Week 12 Too Risky to Bet Dolphins/Colts: Sides are Bitter but Total Looks Sweet
Dolphins (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) vs. Colts (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)
Sunday, 4:25 PM ET (CBS)
If You Must Bet: Over
Best Line Offered: Bovada
Early in the season the Dolphins were livin’ large and in charge, holding court atop a chunk of AFC East real estate routinely reserved for the perennial champs, the New England Patriots. But much has happened since then and now the Dolphins are desperate to stay above .500 while the Patriots are once again looking down at all their divisional rivals. Miami is coming off a 31-12 loss to Green Bay and must now face another daunting offense led by Andrew Luck.
Having notched four consecutive victories, the Colts have gone from the outhouse to the penthouse…. well, maybe not exactly the penthouse as their record is only 5-5, but perhaps a charming two bedroom in a nice neighborhood. If Andrew Luck isn’t completely healthy then he’s fooling everyone because he is finally playing like it. Indianapolis is averaging 36 points per game over their last five and even their defense looks much improved, especially last week in their 38-10 smashing of the Titans.
So, with two teams trending in such polar opposite directions, the Colts would seem to be the clear choice in this one. However, the NFL odds board is the ultimate leveler of the playing field and, after taking a gander, we see that this number has dropped from an opener of Indy -10 ½ to where it sits this Thanksgiving Day at -7 ½ off of reports that Dolphins’ quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be under center after spending six weeks on the shelf with an injured shoulder.
And that is one of the primary reasons why betting either side is risky business because we don’t know what version of Ryan Tannehill we will see. If Miami was completely out of the playoff picture then maybe Tannehill sits a few more weeks but with a postseason berth still a possibility, albeit remote, he returns. In addition, these teams have not faced each other in several years and therefore there is no recent history to analyze.
With that, we turn to the Miami/Indianapolis total as one of our NFL picks in Week 12. Despite a solid outing last week against the Titans, the Colts’ defense is ranked 18th in the league in points allowed which means if Tannehill is even a shadow of his former self then there are points in the offing. Add to that, the Dolphins defense checks in at 22nd in that same category which should be easy pickins’ for Andrew Luck and his friends T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron.
Here are just a few stats to consider as well:
- Over is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games following an ATS win.
- Over is 6-2 in Colts last 8 vs. AFC.
- Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games overall.
- Over is 7-3 in Colts last 10 games following a straight up win.
- Over is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games in Week 12.
- Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games following a bye week.
- Over is 8-3 in Dolphins last 11 games in November.
Stay away from either side and go over in this one on Sunday. You won’t be sorry.