Our choice daily NBA pick looks towards the clash between Eastern Conference playoff contender Detroit Pistons as they take on the Western Conference hopeful San Antonio Spurs. As it stands, at the time of writing (Wednesday, February 27, 2019), the pair are on the cusp of the postseason. Inside the race, but by no means assured of a berth just yet. There’s all to play for in this inter-Conference clash.
Top-rated sportsbooks, such as BetOnline, serve up this matchup delicately on the NBA odds board with the Spurs tipped as the -4 favourites against the spread to the Pistons as the +4 underdogs.
On the moneyline, the hosts are listed at -175 while the visiting Pistons are tipped at +155. Finally, In total betting, bookmakers have set the line to an OVER/UNDER of 221 at -110 for the game as a whole. Team Totals are set to 108.5 for the Pistons at -115 and 112.5 for the Spurs at -115.
So with the markets in full swing, let’s break it down for our choice bets to spot on your wagering tickets.
Detroit Pistons (29-30), 7th in playoff race
Detroit boast a losing record on the season but are within a shot of the playoffs this season. Such is the nature of the competition in the east. Based on their 29-30 win-loss record the Pistons boast an overall 49.1% winning ratio and a -0.9 margin of victory on average. On the merit of that stat, it’s no wonder they are the underdogs in this game. That notion is further highlighted by an 11-17 SU record on the road.
But before we discount the Pistons on the road solely by their SU record on the season and on the road, it’s worth noting that they take a three-game winning streak to San Antonio comprised of wins over Atlanta, Miami and Indiana. The former two were road wins before defeating the Pacers at home 113-109.
Crucially, the Pistons boast an 8-2 SU record in their last ten games, which bodes well in terms of form as they battle for the desired playoff spots in the east. (Positive form suggests confidence that could lead to an upset in the context of NBA odds. Worth taking stock of before finalising your NBA picks, don’t you think?
From a basketball betting perspective, the Pistons have been money in recent weeks. Over the course of their 8-2 SU record in their last ten they’ve performed rather well against the spread too, covering six of the ten games for their backers. In total betting markets, they cashed on the OVER in seven of the ten games. (Over the course of the aforementioned three game winning streak, the Pistons have put up a total of 357 points (119 on average) to conceding 327 points (109 on average).
San Antonio Spurs (33-29), 8th in playoff race
Although the Spurs boast a positive 33-29 SU record on the season and a solid 22-7 SU record at home, they’re wallowing on a 3-7 SU record in their last ten games, underscored by a woeful three-game losing streak. Based on recent form stats, the NBA odds could be deemed rather misleading. Clearly, form stands in stark contrast to what the NBA odds are suggesting.
Granted, they’re coming off a long road trek – eight straight on the road. Winning on the road is the ultimate challenge for any team and when that goes awry one wonders what it does to a team’s confidence as a whole. Is home turf enough to snap this negative trend or will their woes continue as a result of low confidence and general frustration at the way their season has taken quite the negative turn at this crucial stage.
We’ll see what the Spurs are made of in this game. Whether they can stem the tide of losses with a home win. But it won’t be easy against a team that looks to be gaining in confidence.
It’s worth noting the Spurs are only 32-20-0 ATS on the season with a 0.4 margin of victory, a stat that has admittedly taken a hit over the course of their last ten games. At home, the Spurs strike more attractive pose with and 18-11-0 ATS record and a 6.9 margin of victory. As home favourites, they are 11-10-0 ATS with a 7.8 margin of victory.
NBA Betting Verdict: The question is whether the NBA odds provide an accurate picture of this matchup. If we look at just form the resounding answer must be a NO. As such, the Pistons practically leap off the page as the attractive bet for the upset at +155 on the moneyline.
Granted beating the Spurs at home will be no mean trick but, let’s face it, it’s not impossible. After all, the Spurs beat the Pistons in Detroit so it might be a bit of a sweet payback, aided along by poor recent form for the home team.
For those bettors that are averse to going against the Spurs at home in principle then perhaps an ATS bet is in order. Here, we’re of the opinion the Pistons are the better bet to cover at +4 –(115). This is because the Spurs haven’t held nerve as the home favourites in spread betting over the course of the season and they’ve managed to cover just once in their last eleven games and just six times in their last 20 games.
NBA Picks: Pistons +4 (-115)