The Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor super-fight is the first event of its kind. Boxing's biggest star takes on the UFC's kingpin in what would appear to be a mismatch on paper.
The betting markets have a mind of their own, however, as the numbers shared by A+ rated online sportsbook Pinnacle reveal.
Where the Line Opened
Pinnacle first posted the Mayweather vs. McGregor market on June 14. Mayweather opened at -1000, so a $1,000 wager would have to be placed to win $100; the odds reflect an 88% chance of winning. McGregor opened at +673, so every $100 bet returned $673, and McGregor's probability of winning at this odds level reflects just 12%.
How the Mayweather vs. McGregor Line Changed Over Time
As news of the fight spread through the media and reverberated through SBR Forum (a community of online sports bettors) the odds ranged as short as -1417 for Mayweather (90% likelihood of victory) and +858 for McGregor (10% chance). As thousands of bets continued to roll in across the industry, bookmakers across the board slashed the odds down dramatically: at Pinnacle for instance, Mayweather's odds dropped to -400 (77% chance) and McGregor +328 (23% chance).
Betting Consensus (as of Friday 8/25)
Over 8.5 Rounds
Over – 63%
Under – 37%
The betting consensus factoring in all sportsbooks on SBR Odds reflects the below consensus:
Over 8.5 Rounds
Over – 52%
Under – 48%
Pinnacle's Trading Director Marco Blume had the following to say regarding the bout: "Pinnacle is the sharpest sportsbook on the planet. Our closing lines, generated via a mixture of sophisticated models and exceptionally skilled trading, offer the most accurate assessment of the underlying probability of a huge range of sporting events. However, when it comes to Mayweather vs McGregor, I can hold up my hand and say that we are not entirely sure what the price should be. This event has no precedent and therefore no historical data. Without data we have no model and so we are simply letting the market guide us. In this rarest of circumstances I will be watching the event as eagerly as any bettor out there, enjoying the spectacle and the uncertainty of the outcome."
Mayweather vs. McGregor Prop Bets
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