Oscars Nomination Day: How Did Betting Odds Fair?

Preparations for the 97th Academy Awards ceremony on Sunday, March 2 are in full swing after some recent setbacks, including the recent LA wildfires, which delayed the nominations announcement twice. From a glance, "Emilia Perez" leads the nominations tally with 13 nominations across all categories, followed by "The Brutalist" and "Wicked" with a joint 10 nominations.
Did these nominations line up with what our best sports betting sites predicted before the announcement? Let’s take a look.
Oscars Best Picture nominations
Pre-nomination Oscars odds posted by FanDuel Canada as of January 17 show that some significant underdogs managed to snag a nomination while some expected Oscars darlings weren’t nominated at all.
The first difference is that out of the top eight movies posted on FanDuel’s betting platform, "Sing Sing" didn't receive a nomination despite having odds of +750 to win Best Picture. Meanwhile, outsider "A Complete Unknown" with odds of +1800 to win the award, earned itself a nomination.
"The Brutalist" was the favorite amongst bettors to win Best Picture with odds of -170, followed by "Conclave" and "Emilia Perez" with odds of +240, and "Anora" at +430.
Oscars Best Director nominations
Another popular category among bettors is Best Director, with Sean Baker, Brady Corbet, James Mangold, Jacques Audiard, and Coralie Fargeat nominated for their respective movies.
Betting odds from FanDuel Canada show Brady Corbet as the favorite to win Best Director, with odds at -230 as of January 17 for his work on "The Brutalist." Sean Baker was another favorite to win with odds of +210 for directing "Anora," and Jaques Audiard had odds of +340 for "Emilia Perez."
However, other favorites from January 17 missed out on a nomination, with Dennis Villeneuve at +340 and Edward Berger at +430 not making the cut. Villeneuve directed "Dune 2," while Berger directed "Conclave."
Outsiders like Coralie Fargeat for "The Substance" picked up a nomination despite having odds of +1600 to win the award. At the same time, James Mangold earned a nomination for his work on "A Complete Unknown", despite having odds of +4100 to win the award just a few days ago.
Oscars Best Actor nominations
The Best Actor nominations will be no surprise to bettors, with little change in the top five odds. Adrien Brody, Timothee Chalamet, Colman Domingo, Ralph Fiennes, and Sebastian Stan were all nominated for Best Actor, with the only surprise coming from Sebastian Stan’s nomination.
Bettors had odds of +1000 for Stan’s leading role in "A Different Man" to win. However, the actor was instead nominated for his portrayal of President Donald Trump in "The Apprentice," which had odds of +2300 on FanDuel to win the award.
Recent controversy surrounds this nomination, as now-President Trump took to his social media app Truth Social to call out the film’s release for “pure malicious defamation” during his campaign and calling the people behind the film “human scum.”
Oscars Best Actress nominations
Despite the one change in the Best Actor category, bettors on FanDuel Canada were right on the money with its predictions. All nominations for Best Actress were favorites among bettors to win before the nomination announcement, with Demi Moore’s performance in "The Substance" leading the odds at -160.
This is followed by Mikey Madison in "Anora" with odds of -125, Fernanda Torres in "I’m Still Here" with odds of +430, Cynthia Erivo in "Wicked" with odds of +650, and Karla Sofia Gascon in "Emilia Perez" with odds of +750.