Analysis: Because of a huge flow of early money on the NFC champions Philadelphia, on mid-afternoon on Wednesday, a couple of key Offshore sportsbooks moved the Point Spread for Super Bowl LII down ½ a point to 4½. Around 72 hours after the first Super Bowl lines were posted, there is an extremely heavy imbalance of Eagles action, with the SBR.com Consensus numbers showing a Total Amount Wagered of $2,388,483 on the Eagles (93.34%) and just $170,332 on the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots (6.66%). The Average Bet Size also speaks of a Sharps vs. Squares mentality—at least for this early money wagered—with Philadelphia bets averaging $1,139 and New England bets averaging only $97, or about the same comparison as your monthly rent to your electric bill. In the Total Wagers Placed category, the Eagles had seen 2,099 (54.36%) as of 2:47 pm PT to the Patriots 1,762 (45.64%), and, of course these numbers will level out some and a 93% to 7% imbalance definitely has sportsbooks pulling for the Patriots right now, with more line movement downward likely with 11 days left still to bet on this game at The Ship in Minneapolis.
Best Available Lines For Now (Wednesday Afternoon), Best Side, Total Approaches For Next 11 Days
Shopping for the best Side and Total numbers for Super Bowl 52—check out the special Super Bowl LII Props Odds link at SBR for the best Offshore lines—right now only seems wise if you are planning on betting the Eagles or the Over, with the best of those numbers possibly already gone for The Big Game, as the scared call it, with so much on Philadelphia already and a majority of the non-frequent, casual betting lemmings more than willing to back the Underdogs, both taking the points and on the Moneyline. So it seems clear: If you want to bet the Patriots and/or the Under, best to wait as maybe these numbers go as low as (NE minus) 4 in the Sides market and as high as 49 in the Totals market. Right now, the best price on the SBROdds.com NFL betting board for those wanting to take future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (-125 to win Super Bowl 52 MVP, BetOnline) and the Patriots is -4½ -105 at Heritage while the best line available for Nick Foles (+350 to win Super Bowl 52 MVP, BetOnline) and Philadelphia backers is the +5½ -117 at outlier BetMania—which currently sports a B grade the SBR Online Betting Sites Rating Guide—with 5Dimes’ +5 -102 and Pinnacle’s +5 -104 the lowest of the major Offshores in the Sides market for right now.
In the Totals market, after an early quick jump up from an opening 46½ to 48 on Sunday, we’ve seen some bubbling at 48 with several Offshores already having moved their number to 48½ (5Dimes, Bovada, Intertops, WagerWeb) with everyone else still staying on 48….for now. Looking at past Super Bowl and movement over the 2-week betting period and this early sputtering up to as high as 48½, logic dictates more Over money will keep trickling in with many bettors remembering what they saw last (Philadelphia scoring easily on a tough Vikings Defense) and those infrequent, often once-a-year bettors who want action on the game more than likely to back the Over over the Under. So that means if you like and plan on backing the Over, it may be best to bet it now while it the number is still sitting at 48 in some sportsbooks.
In the Moneyline marketplace, there is certainly some perceived value now with Rob Gronkowski (12/1 to win Super Bowl 52 MVP, BetOnline) with heavy Eagles money driving the line down from an opening (New England minus) -255 to as low as (a best line available) -190 at Bovada, a 60-cent difference in just three days of gambling. Those looking for the best price on Zach Ertz (20/1 to win Super Bowl 52 MVP, BetOnline), former Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount (33/1 to win Super Bowl 52 MVP, BetOnline) can find a (current) Moneyline high of +190 at Pinnacle, so the day(s) of getting the Eagles at +200 (or more) on the Moneyline are likely gone for good with this huge early flow of Philadelphia (+110 Team To Score First, 5Dimes) money.
So the early tea leaves look like those who are intent on backing the proud NFC champion Eagles and/or the Over might want to lock into some positions right now while those who will be betting the Danny Amendola (14/1 to win Super Bowl 52 MVP, BetOnline) AFC champion New England (-138 Team To Score First, Heritage; best line available) and/or the Under might be prudent to wait and see how much these numbers change, with 4 and 49 good numbers to react on and even (NE minus) 3½ and 49½ or 50 not out of the realm of possibility with so much volume always bet on the Super Bowl and more than enough time left to get down on the game.
SUPER BOWL LII FREE PROPS BET PICK: 1st Quarter Under 9½ +111 (Pinnacle)