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NCAAF Week 5: Potential Trap, Lookahead, Letdown and Great Games Alert


3 Potential Week 5 Trap Games


Baylor at #5 Oklahoma, Saturday, 3:30 pm ET/12:30 pm PT, ABC, WatchESPN

Why It’s a Trap: After facing Independent Army (2-2 SU) in Week 3, #5 Oklahoma find themselves in a potential Trap spot against Baylor (1-11 SU in 2017) in Big 12 play at Gaylord-Family Memorial Stadium (Grass) in Norman in Week 5 with Kyler Murray (+950 to win Heisman Trophy, 5Dimes) and the Sooners (18/1 to win CFP National Championship, Intertops) possibly looking past this game against the Bears on Saturday and upschedule to their coming Big 12 dates in Week 6 vs Texas in the Red River Showdown (Oct. 6) and then in Week 8 at #17 TCU (OK 3-0 ATS L3) in a game which may determine Oklahoma’s CFP fate (Oct. 20) after a Bye in Week 7.



  • BAYLOR 7-1 ATS L8 vs OKLAHOMA on Road

  • BAYLOR had 54 players Start at least 1 game in 2017, #1 in FBS

  • BAYLOR 4-18 SU L22 Regular Season games


Last year, the Sooners beat Baylor, 49-41 in Week 4, failing to cover ATS as big 27½-point chalks in Waco and have been extremely profitable in the series over the last decade. This year, HC Rhule (5-6 ATS) and Baylor are improved, but after last year’s near-miss and coming off a Week 1-4 slate of FCS Abilene Christian, UTSA, Duke and Kansas, this one in the Sooner State could be a really rude awakening.


  • OKLA 126-27 SU in Big 12 games since 2000

  • OKLA 1-5 ATS L6 as Road Favorites

  • OKLA 44.2 ppg, #11 in FBS


USC at Arizona, 10:30 pm ET/7:30 pm, ESPN2

Why It’s a Trap: Khalil Tate (60/1 to win Heisman Trophy) and Arizona (2-2 SU/ATS) host USC (2-2 SU, 0-4 ATS) in a Pac-12 matchup from Arizona Stadium (FieldTurf) in Tucson in a tough and trap-py spot for the Trojans (11-3 SU in 2017) who have their Bye week coming up next in Week 6 before embarking on a nasty 3-game Pac-12 South Division patch between Colorado-Utah-Arizona State which will likely determine USC’s fate. And with a brutal set-up of a tough UNLV side (Week 1), games (and Losses) at Stanford (Week 2) and Texas (Week 3) before facing Washington State in LA in Week 4 (USC -4½, 51), this squad could be a little bit tired and dismayed after such a milktoast start and falling out of the Top 25 rankings.


  • USC 4-1 ATS L5 vs AZ, 3-1 ATS L4 on Road


  • USC 1-5 ATS L6 Road games

  • AZ 4-1 ATS L5 Home games (BYU SU Loss lone non-cover)


With the pressure on HC Clay Helton (15-24 ATS) and his Trojans not to fall to 2-3 to start the season, this could be a tough environment in the Arizona Sun Corridor, although USC rolled to a 48-14 win there in 2016, covering ATS as 14-point chalks.


#19 Michigan at Northwestern, 4:30 pm ET/1:30 pm PT, FOX

Why It’s a Trap: Former Ole Miss QB Shea Patterson (100/1 to win Heisman Trophy) and Michigan (3-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) head to Ryan Field (Grass) in Evanston, Illinois, just north of Chicago, to face Northwestern (1-2 SU/ATS) in Big Ten play in what could be a Trap spot for the Wolverines who will possibly be worrying about a coming stretch of challenging conference games against Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State (Nov. 3) in one of the Big Ten’s best games of the season (MICH -4½, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook 2018 Games of the Year) at The Big House.


  • NORTHWESTERN and MICH haven’t played since 2014 (MICH 10 NORTH 9)

  • NORTHWESTERN coming off Bye week

  • MICH 3-1-1 ATS Road Favorites ins 2017

  • MICH 57-15-2 in all-time series (W19 straight from 1966-1992)


If oddsmakers are giving the Wildcats enough points, QB Clayton Thorson (6,000+ Passing yards, 37 TDs L2 seasons) and Northwestern may be a live dog to look at on Saturday with Defense, TO’s and Site possibly playing a big part in this game. Having to face Purdue in Week 1, upstart Duke in Week 2, upset-minded Akron in Week 3 and then getting a week off to game plan for the Wolverines may be a good thing for 13th-year HC Fitzgerald (74-70 ATS) against a team simply looking not to lose in Big Ten play before having to face in-State Rivals MSU, Top 10-ranked Penn State and #4 Ohio State at The Horseshoe on Nov. 24 in the conference’s most iconic rivalry.

4 Potential NCAAF Week 5 Lookahead Games

South Alabama at Appalachian State, 3:30 pm ET/12:30 pm PT, ESPN+

Why it’s a Lookahead for Appalachian State: This Sun Belt Conference affair, South Alabama (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) and Appalachian State (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) may be a lookahead spot for the Mountaineers with Arkansas State (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) up next, a team who has sharpened its knife by being dissected by #1 Alabama, although the Red Wolves played a solid game despite the box score, final score and stats. It’s hard for mortal men to beat the perennial FBS College Football Machine that is the Crimson Tide (ranked #1 108 straight weeks). In 2015, Appalachian State won at USA, 34-27 but failed to cover ATS as big 19-point Road favorites. The all-time series is 1-1.


Syracuse at #3 Clemson, 12 pm ET/9 am PT, ABC

Why it’s a Lookahead: After this early game against Syracuse (4-8 SU in 2017), No.3-ranked Clemson (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) will play its final 7 Regular Season games against teams who had winning Records in 2017 (WAKE-NC ST-FSU-LOUIS-BC-DUKE-SO CAR), so the Tigers may be looking past the Orange who are off to a great start (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) and who upset Clemson, 27-24 in the Carrier Dome last season, winning outright as massive 24-point Home underdogs in one of the biggest upsets of the 2017 FBS season. So can they do it again in Death Valley? With QB Kelly Bryant hobbled, it may be in the cards, but HC Dabo Swinney (66-56-2 ATS) and the Tigers have a very good backup in Trevor Lawrence.


Virginia Tech at Duke, 7 pm ET/4 pm PT, ESPN2

Why it’s a Lookahead for VT: With #8 Notre Dame up next in Blacksburg in Week 6 (Oct. 6) in a huge Non-Conference game for both teams, Virginia Tech may not get up enough for upstart Duke (REC) at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham on Saturday in this huge ACC Coastal Division clash. The Hokies (+2.0 tpg, Tied #5) had Week 3 off after Hurricane Florence forced the cancellation of their game with East Carolina in Blacksburg, and with no common week off in the immediate future, both teams will wait to make a final decision on its potential rescheduling. In Week 4, VT suffered one of the biggest upsets of the decade when FCS Old Dominion upset the then-#23 ranked Hokies in Norfolk as 32/1 Money Line underdogs. Four of the L5 Duke-VT games have been close (3, 1, 2, 3, 21), and the way the Blue Devils are playing, this is definitely a game they can win, albeit in a likely low-scoring, chess-like game in the Tar Heel State.


Boise State at Wyoming, 2 pm ET/11 am PT, CBS Sports

Why it’s a Lookahead for Boise State: Sandwiched in-between Oklahoma State (10-3 SU in 2017) in Week 3 and San Diego State (10-3 Su in 2017), this Week 5 date at War Memorial Stadium (Desso Challenge Pro) in Laramie against Wyoming (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) could be tricky even with former Cowboys QB Josh Allen now plying his wares for the Buffalo Bills in the NFL. When these two met last season in MWC play on the ugly Blue Smurf Turf in Boise, the Broncos won 24-14 but failed to cover ATS as big 15½-point Home chalks. Wyoming is 3-0 ATS L3 in this series but just 1-3 ATS the L4 at their Cowboy State home, home on the range, where the deer and the antelope play…


8 Possible NCAAF FBS (I-A) Week 5 Letdown Games


#20 Oregon at Cal   >Ducks off nasty loss to #7 Stanford in Week 4, on Road vs down Cal

Michigan State vs Central Michigan  >Sparty off tough IU, ASU, Utah State games

#1 Alabama vs UL Lafayette   >Tide off Ole Miss, A&M, now Non-Conference

Oklahoma State at Kansas  >Cowboys last “easy game,” KU #1 in TO’s (+4.0)

Rice at Wake Forest  >Demon Deacons off BC-ND w/CLEM next, now Rice (1-11 SU in ‘17)

Texas at Kansas State  >Longhorns off USC-TCU , Wildcats 8-2 ATS L11 series

Florida at #14 Mississippi State  >Bulldogs have SEC nasties Auburn, LSU, A&M up next

Iowa State at #17 TCU  >Frogs face Texas Tech, #5 Oklahoma next two games


A Fine 9 NCAAF FBS Week 5 Must-see Matchups



3 NCAAF Week 5 Money Line Dogs Worth Consideration?


NORTHWESTERN over #19 Michigan

Syracuse over #3 CLEMSON

#25 Brigham Young over #10 WASHINGTON