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NCAAF—College Football Bettor’s Odds and Ends, Bad Beats, ATS Cats & Rats: Week 11


?? #1 Alabama Makes it a Perfect 10-0 ATS vs. 1st Half Line This Year vs Mississippi St.

It was another seemingly ho hum Saturday for #1 Alabama, who blanked Mississippi State, 24-0 in a game in which the Crimson Tide covered ATS for most of its backers and improved its 1st Half ATS Record to 10-0 after leading the Bulldogs 21-0 at the break and which saw Alabama QB and Heisman Trophy Award odds leader Tua Tagovailoa (Knee) leave with an injury in the 3rd Quarter. No. 2 Clemson (-17½) rallied from a momentary 7-3 deficit at #17 Boston College on Saturday night in a 27-7 win in ACC play with Tyler Lawrence and the Tigers outscoring the Eagles, 24-0 to happily stay on pace for a final four (Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl) spot.

The #3-ranked Fighting Irish of Notre Dame were without starting QB Ian Book and had to go with backup Brandon Wimbush against Florida State on Saturday night in South Bend, but Touchdown Jesus was looking down upon the Independent hosts and Wimbush who routed the Seminoles, 42-13 to stay in the CFP hunt. And, #4 Michigan (-37) beat Rutgers 42-7, failing to cover for bettors who would love to throw their keyboards 11 yards (or more) for an incompletion with the top-ranked Defense allowing an early TD on a 80-yard TD run on the Scarlet Knights first scrimmage play on a day which saw the top 11 teams in the AP Top 25 Poll all win.


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Two Advanced NCAAF Lines found over at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook include #4 Michigan being installed as 3-point favorites over #10 Ohio State for their Big Ten showdown at The Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio on Saturday, November 24 (FOX, 12 pm/9 am PT)—the 2018 Games of the Year odds saw Ohio State open up as 7½-point chalks for the game—while in a possible CFP National Championship game between #1 Alabama and #2 Clemson at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara between the two on Monday, January 7 (ESPN, 8 pm ET/5 pm PT) saw the Crimson Tide open us as 8½-point favorites.


Some Bets You Wish You Had (The Easy Money)


Here were some relatively easy NCAAF Sides and Totals winners that we saw on the betting board in Week 11:


  • WAKE FOREST Money Line (+950, Youwager) defeated #23 NC State in their aforementioned ACC upset on Thursday, winning outright as 19½ dogs.

  • DUKE-NC Over 59 was extremely easy money, with the Blue Devils (5-5 O/U) scoring on their last 1H drive to take a lead 35-28 at Half—(1H Total 30)—in an eventual 42-35 Duke win at Durham in ACC play on Saturday in a game that went over by 18 points.

  • GEORGETOWN-BUCKNELL Under 35 (5Dimes) was easy despite the low posted Total with the Hoyas up 7-0 at Half and winning 14-3 in FCS play.

  • PRINCETON-YALE Over 57 was a situation where the two Ivy League FCS teams doubled the Total (57, 5Dimes) with the FCS #11 Tigers trouncing the Bulldogs, 59-43 (PRINCE -15½), covering ATS by the hair on their chinny, chin, chins.

  • DEL ST-MORGAN ST Under 49½ (5Dimes) saw the lowest Final score of the day, with the Bears shutting out the Hornets, 9-0 in an FCS game from Hughes Stadium in Baltimore in MEAC play.

  • NORTHWESTERN Money Line (+355, BetOnline) upset #21 IOWA, 14-10 Saturday in Iowa City in a result which sends the Wildcats to the Big Ten title tilt and saw Northwestern close as high as 11½-point underdogs.

  • THE CITADEL Money Line (+425, Heritage) used a 21-0 4Q to knock off Samford in FCS play, 42-27.

  • YOUNGSTOWN STATE Money Line (+400, Heritage) knocked off Northern Iowa in FCS play, winning outright as 15-point underdogs, 31-10.

  • PITT (-3 to -4) got out to a 10-0 1Q lead, then cruised vs visiting VT, 52-22.

  • DAYTON (-23) ran out to a 21-0 lead after 1Q en route to a 63-20 pasting of MOREHEAD STATE in a game where the Flyers covered ATS by 20 points.

  • SOUTH DAKOTA-DAVIDSON Over 74½ seemed high until you saw the 56-52 (SD) final.

  • EASTERN WASHINGTON was getting 1½ at UC Davis and won by 39, 59-20.

  • CAL POLY Money Line (+315, 5Dimes) upset IDAHO ST 37-14 in FCS action in a game that went way under (30½ points) the closing 81½ Total (5Dimes).

  • TEMPLE-HOUSTON Over 69 was laughable in a 59-49 Owls win at Houston (-3½) in an NCAA Men’s Basketball-like score and game that went over by 39 points.

Bad Beats, Moose, Near-Misses and Some Other Freaky Stuff

  • TEXAS A&M (-13, – 13½) won by 1 in some sportsbooks and by a ½ in others courtesy of a 4Q TD and XP in a Big 12 game in which the Aggies trailed 21-14 at one point (2Q) and won 38-24.

  • JAMES MADISON (-16½) also covered by just ½ on a TD and XP with just 1:21 to go vs Rhode Island in a 48-31 win at Home in Harrisonburg, VA in CAA play.

  • A 49-yard FG with 9:11 to go gave #1 ALABAMA (-21½ to 22½ close) a 24-0 lead in a 24-0 win over #16 MISS STATE and a horrific beat for the few who had the Crimson Tide (-25) and saw Bama fail to score 1st and goal from the Bulldogs 4 yard line, followed by a near-Safety on MSU’s next possession with seconds to go. Alabama is still perfect vs. the 1st Half Point Spread this season (10-0 ATS), leading the Bulldogs 21-0 at the break (ALA -14 1H, Bookmaker).

  • FAU (-20 vs -19 and down) backers either hate Life like myself (laying 20 midweek), are content with a Push or feel smart for betting late (18½ down) after the Owls scored on a 77-yard TD run with 2:19 left to top WKU, 34-15.

  • ROBERT MORRIS backers on the Money Line (35/1, 5Dimes) had their hearts broken in OT when the Colonials missed on a 2-point conversion attempt which would have given them a highly improbable win over the Colonels. Instead, a 40-39 loss although credit for going for 2 on the first possession of OT.

?? Top ATS Cats and Rats After Week 11 (FBS)

ATS Cats: Utah State (9-1-0), Washington State (9-1-0), Buffalo (8-2-0), Fresno State (8-2-0), UAB (8-2-0)


ATS Rats: Louisville (1-9-0), New Mexico State (2-8-0), TCU (2-8-0), Washington (2-8-0), Georgia State (2-7-1)


With an 8-2-0 ATS mark after losing to the betting number to Southern Miss on Saturday (UAB -13½), UAB has the best winning percentage ATS since 2015, going 16-6-1 ATS (72.7%) in the 23 lined games since the Blazers joined FBS in 2017. After being an Independent in three different divisions since 1991, this program shut down in 2014 but was reinstated after a 2-year hiatus in 2017, thus the low number of overall games for UAB who play in Conference USA.

MWC member and current #22 Fresno State (8-2-0 ATS) is an impressive 30-16-1 ATS (65.2%) after a SU and ATS loss on the blue turf of Boise State on Friday night, 24-17 (FRESNO -2½), while MAC member Buffalo (8-2 -0 ATS) is a profitable 27-19-0 ATS (58.7%) since 2015.

As far as teams losing again ATS this year after doing so the past couple of seasons, gold old Hawai’i—another MWC member—is now 3-8-1 ATS after a 2-0-0 ATS start with the Rainbow Warriors 13-33-2 ATS their L48 games 28.3%) still King Rat in terms of the straight blind fade of an FBS College Football team. The American Conference side Connecticut (2-7-0 ATS) has also been pretty bad against the number with the Huskies going 14-31-2 ATS their L46 (30.4%) with Big 12 member TCU (18-32-1-0 ATS) hitting at just a surprising 36.o% clip since 2015 after a SU and ATS loss to #9 West Virginia (-12 to -13½) on Saturday afternoon, 47-10.



LIKELY CFP TEAMS AFTER NCAAF WEEK 11: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan

NEXT 7 WANTING IN: Georgia, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Ohio State, LSU, Washington State, Central Florida