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NCAAF—Breaking Down Week 8’s Biggest Saturday Movers: Why the Movement and Which Side Should You Be On?

NCAAF WEEK 8 HIGHEST POINT SPREAD: TCU -39 -113 vs. Kansas (BetOnline)

LOWEST TOTALS: 44½, Michigan-Penn State, Boise State-Wyoming

HIGHEST TOTAL: 69 (BetOnline), West Virginia-Baylor

BIGGEST MOVER: NT-FAU (Total) ?? 8½-point move up from Open 57½ to 66

Saturday, October 21, 2017

Troy at Georgia State — Open: TROY -11 (BetOnline) ?? Low Now: TROY -7 (-105, Heritage)

Movement Analysis: Sharp money from Sunday through Thursday has been on host Georgia State over Troy in this game, moving the Point Spread down 4 points to as low as (Troy minus) 7 in some sportsbooks for this Sun Belt Conference game Sun Belt Conference game on Saturday from Turner Field (AT) in Atlanta (ESPN3, 2 pm ET/11 am PT). Bettors must have liked the fact that Georgia State (3-2 SU/ATS) has W3 straight SU/ATS—all on the Road—after averaging 5.0 ppg in its first 2 games (Losses), the Panthers have averaged 34.3 ppg their L3 games and will be returning Home to Hotlanta firmly in the Sun Belt race with a 2-0 mark. RB Jordan Chunn (Leg) is listed as Probable for Troy (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) who have gone 0-2 ATS the L2 vs Georgia State and 1-3 ATS L4 meetings since 1992. Noteworthy here, all 6 Troy games have gone Under the posted Total with totals of 37, 44, 51, 39, 45 and 27 points having been scored in Trojans games so far. When these two met last season at Troy, the Trojans won 31-21 but failed to cover as big 20-point Home Favorites.



PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Troy 24 Georgia State 13

NCAAF WEEK 8 MOVERS PICK: Under 49 -107 (Pinnacle)

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech — Open: GT -8½ +100 (BetOnline) ?? Low Now: GT -5 (BetDSI)

Movement Analysis: We stay in Atlanta, where we see a 3½-point move downward on Sharp money on Wake Forest against Georgia Tech in this ACC showdown from Bobby Dodd Stadium (Grass) on Saturday night (ESPNU, 7:30 pm ET/4:30 pm PT). Both teams head in with Injury concerns with Demon Deacons QB John Wofford (Shoulder) missing Wake Forest’s (51.0% Consensus Wagers Placed) last game but listed as Probable for this big affair as is RB Cade Carney while Georgia Tech RB KirVonte Benson (516 Rushing yards, 9.46 ypc, 5 TDs) left last game with a Leg injury and is listed as Questionable here. Another reason this line has moved down 4 points—besides Wake Forest being a pretty darn good football team—are the series Trends which show QB TaQuon Marshall (388 Passing yards, 5 TDs, 0 INT, 541 Rushing yards, 4.5 ypc, 9 TDs), WR Ricky Jeune (18.6 ypc, 3 TDs) and Georgia Tech (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS)—the Yellow Jackets (1,000/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, 5Dimes, down from 5,000/1)—who checked in as the #2 Cat in our latest Top 5 ATS Cats and Rats rankings—to be 0-3 ATS the L3 meetings and 10-6 ATS since 1992 although this will be the first meeting since 2010. This is a game Wake Forest—who covered as big 21-point underdogs at Clemson in a 28-14 loss in Week 7 in their last game and are in the midst of a brutal 5-game patch in its schedule (FSU, @CLEM, @GT, LOU, @ND)—can win potentially win outright. This one should be close.


PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Wake Forest 32 Georgia Tech 30

NCAAF WEEK 8 MOVERS PICK: Wake Forest +5½ (5Dimes)

Fresno State at San Diego State — Open: SDS -11½ (BetOnline) ?? Low Now: SDS -7½

Movement Analysis: The Sharp money has been on another Road Underdog in this MWC game on Saturday night at Qualcomm Stadium (Grass) in San Diego between host San Diego State and upstart Fresno State (CBSSN, 10:30 pm ET/7:30 pm PT) with upstart Fresno State (57.4% Consensus)—the #32 Cat in our latest Top 5 ATS Cats and Rats rankings—seeing enough action at Offshore sportsbooks enough to move the line down 4 points. But can the Bulldogs (4-2 SU, 5-0-1 ATS) possibly upset the host Aztecs (6-6 SU, 3-3 ATS) in this particular spot? After facing #1 Alabama and #12 Washington, Fresno State (+250 Moneyline, BetPhoenix) probably can and the series Trends show the Aztecs to be 1-3-1 ATS L5 overall against Fresno State (8-5 ATS L13 in series since 1992) but a profitable 3-1-2 ATS the L6 at Home in The Plymouth of the West. This is one of those underrated games probably best worth just watching and left all alone at the betting windows with both squads ready after playing fairly tough Schedules to date. Slightest lean Over (47 Over -115, Bovada).



PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: San Diego State 30 Fresno State 27


NCAAF WEEK 8 MOVER TOTALS PICK: Iowa State-Texas Tech Under 68½ -107 (Pinnacle)