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NCAAF—Breaking Down Week 10’s Biggest Saturday Movers: Why the Movement and Which Side Should You Be On?

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Saturday, November 4, 2017

#16 Auburn at Texas A&M — Open: AUB -11 ?? High Now: AUB -15

Movement Analysis: No. 16 Auburn (6-2 SU/3-5 ATS) has seen Sharp money come in on it from Sunday through Thursday, moving the number up 4 points for the Tigers Week 10 SEC game at Texas A&M (5-3 SU/4-3-1 ATS) on Saturday (ESPN, 12 pm ET/9 am PDT) from Kyle Field (Grass) in College Station, Texas. Auburn RB Kamryn Pettway (Fractured Scapula) is listed as Out Indefinitely and may be done for the season for the Plainsmen (77/1to win 2018 CFP Championship, BookMaker) and Head Coach Gus Malzahn’s squad is the highest-ranked 2-Loss team CFP, but the schedule couldn’t be harder if The Devil himself made it with games against #1 Alabama and #2 Georgia on the immediate horizon. This game against the Aggies (3-2 SEC) and their legendary 11th man won’t be easy but Malzahn has said that “…[Texas A&M] is all that matters” to his team and a setback here would definitely kill any remote Conference or CFP hopes for Auburn.

 

 

So this is “Motivation” money in my mind, with the bettors not caring about Pettway’s absence or the Site. The series Trends show a strange and snakelike (but consistent) pattern with the Road team winning outright and SU 5 consecutive times, the L4 times in a row as an outright Road Underdog. So theoretical edge to Auburn, although they are a heavy chalk here with Texas A&M (3-2 ATS L5 vs. Auburn) not as strong as past seasons and the Tigers still needing the Win here in the overall arc of their 2017 Regular Season. although the movement is understood, this seems like too many points to give to a host team who can possibly win here.

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Auburn 33 Texas A&M 26

NCAAF WEEK 10 MOVERS PICK: None


#4 Wisconsin at Indiana — Open: WIS -10 EV (BOL) ?? High Now: WIS -14 +101 (Pinnacle)

Movement Analysis: Another solid 4-point move on early Wisconsin money for the Badgers Big Ten game at Indiana on Saturday (ABC, 12 pm ET/9 am PDT) from The Rock (FieldTurf) in Bloomington, Indiana in a game the visitors must win to stay in the CFP conversation, thus more “Motivation” money, and although we’ve seen a lesser number of large Side moves so far this week, the ones which have moved have moved solidly 4 points (or more) and pretty much settled, for the time being at least until that expected late rush of betting Friday and Saturday up until kickoff. The Trends here show #4 Wisconsin (40/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, BetDSI) is 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings at 3-1 ATS the L4 at Memorial Stadium but Wisconsin seems to have too much trouble completing long downfield passes and although the Defense is solid, seem unbalanced on Offense as their extremely lethargic and sloppy performance at Illinois revealed in Week 9. This Wisconsin team will be beaten very soon.

 

 

The Hoosiers (3-5 SU, 0-5 Big Ten), on the other hand, can pass the football and currently rank #42 in FBS in Passing, averaging a healthy 258.0 ypg behind QBs Peyton Ramsey and Richard Lagow, and despite the winless SU mark in Big Ten play, with a nothing to lose attitude, a helpful Home crowd and a Roster game enough, Indiana (+428 Moneyline BetPhoenix) can definitely win this Week 10 game. The Hoosiers have already played (then-) #2 Ohio State, #4 Penn State, #17 Michigan and #18 Michigan State, so to judge this team by that 0-5 Big Ten record or to simply look at Wisconsin as being unbeaten and motivated and possessing a solid D is deceiving as the Badgers have played an incredibly weak schedule. Passing always matters and it always will, cuz.

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Indiana 27 Wisconsin 25

NCAAF WEEK 10 MOVERS PICK: Indiana +14 +101 (Pinnacle)


#7 Penn St. at #24 Michigan St. — Open: PSU -13 ?? Low Now: PSU -8 -125 (BetOnline)

Movement Analysis: To everything (turn, turn, turn), there is a season (turn turn, turn)…here, the Sharps have been all over LJ Scott and Michigan State (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) like white on rice, moving the Point Spread here down from its opening (Penn State minus) 13 to as low as 8 at one Offshore sportsbook (-125, BetOnline) on the Week 10 NCAA College Football betting board with CFB sports gamblers thinking the Spartan Stadium (Grass) Site, the Spartans upgrade in perceptions, the number itself (too high) and the reality that #7 Penn State’s Big Ten and CFP chances took a big hit last weekend in Week 9 with the Nittany Lions dramatic, Home 1-point Loss to #3 Ohio State. So this pivotal Week 10 game from East Lansing on Saturday afternoon (FOX, 12 pm ET/9 am PDT) has seen its spread move more than other game (5 points) so far, but like the Wisconsin-Indiana game above, this may not end up being such smart money and points could really be at a premium here with Rain in the Forecast.

 

 

Coming off that Loss to the Buckeyes and then having to go on the Road and play a ranked side is tough, but with QB Trace McSorley and Heisman Trophy candidate RB Saquon Barkley (5.6 ypc), Penn State (7-1 SU/ATS) has a big advantage at the key skill position spots on Offense and this is a team which has scored at least 31 points in its L4 games against some decent Big Ten opponents in Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan and Ohio State and that’s no easy task considering how good the Wolverines and Buckeyes Defense have been of late. The Trends reveal the Nittany Lions (25/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, 5Dimes) to be 14-7 SU the L21 meetings in this series with Penn State going 1-3 ATS the L4, despite covering ATS as an 11-point Home Favorite in a 45-12 blowout in State College in the last game of the 2016 season. Penn State will be one of four other reasons we 'll need to think about expanding the CFP system from its current 4 to a more appropriate 8 teams.

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Penn State 31 Michigan State 18

NCAAF WEEK 10 MOVERS PICK: Penn State -8 -125 (BetOnline)


NCAA Football Week 10 Significant Sides Movers (Thursday, 5 pm ET)

?? #24 MISSISSIPPI ST opened -28 vs. UMass, up 4 points to -32

?? SOUTH ALABAMA opened -2½ -115 vs. ULL, up 3½ to -6 (BookMaker)

 

?? ARKANSAS opened -26½ vs South Carolina, down 3 points to -23½

?? TULANE opened -9 vs Cincinnati, down 4 points to -5 (-106, Pinnacle)

?? #12 WASHINGTON open -21 vs Oregon, down 4 points to -17 (BookMaker)

?? FRESNO STATE opened -11 vs Brigham Young, down 4 points to -7 (-130, BetOnline)

 

 

NCAA Football Week 10 Significant Totals Movers (Thursday, 5 pm ET)
 

?? #8 Oklahoma at #11 Oklahoma State opened 73, up 4½ points to 77½ (BetPhoenix, Skybook, BetMania)

?? Texas #10 TCU opened 41½, up 5½ points to 47

?? #15 UCF at SMU opened 70, up 4½ points to 74½ (BetDSI)

?? SDS at SJS opened 47, up 4 points to 51

?? BYU at Fresno State opened 45, up 6 points to 51 (Bovada)

 

 

?? Army at Air Force opened 63, down 7 points to 56

?? South Carolina at #2 Georgia opened 49, down 4 points to 45

?? Wake Forest at #5 Notre Dame opened 60, down 5½ to 54½ (BetDSI)

?? Utah State at New Mexico opened 59½, down 4 points to 55½

?? Hawaii at UNLV opened 63½, down 5½ points to 58 (YouWager, Heritage)

?? UTEP at MTSU opened 49, down 4 points to 45

?? Southern Miss at Tennessee opened 54, down 5½ points to 48½

?? #19 LSU at #1 Alabama opened 51½, down 3 points to 48½

 

NCAAF WEEK 10 SIDES MOVERS PICKS: Indiana +14 +101 (Pinnacle), Penn State -8 -125 (BetOnline)