A system bet rears its head yet again, and with a winning ATS record on the year betting Overs on totals below 7 our MLB handicapper is not about to change his tune.
Clayton Kershaw takes the mound again for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and I will again take the Over with him as it falls below 7. Sitting at 6.5 at 5Dimes last week, the last total for Kershaw easily went over in a 9-1 loss to Colorado Rockies. It’s at 6.5 runs again here against a weaker offense in the San Francisco Giants, but I am not about to change the tactic in September. These two starters are a combined 5-1 O-U in their last six starts, after all, and Kershaw was not himself in his last game as he allowed 4 earned runs over just 3.2 innings pitched.
Starting for the Giants in this game is Johnny Cueto, who has given up at least 3 runs in each start against Los Angeles this year. When you are looking at a total of 6.5, giving up 3 runs as a starter is going to be good enough. This will be Cueto’s 3rd start back since returning to the rotation in a season in which he has a 4.60 FIP and worst in a decade 3.07 BB/9 rate. I’m not going to overthink a system bet too much, and instead grab the Over of 6.5 before it hit 7 as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day.
MLB Pick: Over 6.5 Runs, Best Line Offered, 5Dimes
With the Cleveland Indians nearing a historic run, our MLB handicapper likes the value that the skewed lines present when considering getting the underdog run line.
The lines being offered on the Indians right now are crazy pants. The Tigers aren’t as good as the Indians of course, but the fact that we can get them at +380 on the moneyline is a rare occurrence. This is baseball, and baseball is ‘going to baseball’. What does that mean? It means that in a sport where a 30% success rate is considered great the level of randomness should get our spidey senses perked up when seeing a line so out of whack.
My thesis for picking this game out of all in the streak is that Matt Boyd has a career ERA against Cleveland of 2.41 with a WHIP of 1.28. That kind of logic is weak of course, considering Boyd has a 5.15 FIP at home this year. But Corey Cluber has also lost 2 out of 4 meetings with the Tigers this year, and one of his wins was lucky as he gave up six earned runs in it back in April. I won’t pick the Indians to lose, but I can’t pass up getting +170 on the run line backing Detroit as one of my Tuesday MLB selections.
MLB Pick: Detroit Tigers RL, Best Line Offered, 5Dimes
2017 MLB Record, 195-172-10, +9.76 units (1 pending)