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MLB Picks: Athletics & Pirates to go ‘Under’ 7.5

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The third and final game of this interleague series betweenOakland (54-37) and Pittsburgh (53-36) commences on Wednesday night. Oakland is a perfect 11-0 all-time in this series. Pittsburgh is now 11-5in interleague play after losing their last two games to Oakland.

Tommy Milone will get the start for the A’s while FranciscoLiriano takes the mound for the Pirates.

Check out our Wednesday Morning MLB Odds & Betting Lines Report.

Oakland A’s & Tommy Milone

Image previewMilone owns an overall record of 8-7 with a 4.11 ERA and1.22 WHIP. Milone has a dramatic home/road dichotomy over the last twoseasons; his road numbers are simply terrible. In 29 road starts, he hasa 4.59 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 170.2 innings pitched. To compare, Miloneowns a 3.11 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 159.1 innings pitched in 23 home starts. 

Milone is also an extreme fly ball pitcher which is why hestruggles so much when away from Oakland Coliseum. The A’s home park ispitcher-friendly as it suppresses runs at -14% which helps negate Milone’s highfly ball rate of 47%. Milone catches a break in this matchup versus the Piratesbecause PNC Park in Pittsburgh is actually more pitcher-friendly than OaklandColiseum with a -17% park factor. It’s one of the most extreme pitcher’sparks in all of Major League Baseball. 

The Oakland lefty has a strong projection for this start inPittsburgh. Based on the underlying skills and advanced metrics I use,Milone shows a line of 2.8 earned runs, a 3.89 ERA and 1.14 WHIP against thePirates in this game. 

Oakland’s offense has been hit or miss over their last tengames. The A’s have scored 6 runs or more in four games while scoring 3runs or less in six games. Over the last two weeks, the A’s are hittingjust .240 as a team. Against left-handed starters, Oakland is hittingjust .245 this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates & Francisco Liriano

Francisco Liriano comes into tonight’s game with an 8-3record and a solid 2.20 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. At home, Liriano has beenfantastic with a 4-1 record and a sterling 2.05 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. In30.2 innings pitched at home, Liriano has allowed just 7 total runs. 

Liriano’s numbers have been even better over his last threestarts. He is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 21.2 inningsof work. The lone knock on Liriano is his inability to go deep in games,reaching the 7th inning in just three of his eleven starts this season. However, Liriano is coming off a complete game win over the Cubs in which hegave up just 2 earned runs on 4 hits while striking out 7. 

The Pittsburgh lefty has a strong projection for this startagainst Oakland. Based on the underlying skills and advanced metrics Iuse, Liriano shows a line of 2.4 earned runs, a 3.32 ERA and 1.12 WHIP againstthe A’s in this game. 

Pittsburgh’s offense has been mired in a major slump;they’ve scored 3 runs or less in seven of their last ten games. Over thelast two weeks, the Pirates are hitting just .240 as a team. Pittsburghhas struggled against left-handed starters all season as they hit only .235against them.

Share your thoughts on tonight’s A’s & Pirates pitching matchup.

Betting Odds & Prediction

The current MLB odds Pittsburgh -130 with a total of 7 Over -120 with some sportsbooks now posting7.5 Over +100. Based upon the solid numbers of the starting pitchers, thestrong park factor (-17%), and the struggling offenses we recommend playingthis game Under the total, especially at 7.5 or higher.

MLB Picks: Back the ‘Under’ 7.5 or higher

For a free play on this game’s Money Line take a look at Jeff Grant’s MLB Picks: Bet Pirates -129 vs. Oakland A’s.