MLB Betting Trends: Shohei Ohtani and Manny Machado Early MVP Favorites

A once-in-a-lifetime kind of player remains at the forefront of the American League MVP race, while the early leader in the National League is a productive veteran who has stepped into a leadership role on a contending team.

Shohei Ohtani continues to defy all expectations for the Los Angeles Angels and the preseason favorite continues to have the shortest odds in the American League MVP race.

Manny Machado has burst out of the gate for the San Diego Padres, rising to the challenge in the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr., and has become the favorite in a tight National League MVP race.

Here are the latest American League and National League MVP odds from BetMGM.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR here.

American League MVP

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/3TtYa/1/

Shohei Ohtani (+210)

Last year’s American League MVP has nine home runs and six stolen bases but is not hitting like he did last season, with a slash line of .256/.319/.459.

That is fine, but hardly MVP stuff. The plot twist is that he has been even better as a pitcher this season, posting a 2.82 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.16 FIP, and 12.4 K/9 in seven starts.  While Ohtani is on 11.9% of the AL MVP tickets at BetMGM, which ranks third, he is bringing in 25.4% of the handle, which is easily the highest percentage in the market.

Aaron Judge (+350)

Through the first 13 games of the season, the New York Yankees outfielder had just one home run. In 28 games since then, he has slugged 16 and is crushing the ball to a slash line of .314/.386/.692. He is leading MLB with 17 home runs and tied for the American League lead with 35 runs scored.

https://twitter.com/Yankees/status/1526752326492557313

The biggest concern with Judge during his career has been staying healthy but he is showing what kind of impact he can have when he stays in the lineup. Although Judge is on 8.6% of the tickets at BetMGM, he is drawing just 5.2% of the handle.

Mike Trout (+450)

After nine straight seasons as the preseason favorite for American League MVP, the Angels center fielder had the second shortest odds this year (behind Ohtani). Trout has mashed 12 home runs and his slash line — .328/.436/.693 — is preposterous. His 1.129 OPS and 226 OPS+ would be career highs, and he still has longer odds than Ohtani and Judge despite leading the American League with a 3.0 fWAR. While Trout is only on 5.1% of the tickets at BetMGM, that covers 11.1% of the handle, which is third most behind Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1000)

The aforementioned Guerrero Jr. had a breakthrough season in 2021 but has regressed some this year and is not driving flyballs at near the rate that he did last season.

Thus, after hitting 48 home runs last season, he has eight home runs this season with a slash line of .263/.356/.447. That is okay, but okay is nowhere near acceptable for Guerrero so he has gone from hanging right with Ohtani and Trout to falling well behind. There was significant optimism around Vladdy, too, as he ranks second in the percentage of tickets (12.5%) and handle (14.3%) at BetMGM.

Byron Buxton (+1200)

The talented Minnesota Twins center fielder has 11 home runs, but a 0-for-19 skid has dropped his average to .211.

Health is the biggest hurdle for Buxton to overcome, but he is not going to win the MVP with a .211 batting average. He is on 9.9% of the tickets for 6.2% of the handle.

Jose Ramirez (+1600)

A perennial MVP candidate, the Cleveland Guardians third baseman has 11 home runs and 43 RBI in 41 games while slashing .293/.386/.626. That would be the best offensive season of his already impressive career.

It might get lost on a losing team, but Ramirez has a 2.5 fWAR and that puts him on pace for MVP consideration. He is on 4.8% of the tickets for 4.8% of the handle.

National League MVP

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nRKna/1/

Manny Machado (+225)

The Padres third baseman has hit eight home runs and stolen seven bases but has vaulted to the front of the NL MVP race with a slash line of .368/.441/.601. He is on 9.1% of the tickets for a whopping 26.5% of the handle at BetMGM and is leading MLB with a 3.5 fWAR.

https://twitter.com/MLBONFOX/status/1528507906550861826

A word of caution: Machado has a .416 batting average on balls in play so that .368 batting average is almost sure to come down.

Mookie Betts (+600)

After dropping off the pace offensively last season, Betts has rebounded this year. He is tied for the National League lead with 12 home runs and his 44 runs lead MLB with a slash line of .292/.385/.578.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be contenders and Betts has a chance to put up huge numbers in that lineup, so he will remain in the hunt. He is on 6.0% of the tickets at BetMGM, good for 7.1% of the handle.

Nolan Arenado (+600)

A productive hitter and elite defender, Arenado has hit nine home runs and has a strong slash line of .288/.351/.545, which is not as productive as his best years with the Colorado Rockies. Although Arenado is on 8.8% of the tickets at BetMGM, he is drawing just 5.0% of the handle, so he does not have big support in the market.

Bryce Harper (+1000)

Last year’s National League MVP has 10 home runs and six stolen bases but has been more aggressive at the plate, resulting in his lowest on-base percentage since 2014. Nevertheless, a slash line of .302/.352/.617 is still impressive and if he can get the Philadelphia Phillies into contention, Harper will have a chance to win again.

The main challenge for Harper is that he is dealing with a slight tear in his elbow and has been a designated hitter for the past five weeks as a result. He is named on 15.4% of the tickets at BetMGM, the highest in the market, for 12.3% of the handle which ranks second.

Juan Soto (+1000)

When Fernando Tatis Jr. was knocked out of the lineup by his broken wrist, Soto was the favorite for NL MVP. But he has not been producing to his typical levels since. He has eight home runs and is hitting .241/.381/.443, which is fine for mere mortals, but this is not up to the standard that Soto has set in his career.

Trade rumors have also surfaced with word that Soto is not going to sign an extension with the bottom-dwelling Washington Nationals. He is on 5.1% of the tickets for 7.7% of the handle at BetMGM.

Freddie Freeman (+1000)

The veteran first baseman is slashing .302/.392/.469 but has just three home runs, which makes his MVP case more challenging.

Freeman was National League MVP in 2020 and has a couple of other Top 5 finishes. If the power returns to Freeman’s bat, he might be able to force his way into the mix but he is an afterthought at this point, on just 1.5% of the tickets for 1.0% of the handle.

Pete Alonso (+1100)

With the New York Mets running away with the National League East, naturally, there will be interest in their power hitting first baseman. Alonso has 11 home runs and 41 RBI in 45 games, but his slash line of .282/.347/.511 is not quite the stuff of an MVP just yet. He is on 4.6% of tickets for 4.6% of the handle.

Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1300)

Although he got a late start to the season because he was recovering from a torn ACL, and he started slowly in his first few games back, Acuna Jr. is starting to warm up. He only has two home runs in 17 games but there is some promise in a slash line of .292/.400/.446, especially if his typical power starts to return.

Acuna Jr. might have potentially depressed value now and is on 5.8% of the tickets at BetMGM for just 4.7% of the handle.

Make sure to keep an eye on our Live Odds page throughout the week to get the best lines possible and connect with others in the SBR community on our popular sports betting forum