NY Yankees (Sabathia) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Wilson)
That recent drought now means that the Bronx Bombers have scored 2 or less runs in 13 of their 24 games this season. No wonder they are 8-16 (tied with Minnesota for the fewest wins in the American League). In the process, the Yankees have been outscored 116-82. That negative margin of 34 runs is tied with Houston for the worst margin in the American League. Until the New Yorkers snap out of their slide, we are eager to fade them, particularly in favorable matchups and, as you will read later on in this analysis, do so at a run line price (as we did last night which netted us big profit).
A look at the OPS numbers for the year to date shows that Baltimore holds a clear advantage. Entering this series, Baltimore had the No. 5 batting OPS at .787 and the No. 7 bullpen with a .619 OPS. No wonder the Orioles have won 60% of their games (including 10-3 on this field)! At the other end of the spectrum is a Yankees team, whose poor offensive performance is accurately represented by the only 25th best OPS in batting with a .670 mark. The bullpen has been mediocre with a .697 OPS (16th in MLB).
Maybe the Yankees are being given credit in this matchup out of respect for the lifetime work of their starter today, C.C. Sabathia. But he is far from the pitcher he was in his prime. For the season, Sabathia is 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA. After dominating Baltimore in many seasons, in his last 8 starts against the Birds, Sabathia is 0-5 with a 5.64 ERA. After working out of the bullpen, Baltimore starter, Wilson, has made a pair of starts in which he is a far more respectable 1-0 with a 3.06 ERA.
The Run Line
Turning our attention to the run line aspect of this game, we find we can make the play with confidence and get a big return in the process. The NYY OPS numbers support the fact that 12 of their 16 losses have come by 2 or more runs, including 7 of 9 on the road. Conversely, the strong Baltimore offensive numbers confirm the fact that Baltimore has won 12 of 15 victories by 2 or more runs.
In a bit of a PERCEPTION/REALITY game, in which the big names of NYY and Sabathia let them be overpriced, we gladly step in with favorable numbers across the board and do so at the run line underdog price. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB pick on the Baltimore Orioles tonight.
Free MLB Pick: Orioles -128
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline