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EPL—How to Bet Futures to Get Early Value


Examining Some Oft-Overlooked English Premier League Outright Markets

The 2016/17 English Premier League begins on Sunday and before the 25th season starts play with Matchweek 1, let’s take a look at three Futures Book (Outrights) where some perceived early value may be found, with most sport gamblers (punters) often more well-versed with the Winner (to win EPL championship), especially after last season and the truly miraculous story of Leicester City, which ended up putting a little dent in some European sportsbooks with the Foxes actually changing the prices for Futures Book odds in this market probably forever, much like the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves did back in 1991 to MLB Futures Book prices in sportsbooks here in Las Vegas. As Ian Hunter once sang, “Once bitten twice shy, babe.”

Anyway, here are some of the highest odds in the Relegation, Relegation Treble and Top Goalscorer Futures Book marketplaces for the Premier League for this upcoming 38-match season and we’ll offer up some picks and some logic in the Conclusion below. Notice in this Relegation Outrights marketplace directly below the big jump in odds from 40/1 (West Ham United) all the way up to 600/1 (Tottenham Hotspur), showing once again and is recent past seasons that England’s top flight of football is perceived to be a its normal six big-club race between the two Mancunians (Manchester City, Manchester United), the three London clubs (Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur) and that Little Engine That Could from Merseyside, Liverpool, with Manager Jürgen Klopp having some experience with the Reds, their Roster and English culture under his 49-year-old German belt. All you need is Klopp.

EPL Highest Current Relegation Outright Odds (Aug. 8)

Hull City 8/13 (Stan James)

Burnley Even (Bet365, SkyBet, Sportingbet, 888sport, Unibet, 32 Red, 188Bet)

Middlesbrough 12/5 (Betfair Exchange)

Watford +210 (Betstars, Paddy Power)

West Bromwich Albion 13/5 (Paddy Power)

Sunderland 13/5 (Sportingbet, Marathon)

Swansea City 7/2 (Almost everywhere)

Bournemouth 7/2 (SkyBet, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, 188Bet)

Crystal Palace 13/2 (Bet365, 10Red)

Stoke City 11/1 (Betway)

Leicester City 14/1 (Everywhere)

Southampton 20/1 (Betfred, Stan James, Coral, William Hill, Betbright, 188Bet)

Everton 35/1 (Paddy Power)

West Ham United 40/1 (Sky Bet, Betstars)

Tottenham Hotspur 600/1 (10Red, 188Bet)

Liverpool 700/1 (10Red)

Chelsea 750/1 (Bet365)

Arsenal 1,000/1 (Several places)

Manchester United 1,000/1 (Betfred)

Manchester City 1,000/1 (Several places)

EPL Highest Current Relegation Treble Outright Odds (Aug. 8)

Burnley/Hull City/Middlesbrough 20/1 (Stan James)

Burnley/Hull City/Watford 22/1 (Stan James)

Burnley/Hull City/West Bromwich Albion 28/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Stan James)

Burnley/Hull City/Sunderland 33/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Stan James)

Burnley/Hull City/Swansea City 33/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Stan James)

Hull City/Sunderland/Watford 33/1 (Stan James)

Hull City/Sunderland/West Bromwich Albion 40/1 (Everywhere)

Hull City/Watford/West Bromwich Albion 33/1 (Everywhere)

Bournemouth/Burnley/Hull City 40/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Betfair)

Burnley/Middlesbrough/Sunderland 40/1 (Everywhere)

Burnley/Middlesbrough/West Bromwich Albion 33/1 (Sky Bet)

Hull City/Middlesbrough/Sunderland 40/1 (Everywhere)

Hull City/Middlesbrough/West Bromwich Albion (Stan James)

Hull City/Swansea City/Watford 50/1 (Almost everywhere)

Hull City/Swansea City/West Bromwich Albion 50/1 (Almost everywhere)

Bournemouth/Hull City/Middlesbrough 50/1 (Almost everywhere)

Bournemouth/Hull City/Watford 50/1 (Almost everywhere)

Burnley/Crystal Palace/Hull City 50/1 (Sky Bet)

Burnley/Sunderland/Watford 50/1 (Sky Bet, Stan James)

Burnley/Watford/West Bromwich Albion 50/1 (Sky Bet)

Hull City/Middlesbrough/Swansea City 50/1 (Stan James)

Hull City/Sunderland/Swansea City 66/1 (SkyBet, Boylesports, Stan James, Betfair)

Bournemouth/Burnley/Middlesbrough 66/1 (SkyBet)

Bournemouth/Hull City/Sunderland 66/1 (Almost everywhere)

Bournemouth/Hull City/West Bromwich Albion 66/1 (Sky Bet)

Burnley/Hull City/Stoke City 66/1 (Boylesports)

Burnley/Middlesbrough/Swansea City 66/1 (Sky Bet)

Burnley/Sunderland/West Bromwich Albion 66/1 (Stan James)

Crystal Palace/Hull City/Middlesbrough 66/1 (Sky Bet)

Bournemouth/Burnley/Sunderland 80/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair)

Bournemouth/Burnley/Watford 80/1 (Sky Bet, betfair)

Bournemouth/Burnley/West Bromwich Albion 80/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair)

Bournemouth/Hull City/Swansea City 80/1 (SkyBet, Boylesports, Betfair)

Burnley/Crystal Palace/Middlesbrough 80/1 (SkyBet, Boylesports, Betfair)

Burnley/Sunderland/Swansea City 80/1 (SkyBet, Boylesports, Betfair)

Burnley/Sunderland/Watford 80/1 (SkyBet, Boylesports, Betfair)

Burnley/Swansea City/Watford 80/1 (Betfair)

Burnley/Swansea City/West Bromwich Albion 80/1 (Sky Bet)

Crystal Palace/Hull City/Sunderland 80/1 (Sky Bet, Stan James, Betfair)

Crystal Palace/Hull City/Watford 80/1 (SkyBet, Boylesports, Betfair)

Crystal Palace/Hull City/West Bromwich Albion 80/1 (SkyBet, Boylesports, Betfair)

Hull City/Stoke City/Middlesbrough 80/1 (SkyBet, Boylesports, Betfair)

Middlesbrough/Sunderland/Watford 80/1 (SkyBet)

Middlesbrough/Sunderland/WBA 80/1 (SkyBet, Boylesports, Stan James, Betfair)

Middlesbrough/Watford/WBA 80/1 (SkyBet)

Hull City/Stoke City/Watford 100/1 (SkyBet)

Sunderland/Watford/West Bromwich Albion 100/1 (SkyBet)

EPL Highest Current Top Goalscorer Odds (Aug. 8)

Sergio Agüero, Manchester City +350 (Many places including William Hill)

Harry Kane, Tottenham Hotspur 7/1 (Bet365)

Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Manchester United 9/1 (Most places including Bet365)

Romelu Lukaku, Everton 14/1 (10Red)

Jamie Vardy, Leicester City 18/1 (Betstars, Paddy Power, Coral, 1888Bet)

Diego Costa, Chelsea 20/1 (Coral)

Michy Batshuayi, Chelsea 22/1 (Betfred, 888Sport, Unibet, 32Red)

Daniel Sturridge, Liverpool 25/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, 888Sport, William Hill, 32Red)

Olivier Giroud, Arsenal 28/1 (888Sport)

Alexis Sánchez, Liverpool 31/1 (Betfair Exchange)

Anthony Martial, Manchester United 50/1 (Bwin)

Wayne Rooney, Manchester United 50/1 (Bwin)

Sadio Mané, Liverpool 50/1 (Almost everywhere)

Eden Hazard, Chelsea 66/1 (Betfair Exchange)

Ahmed Musa, Leicester City 66/1 (Several places)

Vincent Janssen, Tottenham Hotspur 70/1 (Betfair Exchange)

Kelechi Iheanacho, Manchester City 75/1 (Betfair Exchange)

Christian Benteke, Liverpool 89/1 (Betfair Exchange)

Jermain Defoe, Sunderland 100/1 (Betdaq)

Other Niche Futures Markets (Outrights) in Europe and Offshore Sportsbooks

There are a number of other extremely niche Futures Book markets at some European and Offshore sportsbooks that offer not only some interesting and entertaining betting propositions, but also some potential value if you pick the right side or player and have the right angle heading in. Two such markets where a handicapper can weigh the Aug. 14-Dec. 25 fixtures for the club he or she is looking at betting on is the Top [Of Table] At Christmas and Bottom At Christmas. Some of the other Futures Book markets out there are: Top 2 Finish, Top 3 Finish, Top 4 Finish, Top 5 Finish, Top 6 Finish, Top 10 Finish, To Finish In Bottom Half, Dual Forecast, Straight Forecast, Tricast. Highest Scoring Team, Lowest Scoring Team, Combination Tricast, First Manager To Leave Post, First Time Winner, LMA Manager Of The Year, Not To Finish Top 4, Not To Finish Top 6, Premier League Season Handicap, Winner/Top Scorer Double, To Win First 3 Games, Top London Club, Top Midlands Club, Top Northeast Club, Top Northwest Club, Top Promoted Club, Premier League Season handicap and To Win First 3 Games. It seems that Eden Hazard and Chelsea may be a good pick in the Not To Finish Top 4 market (+137, Coral) while Spurs may end up being a great early value pick for Top London Club (+350, Ladbrokes) and that maybe putting some time into handicapping the First Manager To Leave Post and those two aforementioned Christmas Outright markets.


Conclusions and Some Other Outright Market English Premier League Picks

Despite earning promotion up into the Premier League, this could be a long season for Tom Huddlestone and Hull City AFC (1,500/1 to win EPL, Bet365) which earned promotion after advancing through the Championship Playoffs after a 4th-place finish (24-11-11, 69 GF-35 GA) in the league. The top two finishers in the Championship—1st-place Burnley (26-15-5) and 2nd-place Middlesbrough (26-11-9)—seem more well-equipped to deal with the rigors of a 38-match schedule than do the Tigers which means facing big dogs like City, United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs and Liverpool all twice, but also means playing the bottom half teams fighting for their own EPL lives like Sunderland (1,500/1 to win EPL, Betfred), West Bromwich Albion (1,500/1 to win EPL, Betfred), Bournemouth (1,500/1 to win EPL, Betfred) and Watford (1,500/1 to win EPL, Betfred) twice also.

And maybe the team to beat in the Premiership this campaign will be Manchester United (1,500/1 to win EPL, Bet365) with new new Manager José Mourinho, Swedish centerpiece Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Paris Saint-Germain; Total EPL Goals 14½ Under -125, Bovada), Wayne Rooney (50/1 to be EPL Top Goalscorer, Bwin), Henrikh Mkhitaryan (Borussia Dortmund; 180/1 to be top EPL Goalscorer, Betfair Exchange) and now Midfielder Paul Pogba (Juventus) to go along with Red Devils like Anthony Martial (50/1 to be EPL Top Goalscorer, Bwin), Juan Mata and the perpetually underrated Antonio Valencia, this looks like the club to beat this season. The depth of the United Roster is now incredible and now with the 23-year-old Pogba at Old Trafford after signing a record £89m transfer from the Old Lady Monday, expect odds of the Red Devils to win the EPL to shorten before Sunday.

And a nice approach in the Top Goalscorer Futures Book market is to have a semi-healthy amount on both United’s Ibrahimovic and Harry Kane (49 lifetime goals for Tottenham) from Tottenham Hotspur (10/1 to win EPL, Bet365) who should be in the race all year long with French GK Hugo Lloris and the electric Dele Alli (150/1 to be Top Goalscorer, William Hill), a 20-year-old Midfielder who can not only feed Kane but score some goals himself. By taking both the big (6-5, 215) Ibrahimovic and Kane, the bettor has—barring Injury of course—two of the most consistent scorers out front in the Premier League. And expecting some regression from Leicester City’s Vardy, some madness and Red Cards from Chelsea’s Costa and some aging to Manchester City’s Agüero and eliminating from the quotient in this market will hopefully seem to provide an edge of the duration of the coming August-May season.


EPL FUTURES BOOK SHORT-SHOT TO WIN PICK: Manchester United +360 (Bwin)

EPL FUTURES BOOK LONGSHOT TO WIN PICK: Tottenham Hotspur 10/1 (William Hill)


EPL FUTURES BOOK RELEGATION TREBLE PICK: Hull City/Sunderland/West Bromwich Albion 40/1 (Stan James)

EPL FUTURES BOOK TOP GOALSCORER PICKS: Harry Kane, Tottenham Hotspur 7/1, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Manchester United 9/1 (Bet365)