Cale Makar Stays Top of Conn Smythe Power Rankings

The puck will drop for the Stanley Cup Final on Wednesday, and the Colorado Avalanche will try to prevent the Tampa Bay Lightning from winning a third consecutive championship.

While the Avalanche have stormed to the final as expected, third-year defenseman Cale Makar has established himself as the favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as the Most Valuable Player in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

It is not as though Makar has an insurmountable edge because teammate Nathan MacKinnon is not far behind. Plus the Tampa Bay Lightning offer a couple of strong contenders in right winger Nikita Kucherov and goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy.

The competition is close enough that performance in the final series will go a long way towards determining which player takes the award.

Here are the latest Conn Smythe odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook.

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Here is a look at the top contenders for Playoff MVP (stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick):

Cale Makar

With 22 points in 14 games, Makar is scoring at a per-game level that has only been previously achieved by Paul Coffey and Bobby Orr among defensemen.

That is great company but it only tells part of the story. The Avalanche have been dominating play with Makar on the ice, controlling 60.8% of shot attempts and 62.8% of goals during 5v5 play.

Nathan MacKinnon

With 11 goals in 14 games, MacKinnon has a good chance to lead the postseason goal-scoring race as he is just two behind Evander Kane. MacKinnon is generating 5.86 shots on goal per game, an outrageous rate.

Among players to have played at least 14 playoff games, Phil Esposito (6.73 in 1971-1972), Alex Ovechkin (6.43 in 2008-2009), and Bobby Orr (6.00 in 1973-1974) are the only three players to have exceeded MacKinnon’s shots per game rate.

Andrei Vasilevskiy

Tampa Bay’s netminder has been excellent in the playoffs, posting a .928 save percentage in 17 games, but his odds are likely enhanced by the projected outcome of the Final series.

The Avalanche are favored to win so Tampa Bay’s most likely path to an upset could be having last year’s Conn Smythe winner steal a couple of games. If that happens, that could tilt the voting in Vasilevskiy’s direction once again.

Nikita Kucherov

The wonderfully talented Lightning winger has produced 23 points in 17 playoff games and a big Stanley Cup Final series could move Kucherov into Conn Smythe territory, especially after he did not win despite running away with the scoring race in last year’s Stanley Cup run.

Victor Hedman

While Hedman will be vitally important for the Lightning in the Stanley Cup Final, he has not dominated play so far in the postseason, certainly not to the degree that he did in 2020, when he did win the Conn Smythe.

At the same time, the Lightning are controlling 57.6% of the expected goals (xG) during 5v5 play when Hedman is on the ice. If they could control play like that against a dominant Colorado Avalanche team, maybe Hedman could make a late charge for the award.

Steven Stamkos

After scoring a pair of goals in the 2-1 victory that clinched the Eastern Conference Final against the New York Rangers, the Lightning captain does have nine goals and 15 points in 17 playoff games. He would need a monster final series, and probably have to lead the postseason in goal-scoring if he is going to have a legitimate shot.

Mikko Rantanen & Gabriel Landeskog

This pair of Avalanche wingers have been productive, both putting up 17 points in 14 playoff games, and Rantanen has filled in at center with Nazem Kadri injured. But it is still difficult to see the path for an Avalanche skater other than Makar or MacKinnon to win the Conn Smythe.

Maybe an injury to one of those stars would open the door but, as it is, Rantanen and Landeskog appear to be an excellent supporting cast.

Darcy Kuemper

After missing most of the Western Conference Final, Colorado’s No. 1 goaltender is expected to be healthy for the Stanley Cup Final.

While Kuemper has had some good moments in the playoffs, he has not been a driving force for Colorado’s results and it would be difficult to fathom that changing enough in the series against Tampa Bay that it results in Kuemper earning the Conn Smythe.

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