As I scanthe NFL betting odds I notice that virtually all the offshore books are dealing a totalranging from 47 to 48. I am trying tothink of a scenario that will talk me off betting the Under and perhapsconvince me that the Over would be a mighty fine value bet in this Super Bowlsoiree. Of course you can concoct ascenario where Peyton Manning plays unconscious and his receivers shake off theSeattle secondary like a dog shakes his fur after a quick dunk in thepool. I guess that could happen and thishighly trumpeted Seattle defense bows under the mighty arm of Peyton theGreat. Yeah, it’s possible – but notprobable.
So if we’renot going to allow that premise to take hold then what are we left with? How about something along the lines of theNFC Championship Game? San Francisco, ateam known for a bruising defense and a serviceable offense (re: Seattle’stwin) was able to score 17 points but more importantly surrendered 23 to anoffense that is supposedly pedestrian at best. That’s 40 freakin’ points right there and the Niners ain’t no Denver onoffense while the Broncos ain’t no San Fran on defense. I realize the Broncos defensive unit gave thePatriots fits in the AFC Championship but let’s face it, Tom Terrific hardlylived up to his moniker and the Broncos didn’t have to do much of anythingexcept try not shoot themselves in the foot.
The Broncos defensehas to worry about two things; Marhsawn Lynch and Russell Wilson. Not so much Wilson’s arm as he’s passed forover 300 yards only twice this season. That’s kind of hard to believe, right? Well believe, like Shakira’s hips, the stats don’t lie. However, if you torture the numbers longenough they will confess to almost anything. Russell Wilson has a very capable arm but his speed allows him to rollout and make things happen on the ground. Outside of Percy Harvin, who has been injured virtually the entireseason, Wilson doesn’t have a bevy of high-grade receivers. And that brings us to the Denver defense.
The Broncosmay not strike fear into the hearts of opposing offenses but let’s not overlookthe fact that Denver is very good at stopping the run. They were ranked 8th in the NFL inthat category this season and stonewalled the talented triumvirate in NewEngland consisting of Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen. Not exactly chopped liver but granted they’renot Marshawn Lynch either. If you’relooking for a betting angle on this total just ask yourself if you see eitherteam blowing up the scoreboard? Can yousee Denver marching up and down a cold and blustery field on one of the bestdefenses ever assembled? Or can you seea team that relies almost exclusively on the turbo-charged legs of one man tocarry the rock and move the chains, scoring at will against a defense that ismore than adept at stopping the run?
While I ampresently leaning towards the Broncos as the small neutral site chalk in NFLodds, I am still not thoroughly convinced they are indeed the right side. However, what I am growing increasinglyconfident about is a total that seems a bit too high. If you’re looking for a betting angle or edgein the big game you could do worse than taking the plunge on Under 47 ½ atBet365.com.