NFC South Clash “Under the Dome”
The Falcons (6-1) and Buccaneers (2-4) will square off on Sunday in a divisional matchup. The opening kickoff at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta is slated for 1:00 PM ET. Current NFL betting odds indicate that Atlanta is a 7.0 to 7.5 point favorite, and the total ranges from 48.0 to 49.0. Atlanta won both games between these teams last season, 56-14 at home, and 27-17 in Tampa.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a gut wrenching 31-30 loss at Washington this past Sunday. They held a 24-0 first half lead, and then were outscored 31-6 during the final three quarters. Washington scored the go ahead touchdown with just 0:24 to play. It will be interesting how a young team like Tampa Bay responds a week later after such an excruciating defeat. The Buccaneers have gone over the total in each of their previous three games, and there was a combined average of 63.3 points scored per contest.
Falcons in ATS Funk
Atlanta began the season by going 4-0 SU&ATS in their first four games. The Falcons are 2-1 in their previous three contests, but they’ve gone 0-3 ATS during that stretch. They’re coming off an uninspiring 10-7 road win this past Sunday over a 1-6 Tennessee team. The Titans were forced to go with backup quarterback Zach Mettenberg due to Marcus Mariota being sidelined by a knee injury. Part of the issue in the past three games can be attributed to a -4 turnover differential. During their 4-0 ATS start, Atlanta committed just 2 turnovers. In this recent 0-3 ATS funk, they gave the ball away 8 times.
Compelling Recent Trends
The Atlanta Falcons have gone 3-7 ATS in their last ten games as a home favorite. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last five as an away underdog of 10.0 or less following a loss in their previous game. Tampa also won 3 of those five contests outright.
NFL Betting Angle
Any division road underdog coming off a loss in which they scored 15 points or more, and allowed 18 or more, versus an opponent (Atlanta) that’s failed to cover in each of their previous three games, and that home favorite has a .500 or better winning percentage, resulted in that road underdog going 19-1 ATS (95%) since 1988. The road underdog was also 13-6-1 straight up in those contests. I’m siding with the road underdog for one of my NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Play on Tampa Bay +7.5 (-115) at at The Greek