5 Bold Predictions for the MLB Stretch Run: Aaron Judge Chases History

Heading into the stretch run for the Major League Baseball season, there are some teams running away with their divisions while some divisions are going to be closely contested. The same goes for individual awards — where there are naturally favorites in place — but some might be more secure than others.

In any case, with an eye toward the stretch run, here are five bold predictions for the rest of the major league regular season.

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Statistical Standout – Aaron Judge Will Surpass 61 Home Runs

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is the current favorite to win American League MVP, not least of all because he leads MLB with 37 home runs. Judge had just one home run through 13 games to start the season, which means that he has crushed 36 home runs in 81 games since.

Why does 61 home runs matter? That was the total achieved by another Yankee Roger Maris back in 1961 and it remained the single-season home run record until Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa both surpassed that number in 1998 and 1999. In 2001, Sosa and Barry Bonds both surpassed 61 home runs but there are, at the very least, strong PED suspicions surrounding McGwire, Sosa, and Bonds.

If Judge manages to surpass 61 home runs, there is an argument to be made that he would be the “clean” record holder, as unofficial as that title might be.

Surprise Division Winner – Cleveland Guardians

Expectations were modest for the Guardians this season, but their 48-46 record has them within three games of the Minnesota Twins in the American League Central Division. Cleveland's lineup is solid enough, the rotation is strong, and close Emmanuel Clase has been excellent.

The Guardians are not going to storm into the playoffs easily. But given their roster, it does not make sense that they are so clearly behind the Twins and Chicago White Sox to win the division, with the Guardians priced at +400 on DraftKings and Caesars, as well as +360 on FanDuel.

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Possible Collapse – Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers hold a 2.5-game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. While that lead is hardly insurmountable, Milwaukee remains a heavy favorite to win the division. The Brewers are priced at -265 on DraftKings, -250 on Caesars, and -210 on FanDuel.

The Brewers have a run differential of plus-32, but that’s not impressive relative to the second-place Cardinals, who have a run differential of plus-61. That's an encouraging enough statistical dominance to like the Cardinals’ chances to overtake the Brewers.

Surprise NL MVP – Freddie Freeman

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is a heavy favorite to win the Most Valuable Player Award in the National League. While his production certainly warrants his favorite status, there is still enough time for another contender to make a charge towards the NL MVP Award.

For one thing, Goldschmidt has a Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) of .385, which would be the highest of his career, so regression is likely coming for his career-high .335 batting average. Even so, Goldschmidt is priced at -140 on DraftKings and Caesars, and -155 on FanDuel.

If a challenger is going to overtake Goldschmidt, maybe consider Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, who had four home runs in 58 games to start the season, but he is surging, with 11 home runs and a slash line of .383/.454/.709 in the past 36 games. Freeman has climbed to have the second shortest odds in the field for National League MVP, priced at +650 on DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars.

Sell, Sell, Sell – Nationals, Reds, and A’s Continue Fire Sales

There is a stark difference between the haves and have-nots in Major League Baseball, but there are some teams that were not seriously trying to win in 2022 and they have the potential to be big sellers leading up to the trade deadline.

The Washington Nationals are already dealing with the possibility of trading 23-year-old superstar Juan Soto, but they also have first baseman Josh Bell, center fielder Victor Robles, reliever Steve Cishek and perhaps even designated hitter Nelson Cruz among their available players.

Teams that need starting pitching can track down the Reds and make an offer for Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle, but the Reds can offer lineup help in the form of outfielders Tyler Naquin and Tommy Pham, infielder Donovan Solano, or utilityman Brandon Drury.

Oakland is another team that has some quality talent that is likely to be available. Starting pitcher Frankie Montas will be highly coveted and center fielder Ramon Laureano could have some value to a contending team, too. Reliever Lou Trivino and maybe even starting pitcher Paul Blackburn would also be among the many A’s players available before the deadline.

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