They played last year in San Jose with verdaso not covering and winning in 3. Some movement on the dog here which I think is a good shot and the spread which is about even money which also might be the value play since we Fernando beat him by 1 game in 2010 and the current spread is 4..
A little side note is that Istomin wins 57% of his tiebreakers compared to 49% for Verdasco.
Can't say I'd be along with this. Istomin is too inconsistent for my tastes. He could play it real tight or he could get beat down. Handicap would be the only way I would fly.