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Dolgopolov vs. Mello +200
Mello played quite well so far. Dolgopolov is a talented guy, however some of his interests often prevails. He's always worth a shot as a underdog, but not at such high juice at a less important tournament. Played it at +200, Pinnacle still has it at +188.
are you implying his alleged match fixing there?Originally Posted by Allure
That's pretty much it, yes.
Gonna watch the line on this one. Talent-wise, Mello isn't in Dolgo's league. Mello is a bit deceiving because he's not really a clay court guy. He sprouts some good results now & again when he gets good match-ups, but if you look at this results, he's actually been better on the hard stuff. His draw and results in this tournament are very hard to gauge IMO. He got Giraldo on the back-end of Giraldo's long run last week and meltdown. Then he got Montanes who had not played in weeks and was in his first match on clay and then I don't even know what to say about Andujar today, he was terrible. It will be interesting to see Mello when he is challenged, if he is challenged. Looking at Mello's losses on clay in the last year, the losses are to some below average customers outside of Ferrero last year at this tournament and Cilic at the French Open. I'd lean Dolgopolov at this moment. Weirdly enough, when his price is higher like this, I think he's a better play. It's when he's in the muddy middle of -150 or so when the line movement seems to start fukking with everything.
Don't disagree with your point of view. If Dolgopolov is interested to take the win over Mello, then he most likely will do so. But having watched a lot of games of Dolgopolov I always have in mind that Dolgopolov sometimes tends to do weird things out there. Call it fixing or whatever. I got Mello at +200 and I think there might be certain opportunities of trading. I can see Dolgopolov losing the first set, just to win the other sets with ease. I might be totally wrong, but I'll give it a try.
Well good luck Allure. Dolgopolov is a guy I generally avoid in betting until there comes to be a clear cut pattern to how he behaves. Last year showed obviously some sketchy issues with the lines and outside of the Aussie Open this year, we haven't gotten to see a large body of work from him to see how the lines and his outcomes behave. His matches more so than some others I think it pays to watch the line until the day of the match. Even if you lose out on the price, you could potentially save yourself a headache or you might get one just trying to do what I am doing ... figuring out what the F is going on with him period.
Obviously Dolgopolov wanted to win. On to the next one.
Dolgo will take the title today
Dolgo is a beast.
As for fixing: the nice thing about him, Chela and the rest is that it's obvious in the markets when they're going to do it.
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