1. 04-17-11 12:45 AM #71
    CanuckG
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  2. 04-17-11 01:13 AM #72
    yoshiments
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    Shari, I'm one step ahead of you

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/tennis-han...n-futures.html
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  3. 04-17-11 02:17 AM #73
    noober
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    Very tough to hedge with Nadal still in the draw
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  4. 04-17-11 04:53 AM #74
    Diamondgeezer
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    Shari it would be a nice little bet if a) Melzer really was down to 50/1 and b) the tournament was starting tomorrow.

    Point a) is incorrect as he is trading at around 110 at Betdaq and you can still back at 151 at Extrabet.

    Point b) the tournament is still weeks away and anything could happen. The guy could lose all his matches between now and then and start at 400/1. And as JJGold said you don't know the draw. If he gets Nadal or Fed first round then he is going to go out to about 500.

    Thanks for starting the thread but this is not smart betting. The only way you could ever work a play like this is on an unexposed player or perhaps a player who has been injured for a long time but has regained form. Also you can't back say Melzer and then back his opponent becasue Melzer could win but play badly or pick up a knock and suddenly you find despite the win he is back out to 300. And if you start hedging on the exchange outright market then you will need a large amount of money.

    If you really thought Melzer could win or go very deep and he was unexposed I could see the sense in it but otherwise it is a poor play IMO. I wouldn't even be backing this guy if you could still get 251 for all the reasons above.

    Wow I can see King Rog at 16 on Betdaq! Hmm that has to be tempting. Del Potro looks interesting at around 24. As they like to say - 'he's got game'. The Djoker looks interesting too.

    Has anyone around here got a pair of cast iron balls and is prepared to take on Nadal? At 1.5 he is well short considering you have the Fed, Del Potro, the Djoker and even Murray on your side.

    Mr Gold (or anyone else) are you man enough to lay Nadal for the FR Open after today's match if he wins???
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  5. 04-17-11 05:16 AM #75
    shari91
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    Diamond thanks for your input. I'm really not going to explain myself again as I've said multiple times I started this thread to see what futures other people are betting and that I bet this for fun. Melzer will be a seeded player barring a complete breakdown on his part by then - and if that happens, he won't be playing because that will be due to an injury. As a seeded player in a Slam, he won't meet a fellow seeded player until the 3rd round. That's how draws in Slams work. Therefore: No Fed, no Nadal, no Ferrer, no Djoko, no Soderling, etc... in the first 2 rounds.

    Oh - and here's Melzer at the same book I got my prop at. He is indeed down to $51. As there's no hope that I'm funding books other than the ones I have right now, solely for a fun prop, I'm happy with the $200 price drop here.

    http://www.sportingbet.com.au/#&&s=S...ampion-1895828

    All the best with your bets.
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  6. 04-17-11 06:23 AM #76
    Jaug
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    Nadal takes this.
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  7. 04-17-11 06:28 AM #77
    shari91
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    Quote Originally Posted by yoshiments View Post
    Shari, I'm one step ahead of you http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/tennis-han...n-futures.html
    Wow! Can't believe this book gave me 2x the price on him more than 2 months later. These Aussie books are a bit dim at times to say the least.

    Not sure how I missed your thread earlier but I'll combine the two of them now.
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  8. 04-17-11 07:00 AM #78
    Diamondgeezer
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    That's cool and I didn't know he was seeded. But who is in what quarter will have a huge impact on the price though. I understand you are saying Melzer is value and you got a great price etc, it's just personally I don't see it that way. There are a ton of dangerous unseeded players that could push his price way out if he draws one.

    Melzer may be 250 but $50 is a big punt on such a huge dog unless you can lay off. Don't know what you see in this jack of all trades journeyman. What if he gets Lleyton Hewitt first round? Surely you won't be willing Lleyton to lose!
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  9. 04-17-11 07:14 AM #79
    Diamondgeezer
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    Almagro - Melzer smelzer - when are we going to hear about a proper bet???
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  10. 04-17-11 08:00 AM #80
    labrador
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    I think it's a fine bet. The chance of greening out and making some decent profit is much higher than not being able to hedge.
    Me myself, also made some French Open future bet on Melzer (at a quite nice price) at the moment when I saw he was about to beat Almagro. I knew he was back for the clay court season.
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  11. 04-17-11 08:36 AM #81
    gators0708
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    Monfils will win...
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  12. 04-17-11 05:20 PM #82
    Diamondgeezer
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    For all you Melzer fans he is available at 350 on BetFair at the mo. Monfils also 350.

    King Rog is 17.5!
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  13. 04-20-11 01:15 PM #83
    Inkwell77
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    I like Monfils at 60-1. The Barcelona tournament this week should show some thangs
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