[koscheckbaby]

-140 is a gift line for Djokovic. Murray has NOT looked that great this tournament. He also showed signs of mentally falling apart against the gift opponent of David Ferrer(How that 4th set got a tiebreak is a real bad sign. Murray was a point away from 3-0). Remember, he's never won a Grand Slam and he's shown his frustration and ability to wilt because of it. Just on that alone, -140 isn't bad. Never underestimate the mental side of sports. But factor in how Novak just straight setted Federer, has won this GS before, and looks in amazing form, take this to the bank.

[Scottish]

Exactly never undestimate the mental side, these 2 have been friends since they were 10, practiced together 6-7 times in the past 3 weeks and Murray has won the last 3 meetings.

The person who has beaten Federer in GS over the past 18 months has had a big letdown in the final and lost.

[EaglesPhan36]

This line is set perfectly to suck people in on Djokovic due to your exact thinking. Novak is 1-2 in Slam finals. Murray is 0-2. What is the difference? Novak got the good fortune to face Tsonga the year he won the Aussie Open in 2008. I don't think the head-2-head yields much extra info as they are all fairly dated at this point. Also ya better factor in that although the match will be at night, the high on Sunday in Melbourne is forecast to be 95. So when the match begins, it's still going to be quite hot and we know Novak's history there ... although his conditioning is improved - it might be more mental than physical if he gets down and starts thinking about the heat and having to rally.

I'll be waiting for people to pound Djokovic and take Murray at the best price possible I think. People are going to look at the Ferrer match and how he struggled some there ... entirely different opponent and strategy, so just because Djokovic rolled Federer doesn't mean he'll do the same to Murray.

[kingsr]

The weather will not be that hot by the time the match starts, can almost guarantee that. The match starts at Approx 8pm AEST, it will be closer to 75 degrees. Don't look to much for the weather to help you with Dokodik fatigue, that strategy may be deadly. A winner here is hard to pick imo, I'm taking over in sets and games and maybe a small play on Murray if Dokodik gets pounded by the squares.

[EaglesPhan36]

Weather.com has it forecast to be somewhere around 82-85 at match time but as they've been saying during the week, the air does not circulate well inside the stadium so it's always hotter on-court than the air temp. I'm not really counting on heat to factor in much, but it wouldn't hurt if you're looking to back Murray. I think he's still the fitter of the two.

[erkanua]

The price for Djokovic is definitely amazing for me. I don't care if Djokovic lose this one -even I think he has a very great advantage to get this trophy- because I'll know I will be on the right side; better mental reliability, stronger forehands, slight average for service games, more focused on the title (Murray said he just hopes it will be better than last year, after Ferrer match), may be worse defence but I think Djoker will ends the Murray's three games winning streak against him. In addition, he will be rested 1 more days than Murray.

[kingsr]

Just a heads up though, here in Australia weather prediction is terrible! They can't get it right even if its a forecast for 8 hours later. So its almost impossible for them to predict days in advance. Our climate is shite! We get rain, hail and even snow in the middle of summer. Temp/humidity can drop or rise rapidly. You'll have a better indication of temperature closer to match time.

[kingsr]

The price for Djokovic is definitely amazing for me. I don't care if Djokovic lose this one -even I think he has a very great advantage to get this trophy- because I'll know I will be on the right side; better mental reliability, stronger forehands, slight average for service games, more focused on the title (Murray said he just hopes it will be better than last year, after Ferrer match), may be worse defence but I think Djoker will ends the Murray's three games winning streak against him. In addition, he will be rested 1 more days than Murray.

oh my

[EaglesPhan36]

Don't measure too much on the extra day of rest. The last three Aussie Opens, the men's champion has come from the semifinalist with less rest.

[erkanua]

oh my

What's wrong?

Don't measure too much on the extra day of rest. The last three Aussie Opens, the men's champion has come from the semifinalist with less rest.

Of course it is not my main purpose for this final but at least I know who would be more tired.

[kingsr]

You mentioned Dokovic and mental reliability in the same sentence. How long have you been watching tennis? 2 weeks?

I must admit though Dokodik does seem more mentally stable recently except for a minor lapse against Berdych in the 2nd set. Those mental snaps scare me from betting on the dokodik. GL though, he has looked amazing this torney, should be a good match.

[erkanua]

You can be sure that I've been watching tennis for a long time I don't interest if Djokovic has a strong mentality or not because I've never seen anyone like Murray who has a worst mental quality in Top 10. He is just yelling after all of the points that he lost wheter it is about his fault or not. In my opinion, it is about his disrespect to his opponent because he thinks every points are relevant to him, his opponent cannot play perfect enough to beat him. I don't like to see Murray being that much unhappy on court, especially if I have money on him.

[swiss88]

The price for Djokovic is definitely amazing for me. I don't care if Djokovic lose this one -even I think he has a very great advantage to get this trophy- because I'll know I will be on the right side; better mental reliability, stronger forehands, slight average for service games, more focused on the title (Murray said he just hopes it will be better than last year, after Ferrer match), may be worse defence but I think Djoker will ends the Murray's three games winning streak against him. In addition, he will be rested 1 more days than Murray.

I think the price is fair for the final, and I definitely be on the Djoker as well.
Sure, he had some mental issues in the past but I think he has improved a lot in this area.. Moreover, you can't say Murray has the edge in the mental thing, remember games where he struggled like the one against Wawrinka at the US Open for example.. Plus Djokovic already won a Grand Slam here 3 years ago, Murray hasn't won one yet.
This Djokovic guy continues to impress me, he's become a really solid player over the last months and especially in the big events (US Open and Davis Cup for the most recent examples). He beat Federer twice in a row in Grand Slams semi-finals, feats that the old Djokovic wasn't capable of doing.
Murray is a very good player I know, but I don't think he has everything it takes to win a Grand Slam yet, so it's a simple decision for me I'll go with the better player, Djokovic.

[courtemanche08]

put 200 on djok to win the tourney before it started, really wanna see him win me 2154, I'm feeling damn confident in this, djok in straights over murray

[benrama]

I watched the Murray game last night at Fed Square, and was the one cheering Ferrer, just to rile up the Englishmen around me Murray got his game going towards the end of the match and looked VERY strong, I'd be reluctant to bet against him on any large play. His first serve was terrible against Ferrer in the first set and most of the second, but as soon as he got it going in the third (71% of first serves in) he looked unbeatable.

I actually think this is the key to the whole match - the Murray server. If he can get a high % of first serves in he will win a lot of cheap points as a result - this will also afford him the luxory of being more aggressive on his own serve and being able to sustain pressure on Djokovic.

From what I've seen this match is more of a coin flip than what oddsmakers have made it. Remember that Murray really destroyed Federer in the Shanghai masters late last year - so beating Fed is an over-rated barometer for this match. Oddsmakers however know that money will flow on Djokovic and have juiced that appropriately - they set the line perfectly for 50/50 action.

I'll be betting this match live like I usually do when it's this close, but my favourite bet right now is the under. I think both Djokovic and Murray are not mental fighters and are capable of losing to each other in three straight sets if things don't go their way. I also see 6-2 sets being a distinct possibility so the match could go four sets and still go under.

[ATP123]

site im looking at is djokovic -180

[Poster X]

Pretty good matchup. Murray has decent shot to win, Djokovic can make leap to multi-titlist. Fair odds imo.

[koscheckbaby]

Fade Murray in a grandslam final until proven otherwise. The odds are very fair for Djokovic.

Novak got the good fortune to face Tsonga the year he won the Aussie Open in 2008.

Not good fortune at all. He straight-setted Federer to get there and Tsonga has historically given Novak A TON of problems. Djokovic has done better against Federer than he has against Tsonga in his career. He earned that title.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

He beat Federer because he was unwell. Was hopeless that tournament, and had absolutely nothing against Djoko.

[EaglesPhan36]

Fade Murray in a grandslam final until proven otherwise. The odds are very fair for Djokovic. Not good fortune at all. He straight-setted Federer to get there and Tsonga has historically given Novak A TON of problems. Djokovic has done better against Federer than he has against Tsonga in his career. He earned that title.

That 2008 was their first meeting. Tsonga has since proven to be a thorn in his side, but that was Tsonga's first time to ever have done anything at Slam. Djokovic had a string of three straight Slams leading up to that where he had made the Semis and experienced a Final loss to Fed at the 2007 US Open. He had a huge experience advantage over Tsonga. Anyone who wins a title earns it. I'm just saying there is a big difference between getting to play someone like Tsonga in their first ever Slam final vs. playing someone like Federer.

[Pew Pew]

Maybe the lines are like this to discourage people from hedging Novak's pre-tourny pick. Hmmmm

[koscheckbaby]

I'm no tennis expert, but this result seemed to be predictable as hell. Novak should have been in the -200s. Murray going to that 4th set tiebreaker with Ferrer clinched my thought that he would have nothing once again in an AO final.

[JOHON8]

I'm no tennis expert, but this result seemed to be predictable as hell. Novak should have been in the -200s. Murray going to that 4th set tiebreaker with Ferrer clinched my thought that he would have nothing once again in an AO final.

I'm not surprised either, I opened a thread expecting another blow out. But you know how the books like to play mind games with the public.