First look these are my takes..Not necessarily betting these just wondering what everyone thinks..
ATP
Falla ..Odds dropping. Lopez hasnt done crap early and Falla is pretty decent on fast surfaces..
Nieminen +415..Why you ask? Only Because nobody is betting him and everyone is only David due to the fact he just beat Dave. Pure contrarian pick here..
Young +270...Just because Cilic is a complete mind Fukk right now. He could go to the semis or lose this..
Sela +240...How is delpo's fitness...?
Zelmlija +475..Baggy pulled out of his last tourney with injury..
Matosevic..+230...EP might hate me for this..but does Bernakis deserve to be this high of a fav? and against a home boy at that?
WTA.
Date Krumm..+105...This old lady can ball!!
Kudryavtseva +200..What has the Janko done lately?
Tsurenko..+200. she blew through the Qualies and schynder is old...
Peers +900...Pure contrarian again....just because she is the hot pick on everyones brackets..and is playing an aussie and peers has a scalp already this year earlier..
Lopez shows up lame every once in awhile, but it's hard to pick Falla when you see he lost to Uber-stiff Guccione in Sydney qualis and his only two wins this season have come against the same player on a surface that his opponent is very poor on. It'll probably be a bit of a fight, but I like Lopez there. I'm not really big on most of the dogs you have listed outside of "The Donald." Cilic lost to Nishikori in his only match this season, who albeit I think is faster than Donald Young - plays a similar style ... could be perfectly suited to an upset possibility. No way I think you could make a case to lay the price on Cilic at this point. I've got some other dogs I am looking over ...
On Berankis, I think the price is based on him having won a couple matches at both of the last two Slams vs. Matosevic who I think has only played the one main draw Slam match at last year's Aussie Open when he lost to Chiudinelli. Look at the scoreline for that, it was tight for a bit and then he kind of fell apart in the 4th. I think that's the difference until he proves otherwise is that Berankis has more experience already in the best of five setting and I think is more consistent over the course of a match. Looking at Berankis maybe in parlays - would not lay -270 or so by itself of course. Good luck today!
I like the price on niemenen. Think there is value in that line (or w/e EP is calling it). I would have to get closer to 350 for me to take sela, though I do think delpotro is still on the mend. If you play it make sure you choose a book w/ one set action.
As far as lopez goes I think he is a steal at less than- 200. Experience at this level, fallas poor performance recently (tho lopez failed to produce too).
I like your takes on Young/Cilic and Kudryavtseva/Jankovic. Young has the skills to hang with Cilic, but Cilic is such a question mark. I think Cilic will show well in the Aussie, as you said, he could lose first round.
nieminen posted on his blog "During those rainy days no one could practice a lot here, only a couple of hours indoors. It was ok for me because my original plan was to take a few days easier before trying to start to practice full. Because of the good treatment and exercises my knee feels much better. I'm very happy and surprised how big improvement has happened in a few days, it felt so bad last Monday. Even though it's much better now, I'll play matches with painkillers, only for the second time ever."
+400 doesnt seem that good taking that into account imo.
Just two very long shots that I thought were worth some discussion. Doubt I would have the balls to play them, but my take.
Millot +950: Melzer made the big surge last year close to the top ten somewhat reminiscent of the push Gilles Simon made the year before. This isn't his best surface although he is adequate on it. Still, Millot is a little lefty who will use his speed to try and put the ball back in play a lot. Millot won't be short on confidence as he won a hard court Challenger to start the year and ran through qualis fairly simply. This is his first Slam, so nerves will be his biggest opponent early. If he can settle in early and stay competitive, stranger things have happened.
Flipkens +420: Pavlyuchenkova is a very talented young Russian she's facing, but she retired with a hip flexor problem I believe in Brisbane about a week ago or less. Don't really fancy much about Flipkens game and she pushed hard to recover from wrist surgery last October, but has reported feeling fit and lighter than last year. The Russian would crush her at full strength, but if that hip flexor is a problem who knows.
ry once in awhile, but it's hard to pick Falla when you see he lost to Uber-stiff Guccione in Sydney qualis and his only two wins this season have come against the same player on a surface that his opponent is very poor on. It'll probably be a bit of a fight, but I like Lopez there. I'm not really big on most of the dogs you have listed outside of "The Donald." Cilic lost to Nishikori in his only match this season, who albeit I think is faster than Donald You
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Monday underdog discussion..
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