This looks like a great over bet. A lot of the top seeds have been dropping like flies. Arod is a massive fave here, but her rarely wins in a crisp romp unless he's playing truly inferior competition. Today he was down 4-1*, 0-40 before coming back to win in the TB.
If Almagro wins, this is a cakewalk over. More likely, Arod wins in a tight match w/ one TB and the other set being 6-3 at worst.
7-5, 6-3 ... 21 .... likely minimum output
7-6, 6-3 ... 22
7-6, 6-4 ... 23