1. #36
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,379
    Betpoints: 3571

    16 - 14 - 3, (+8.585u)

    ATP Acapulco 500 Mens Singles, QF
    Lorenzo Musetti vs Grigor Dimitrov
    Moneyline: Lorenzo Musetti, 3.84 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    I've been thinking about this one for the past 24 hours, and the odds drifting a fair bit into my favour makes this worth a play for mine. Likewise with a lot of other up and comers there isn't much data on him and even though he struggled a bit in qualifiers he has beaten some good opposition to make it to this stage. He's got a good mix of skillsets but he's a bit different to guys like Berreteni and Sinner as he doesn't just play from the baseline. He looks to be confident in this tournament and as he has shown since transitioning from a very successful juniors career to the Pros he is just as motivated to win.
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: MOBIL19

  2. #37
    Conqueror
    Conqueror's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-08-13
    Posts: 11,549

    Congrats on Musetti!

  3. #38
    degennn
    degennn's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-18
    Posts: 1,205
    Betpoints: 3297

    Nice work

  4. #39
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,379
    Betpoints: 3571

    Quote Originally Posted by Conqueror View Post
    Congrats on Musetti!
    Quote Originally Posted by degennn View Post
    Nice work
    Thanks guys


    17- 14 - 3, (+11.425u)

    ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, SF
    Aslan Karatsev vs Andrey Rublev
    Total Games: Under 22 Games, 1.98 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    An interesting matchup going forward with these countrymen knowing each other pretty well but as he has shown so far, Rublev is a different beast in these event's and hasn't minded playing in the middle east in the past. Karatsev has had a good tournament but he also hasn't beaten a top 10 player since his upset of Diego in Australia. Rublev is arguably the best player left in the draw, and like he has done with his other opponents he will pick apart Karatsev's game and get the Win here.


    ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, SF
    Lloyd George Harris vs Denis Shapovalov
    Set Handicap: Denis Shapovalov -1.5 Sets, 2.06 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    George Harris has had a good run in Dubai and I underestimated him a touch. But Shapovalov also has had a good run knocking off the in form Chardy and being able to break him twice at opportune moments being the superior mover. I think more or less it will be a similar strategy, attack the second serve and get him off balance.

  5. #40
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,379
    Betpoints: 3571

    17- 16 - 3, (+9.425u)

    Disaster

    ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, SF
    Dominik Koepfer vs Alexander Zverev
    Total Games: Under 21 Games, 1.98 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play


    ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, SF
    Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Lorenzo Musetti
    Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas -5, 2.03 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

  6. #41
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,379
    Betpoints: 3571

    18 - 17 - 3, (+9.455u)

    ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, Final
    Aslan Karatsev vs Lloyd George Harris
    Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.877 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 2u play

  7. #42
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,379
    Betpoints: 3571

    18 - 18 - 3, (+7.455u)

    ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, Final
    Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alexander Zverev
    Set Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas -1.5 Sets, 2.59 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 2u play

  8. #43
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,379
    Betpoints: 3571

    18 - 19 - 3, (+5.455u)

    ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
    John Isner vs Roberto Bautista Agut
    Moneyline: John Isner, 2.72 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Think these odds are a fair bit of overs for a guy who has had great success at this tournament (winner in 2018, runner up in 2019) and he's looked hard to break through in tiebreaks. Was really concerned with his lacklustre effort against Tsitsipas in Acapulco but after hanging back and seeing some of his matches here I'm happy to take him to continue his run on a surface that suits his game.


    ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
    Emil Ruusuvuori vs Janik Sinner
    Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.909 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Hard to split these two, with the way they have been going in this tournament but I think both guys move well enough to ask questions of each others game here, possibly splitting sets in the process.


    ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
    Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik
    Moneyline: Alexander Bublik 2.42 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    I have these two players evenly matched, and with the odds skewed in Fritz's favour, i'll go the other side. Bublik has been the better player in 2021 from what I can see and has had some good results. Minus playing at home I think Bublik has the chance to make his QF at Masters 1000 level which in my opinion he deserves and has worked hard for.


    ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
    Sebastian Korda vs Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
    Moneyline: Sebastian Korda, 2.30 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play



  9. #44
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,379
    Betpoints: 3571

    ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
    Andrey Rublev vs Marin Cilic
    Moneyline: Marin Cilic, 8.64 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    There is enough juice on the ML to make this a play for mine with enough value to justify it. Rublev has picked up where he left off in 2021 and winning a few titles along the way. But as we've seen with other players who have played plenty of matches, something has to give. Cilic has played some decent tennis these last few days and has build up some consistent form. He's played well in Miami in the past and on odds even if he falls short I think I can justify the play, rather then miss out.

    Felt the same with Hurkacz to beat Raonic, but annoyed I left it and didn't pull the trigger.

  10. #45
    Conqueror
    Conqueror's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-08-13
    Posts: 11,549

    Nice call on Korda.
    Korda and Karatsev are 2 players we should start paying attention to especially when they're underdogs to a player not named Djokovic.

First 12
Top