[Jeff_Black]

16 - 14 - 3, (+8.585u)

ATP Acapulco 500 Mens Singles, QF
Lorenzo Musetti vs Grigor Dimitrov
Moneyline: Lorenzo Musetti, 3.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I've been thinking about this one for the past 24 hours, and the odds drifting a fair bit into my favour makes this worth a play for mine. Likewise with a lot of other up and comers there isn't much data on him and even though he struggled a bit in qualifiers he has beaten some good opposition to make it to this stage. He's got a good mix of skillsets but he's a bit different to guys like Berreteni and Sinner as he doesn't just play from the baseline. He looks to be confident in this tournament and as he has shown since transitioning from a very successful juniors career to the Pros he is just as motivated to win.

[Conqueror]

Congrats on Musetti!

[degennn]

Nice work

[Jeff_Black]

Congrats on Musetti!

Nice work

Thanks guys


17- 14 - 3, (+11.425u)

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, SF
Aslan Karatsev vs Andrey Rublev
Total Games: Under 22 Games, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

An interesting matchup going forward with these countrymen knowing each other pretty well but as he has shown so far, Rublev is a different beast in these event's and hasn't minded playing in the middle east in the past. Karatsev has had a good tournament but he also hasn't beaten a top 10 player since his upset of Diego in Australia. Rublev is arguably the best player left in the draw, and like he has done with his other opponents he will pick apart Karatsev's game and get the Win here.


ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, SF
Lloyd George Harris vs Denis Shapovalov
Set Handicap: Denis Shapovalov -1.5 Sets, 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

George Harris has had a good run in Dubai and I underestimated him a touch. But Shapovalov also has had a good run knocking off the in form Chardy and being able to break him twice at opportune moments being the superior mover. I think more or less it will be a similar strategy, attack the second serve and get him off balance.

[Jeff_Black]

17- 16 - 3, (+9.425u)

Disaster

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, SF
Dominik Koepfer vs Alexander Zverev
Total Games: Under 21 Games, 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play


ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, SF
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Lorenzo Musetti
Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas -5, 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

18 - 17 - 3, (+9.455u)

ATP Dubai 500, Mens Singles, Final
Aslan Karatsev vs Lloyd George Harris
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

18 - 18 - 3, (+7.455u)

ATP Acapulco 500, Mens Singles, Final
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alexander Zverev
Set Handicap: Stefanos Tsitsipas -1.5 Sets, 2.59 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

[Jeff_Black]

18 - 19 - 3, (+5.455u)

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
John Isner vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Moneyline: John Isner, 2.72 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Think these odds are a fair bit of overs for a guy who has had great success at this tournament (winner in 2018, runner up in 2019) and he's looked hard to break through in tiebreaks. Was really concerned with his lacklustre effort against Tsitsipas in Acapulco but after hanging back and seeing some of his matches here I'm happy to take him to continue his run on a surface that suits his game.


ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
Emil Ruusuvuori vs Janik Sinner
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games, 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Hard to split these two, with the way they have been going in this tournament but I think both guys move well enough to ask questions of each others game here, possibly splitting sets in the process.


ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
Taylor Fritz vs Alexander Bublik
Moneyline: Alexander Bublik 2.42 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I have these two players evenly matched, and with the odds skewed in Fritz's favour, i'll go the other side. Bublik has been the better player in 2021 from what I can see and has had some good results. Minus playing at home I think Bublik has the chance to make his QF at Masters 1000 level which in my opinion he deserves and has worked hard for.


ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
Sebastian Korda vs Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
Moneyline: Sebastian Korda, 2.30 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Miami Masters 1000, Mens Singles, R4
Andrey Rublev vs Marin Cilic
Moneyline: Marin Cilic, 8.64 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

There is enough juice on the ML to make this a play for mine with enough value to justify it. Rublev has picked up where he left off in 2021 and winning a few titles along the way. But as we've seen with other players who have played plenty of matches, something has to give. Cilic has played some decent tennis these last few days and has build up some consistent form. He's played well in Miami in the past and on odds even if he falls short I think I can justify the play, rather then miss out.

Felt the same with Hurkacz to beat Raonic, but annoyed I left it and didn't pull the trigger.

[Conqueror]

Nice call on Korda.
Korda and Karatsev are 2 players we should start paying attention to especially when they're underdogs to a player not named Djokovic.

[Jeff_Black]

Nice call on Korda.
Korda and Karatsev are 2 players we should start paying attention to especially when they're underdogs to a player not named Djokovic.

Thanks. I definitely agree with Korda. I'm not sold on Karatsev yet. I'll avoid him on grass for the time being.
21 - 21 - 3, (+7.804u)

Wimbledon should be a good tournament with some interesting challenges for some players who haven't played there much or before. Putting up some plays I've been thinking over since the draw came out. Using a variety of reasons but with tournaments like these where there is risk and unknown sometimes going with your gut too.

I know I mentioned it before, but still think Korda has the tools to be a future Slam champion. Plays well on clay and hardcourts, won his first title, in the top 50, the only way is up...

[Jeff_Black]

Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Sam Querrey vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Moneyline: Sam Querrey, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Both guys showed some good form in Mallorca but I think Querrey's experience at Wimbledon will show here, and with the odds on offer I think it's worth a play. He's made it to the QF here on multiple occasions as well as a SF and has beaten formidable opponents like Murray and Djokovic in the past. Carreno Busta seems to have never been able to figure out this surface in the past, being 29 years old and still never having made it past the first round of the tournament. He does seem to like playing at the other slams more posting far better results. I'll take Querrey in this instance.
This is on the second day of Round 1 but really love this bet for some reason.

This will be pretty square of me to play these but I feel they're pretty solid.

Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Novak Djokovic vs Jack Draper
Handicap: Novak Djokovic -10, 2.12 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Rarely like to get on the big names this early with the big lines in the slams, especially one that wasn't played last year but against this kind of opposition, Novak should really not have any problems with, even for a left hander, that can sometimes be tricky. In his first round match the last two years against more formidable opposition he lost only 6 and 7 games. Whilst it's easy to overlook these sort of opponents (age, ranking , lack of experience on the big stage etc), he has admitted in a press conference he has done his homework on his opponent, watching his games at Queens, and even asking Janik Sinner about how he felt playing him, so you feel like he is going to be switched on to hit the ground running here. He has a potential second round matchup with Kevin Anderson which could be a potential longer match if Anderson's serve is on like it has been in some of their matches so he would not want to spend too much time out there on the opening day.


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Federico Delbonis vs Andrey Rublev
Handicap: Andre Rublev -8, 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Happy to go with the form Rublev has shown on grass so far, and with a disappointing first round loss at the French Open, I think we will see an improvement from him at Wimbledon. He has a perfect opportunity to do this against a very beatable opponent. Del Bonis, for a 30 year old who has been on the pro tour since 2007 has had five appearances at Wimbledon and had to qualify with no wins, and only one year where he actually took a set against an opponent, the other four were in straight set losses. Federico is your typical baseline player and may be tricky if Rublev struggles with his second service games, however I think Del Bonis will be too rushed for time with Rublevs powerful groundstrokes and not be much of a challenge, with a similar script to most of his Wimbledon matches.

[Jeff_Black]

Now for some less square plays

Unless I'm blind Pinnacle doesn't have all the matches on play for today so I'm gonna head over to bet365 where they have okay odds as well.

Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Diego Schwartzman vs Benoit Paire
Moneyline: Benoit Paire, 5.50 on Bet365
Stake: 1u play

For a guy that has only won 2 games in 2021 you would think his odds are higher. However Paire despite having a mediorce career and not winning a title until his later 20s has overall an over 50% win rate on grass in his area in comparison to his opponent who has a 33% win rate. If there is ever a chance for Paire to come out of no where and surprise everyone, it's probably here. He has made it to the fourth round twice and only lost his first round match here twice in 9 attempts. He has slick hands and his game will suit grass. He can be hard to break if his serve is on. If there is a letdown for Diego it's here.


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Denis Shapovalov vs Philipp Kohlscriebber
Moneyline: Philipp Kohlscriebber, 5.00 on Bet365
Stake: 1u play

I was not surprised at all when I saw Kohlscriebber beat Karatsev at the French. He can play on clay, and equally he can play well on grass even outside of his favourite German tournaments. For a 37 year old (don't let his age fool you) he has an effortless style and he was serving great in Halle. He has nice touches at the net and can volley with the best of them. Shapovalov has had some nice matches since missing out on playing at the French Open but with the odds on offer I'm liking Kohlscriebber's experience as well a year away from the venue.


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Dan Evans vs Feliciano Lopez
Moneyline: Feliciano Lopez, 2.75 on Bet365
Stake: 1u play

This should be a cracker of a game as well. Not sure how many more years or tournaments Lopez has left in him for someone who hasn't missed a slam since 2001 his durability has been something else. But it's also not surprising due to his effortless style of player, with similarities to Federer (but left handed). He is well positioned to win this matchup considering Evans' form on grass and in the slams overall but I think the key will be behind his hard to break serve and volley.

[beefcake]

Very well done Jeff.Love all the picks.Lopez is just about on the way out.Miss his style on grass as your right he seems to play effortlessly on it.

[Jeff_Black]

Cheers man, it's an interesting matchup as they have different styles and strengths. I think Lopez will give it a good go here. Definitely wouldn't back Evans that short that's for sure!

[Jeff_Black]

I forgot to mention this in my initial post for this tournament but it is great to see Wimbledon back, the tour wasn't the same without it last year.

Happy to jag the wins on the big lines, sometimes it's best not to overthink it but I also put plenty of thought into the picks before making them. And I felt the rest of the match after Djokovic played poorly in the first set for his first singles match on grass in two years was reflective of the difference in their ranking. Winning a very high percentage of points on serve and cutting down on UE after the first set made a noticeable difference. It's annoying the Wimbledon app/website doesn't let you break it down between sets but outside of the first set I felt like Djokovic barely lost a point on serve. And likewise with the error count. It was about 10 or so after the first set and went up to 24 at the end of the match for the next three. Anyway it seemed clear with all the missed break point conversions it was going to be a tough day for Draper with some pretty poor serving on that part and giving away too many second serves.
From what I've seen with Rublev it will be an interesting QF if they do meet.

Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Thiago Monteiro
Total Games: Under 31.5 Games, 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Similar to my above plays, I feel like this is a great spot for Felix to start his Wimbledon campaign on a surface that he has shown some good form on in 2021. A Final at Stuttgart as well as a Semi Final in Halle knocking off Roger Federer I think he has served well and will be tough to break. Monteiro is a sub .500 winning player on the Pro Tour and his game is more suited to hard courts and clay where he has had far better results. Despite a close match at the US Open I think Felix has become a much better player since then and expect him to win this matchup accordingly.


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Fernando Verdasco vs Grigor Dimitrov
Moneyline: Fernando Verdasco, 5.10 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I feel like these odds are way too off despite all the factors but despite Verdasco's age, and form, I think he's a dangerous first round opponent for many players and a guy who likes to get into the grind and doesn't mind playing five setters probably isn't the ideal first opponent Dimitrov wants to play. It is concerning he (Dimitrov) has had injury and fitness issues which have impacted his campaigns in Australia and Paris and because of that he hasn't played since retiring from the French Open. Dimitrov's form hasn't exactly been crash hot either and he has surprisingly lost his past first round matches in 2018 and 2019. Give me the Spanish Warrior at those odds on present!


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Hubert Hurkacz vs Lorenzo Musetti
Moneyline: Lorenzo Musetti, 2.78 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Interesting odds. Musetti has not played in the main draw of Wimbledon as a pro but his game is absolutely suitable for grass. I think the odds are a bit of an unknown for the young Italian but being refreshed since retiring from the French Open and not playing because of high school exams (yes you read that right) i'll take his confidence in this match against Hurkacz who has somehow fallen off a cliff since winning Miami losing six matches in a row and two on grass.

[Jeff_Black]

With the London weather holding up and looking good i'll add a few more plays for today.

Not so great with the risky plays, solid so far with the lines...Picked some good spots and hopefully that'll continue. Still no idea how Busta who hasn't won a R1 match at Wimbledon opened up as a favourite. No idea what the closing line was but I'm guessing Querrey shortened a bit...


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Lloyd George Harris vs Andrey Rublev
Handicap: Andrey Rublev -6, 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I think it'll be a tough day in the office for Harris to trouble Rublev. He's looked good on grass and despite the slow start here I think he will adjust well on this surface. It'll be a first but I think he can get it done.


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Andy Murray vs Oscar Otto
Handicap: Andy Murray -5, 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I made it a point to follow how Murray responds to the five set challenge at his home slam, some may say where he draws his inspiration the most, and he definitely passed with flying colours so far. Whilst I'm not completely sold on his fitness and movement, he was far from the mover he used to be he still showed enough and shades of the old Murray to make me think in this matchup that there is enough of a gulf in class and quality between these two that Murray will want to continue his run here at Wimbledon.

[strat1x]

Good pick on Rublev I tailed it. -5.5

[Jeff_Black]

Good pick on Rublev I tailed it. -5.5

Thanks. Liking his form. Interesting match if he meets Novak in the QF. Got a bit fortunate with the Murray backdoor cover. Like that he can play five sets and not faulter. Would have been a physical challenge for sure so hopefully he can recover.

26 - 26 - 4 (+8.825u)

Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Sam Querrey vs James Duckworth
Set Handicap: Sam Querrey -2.5 sets, 2.36 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I think this will be another routine win for Sam Querrey who was pretty solid in his first round firing off 22 aces whilst being solid off his first serve. Not only that but he fired a healthy ratio of 61 winners to 30 UE. I don't see him dropping a set to his inferior opponent so taking the market with the best odds available as I do think again it will be a three set win. Busta is a better player then Duckworth even though grass feels like it suits Duckworth better. Even still Duckworth is more of a Challenger level guy and the difference will be on show in this matchup. They've already played once on grass and Querrey won in two sets. He will be tough to break again and provided he doesn't go walkabouts mentally he should win in straight sets again.


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Kei Nishikori vs Jordan Thompson
Set Handicap: Kei Nishikori -2.5 sets, 2.46 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I could probably post similar reasons for this matchup, that the levels in ability and talent are vast which will be exposed in this matchup. And that Thompson, while playing well took five sets to beat a guy who does not look comfortable on grass at all while Nishikori has made multiple QF and second week appearances. He did not have much trouble putting away the highly talented and big serving Popyrin, who is a better player then Thompson and bar a mental lapse should win this one comfortably too.


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Mikael Ymer
Total Games: Under 33.5, 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I think the Canadian kid wins in straight sets again. Ymer may be a sterner challenge then Monteiro but Felix was tough to break in his 1R match winning 40/46 points on his first serve and only losing 13 points on serve on it's own. Ymer came into the tournament terribly out of form as well as having never having won a main draw match at Wimbledon. While it is admirable he fought mentally to win that five set match against Tsonga, Jo has been battling his own injuries and confidence and in defeat it looked like he has been happy to call it a day career wise. Having been 7-2 on grass so far I think Felix has big goals and aspirations despite some disappointing slam results in the past.

[Jeff_Black]

Want to have a think on a few others before i pull the trigger but looking at...

Gasquet to make life difficult for Federer in their matchup. I think the public will respect Federer too much because of reputation but I think Gasquet can nab a set and put up a challenge. Perhaps the over or something...Federer matched up well against Mannarino in the past as well (who is an inferior player to Gasquet) and was playing with no rhythm and UE.

It was a five setter and there isn't much of a break but I feel the odds disrespect Nishioka a bit too much...Bedene is not that much better then the odds suggest and match up wise it should be closer...Nishoika should be on a high and having plenty of confidence in a solid win against grass lover Isner

Two that I'm considering for overs Johnson/Fritz Chardy/Ivashka, I can't seperate on h2h/line and don't like taking a line when I think it can be close, all looked tough to break and at 40 for both I can see five sets...food for thought...

[beefcake]

Whats up with Korda? He might be the best player of all
USA guys right now..

[OVAKUL]

Steve Johnson was knocking on the door in both sets. Looks like Over 41 gets there.

[beefcake]

Only reason murray is +250 is that the bookies factored that he played 5 tough sets and shapo had a walkover..This is alot closer match.Hella value on murray.He looks in great shape and with a day of rest will have more than enough to compete here.Home crowd edge too..Looks like a night match again.

[Jeff_Black]

Only reason murray is +250 is that the bookies factored that he played 5 tough sets and shapo had a walkover..This is alot closer match.Hella value on murray.He looks in great shape and with a day of rest will have more than enough to compete here.Home crowd edge too..Looks like a night match again.

Yep I'm a fan of the play too. Shapovalov narrowly escaped the Kohlscriebber game and I think the odds aren't close enough.

Whats up with Korda? He might be the best player of allUSA guys right now..

Yep, really enjoying seeing him develop into one of the best and should be in the top 20 by the end of the year at this rate. Another good result at the US Open should help too amongst other tournaments. Still can be shaky closing out some of these matches but nonetheless he's making solid progress.
True to form the best American players have European roots


26 - 29 - 4 (+5.825u)

Terrible results. In particular Querrey and Nishikori who both played and returned really poorly. Kei made 49 UE and Querrey had a high count too, looks like his court played slower then some of the main ones from the naked eye test. But we move on anyway to today...

[Jeff_Black]

Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman vs Marton Fuscovics
Moneyline: Marton Fuscovics, 2.08 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Whilst Schwartzman has taken advantage of a good draw and the flattening out of his groundstrokes can be effective on grass Fuscovics is the guy who prefers playing here, and should have a better time dictating rallies here, against a guy who's serve hasn't been great. Fuscovics has also had a good test against two solid and big serving/hitting players on grass in Sinner and Vesely. I think he can get the job done again.


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Novak Djokovic vs Denis Kudla
Handicap: Novak Djokovic -9.5, 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I genuinely thought Kevin Anderson was going to put up a sterner challenge then he did and he did fire plenty of rockets with his serve, but Novak showed once again he was a man on a mission, behind a difficult to win points against serve but an UE count of only 6 compared to 25 winners. Like their matchup a few years ago I think whilst Kudla is a sound player on grass his strengths play into Novak's hand ands in the long run should be comfortably accounted for and won't be able to go toe to toe the whole time.


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Sebastian Korda vs Dan Evans
Moneyline: Sebastian Korda, 2.10 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I really wanted to take the kid Korda in his first match against De Minaur but knowing that De Minaur plays with heart and Korda's inexperience here, he handled it like an absolute pro. Evans will probably be a tricky opponent with the crowd behind him and the ability to force and frustrate errors out of Korda with his slice shots but I think Korda more then has the power and ground strokes to equally make life difficult for the Brit. Happy to ride his form in this instance.


Wimbledon 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Denis Shapovalov vs Andy Murray
Moneyline: Andy Murray, 3.75 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

As discussed above, definitely feeling the love for Murray's odds. Don't think they are that far apart in terms of ability at the moment and mentally Murray doesn't mind getting into a dogfight in these sort of matches like he has so far even though his best tennis is behind him. He loves Wimbledon the crowds love him and he knows its an open draw where he is placed. If Shapovalov gets frustrated, expect inconsistencies from him.


Passing on, but do feel like Tiafoe may be due for a letdown, Khachanov is no slouch and I do think the odds on Tiafoe are too short. Rublev I feel is solid too but not sure what kind of Fognini turns up. He beat Djere who's far from great on grass but lost a set 0-6. If Rublev is on and doesnt drop his concentration expect a 3 set easy win but I am passing because I'm not sure if Fognini can nab a set and get the cover.

[Vene1616]

Korda was this close to win another match where he was lined around EVENS

[beefcake]

Impressed with Felix p!at today.Don't see any reason why he can't beat Berrentini.I think Kerber is on a roll...her vs Barry would be an epic semi if they meet.

[Jeff_Black]

Impressed with Felix p!at today.Don't see any reason why he can't beat Berrentini.I think Kerber is on a roll...her vs Barry would be an epic semi if they meet.

Yeah even if Kyrgios didn't retire it wouldn't have mattered in my opinion. Felix has been match prepped and would have wore him down anyway. It would be a confidence boost to win in 5 after being up 2-0 sets, looks like he took some good lessons after his choke against Karatsev in Australia.
I am looking forward to his QF with Berreteni but yeah he's a bit undervalued at the moment going up Berrenteni's grass form.

Korda was this close to win another match where he was lined around EVENS

Bizzare finish to that match with neither player being able to hold serve at the very end of that match, felt like a WTA match in that regard lol.
Look for him to do well on those US hardcourts/Masters as well as the US Open. I did read he is skipping the Olympics to play in Atlanta which I think is a good move as he is only 20 and will have 2-3 chances at the Olympics. But he's one of the first that seems to have an all court game, and can play on hard/clay/grass. He definitely looked disappointed at the net in his loss to Khachanov but he will be better off for it. Not too bold to say he can storm into the top 10 with a solid Summer Series in the US, if not top 20.

An extra day to think about things from our point of view but have been impressed with the way Shapovalov's turned things around. He proved me and maybe many others wrong after plenty of inconsistencies in the slams but he's also a Junior Wimbledon Champion so he knows how to play on grass. Beating Bautista and Murray in 3 sets after a slow start to the tournament isn't something you would have banked on earlier in his career. Whatever issues he has that forced him to miss the French aren't there.

Even though he's playing over two days and has had a few more miles I'm still not sure Federer is a safe thing against Medvedev. He hasn't exactly had the most challenging draw and it was interesting hearing his words that a closed roof suits his game less as he has felt it was slower but at the same time it lets him take the ball earlier. Further hinting his struggles against Mannarino with that. I don't think Medvedev is going to give him that much time with the way he plays but he has certainly showed some grit in his match against Cilic and maybe now Hurkacz who has also had a weird turnaround on form going from winning Miami, to a six game losing streak to making the 4th round here...

Food for thought over the next day and a half!

[Jeff_Black]

As for womens Kerber is an interesting one. I don't follow it anywhere near as much as the Men's but at the big events where there is more at stake and you've had a bit of information and tape to work with as the games have progressed she isn't a bad pick out of a bad bunch outside of Barty who hasn't been at all that convincing but good enough.
Jabeur has also has a pretty good run in this tournament. Barty could lose and it could be a four horse race of 5/1 shots lol.

[beefcake]

Thanks as always Jeff.I think it will be a kerber and Ons final to be honest.Yeah barty seems ripe for an upset either today or most likely thursday the way she has been skating by.Talk about a shaky #1..But hey its the WTA so of course nothing would surprise me.

[Jeff_Black]

Yep she could win it all and no one would bat an eyelid lol. Kerber trending at around +200 or thereabouts which isn't too bad but it goes to show you what the WTA is like, Kerber has had a very mediorce three years for someone who has won 3 slams but hasn't made it to a QF since her last slam win here.

On the other side Bjorn Borg's son, Leo Borg is playing in the Juniors here and is an interesting follow. He lost in three sets in Paris to the number 1 seeded junior in the Round of 16 there and has been playing okay. If his rise is anything like Korda's there are some good juniors to be worth following!
And no doubt his family will be supporting him the way Seb's has.

[Jeff_Black]

Some interesting observations that proved why Djokovic is one step ahead of the rest. There are also other tidbits of information elsewhere that are probably meaningful but here's what I found interesting.

For those who watched the whole match and paid attention to certain details you would have noticed this as well.

As it is already known, Djokovic's kick slice first serve is a hard one to return. In many of matches against Nadal when he needs to mix it up and win crucial points he will throw this in. Against a one handed shot it (in this instance against Berreteni) it is effective because it forces him to defensively chip in his forehand return and then sprint to the vacant ad court to cover the next attacking shot to his backhand wing. Overall he won 21 from 22 of these points out wide.
In the example against Nadal, a shorter reach two handed backhand, it is also extremely effective.
It also allowed to Djokovic to serve and volley and take advantage of Berreteni's defensive block forehand returns.

On the Ad Court, Djokovic only landed 50% of his first serves whenever he went down the T but won every point on first serve when he did. That's 34 from 36 points from these two specific locations. It has always been a well disguised and difficult to return against service location but when the first serve lands in the sweet spot its close to impossible to return effectively.

Despite what people say about slowing down of the courts, grass etc there was actually less baseline rallies nearly 70% that were 0-4 in length. With Berreteni's style of play and power hitting it would be fair to assume he would take advantage of this but that is also wrong. Djokovic won 104 of these points in comparison to Berreteni's 85. I guess in part thanks to some of the above notes.

Berreteni's exposed weaknesses above can also be highlighted by his error count. Backhand winners were in favour of Berreteni 6 to 5 but Errors (Forced and Unforced) he had more 42 in comparison to Djokovic's 35. That's only a differential of 7 errors. However on the forehand side Berreteni hit 18 winners to Djokovic's 10 but committed a whopping 64 forced and unforced errors to Djokovic's 34 with a differential of 22.

It did look close at times but there was a pattern of when Djokovic was able to exploit his opponents weaknesses at times. I'm sure there was other stuff that was observed, and as usual he dominates second serve points and return points won but it'll be an interesting observation for future matches or against players with similar styles of games or whether he adopts the same tactics on a different surface.

[Jeff_Black]

With that we say goodbye to a memorable Wimbledon and look towards a few futures

ATP Hamburg 500

Thinking of backing the field in this event, not too sold on the two favourites and Tsitsipas is way too short.

Nikoloz Basilashvili @ 14.00 on Bet365, Stake: 0.5u play
Hard not to go with a 2x former champ. He beat 2 good clay players in his last run here and I think he can go for a good run again at the odds at present. I think if he plays Djere or Struff he can beat them and he has won another title on German soil in 2021 winning Munich against players he may possibly play here.

Albert Ramos Vinolas @ 17.00 on Bet365, Stake: 0.5u play
Feel like the bottom half of the draw is open enough that he can beat anyone if asked. In the past he hasn't minded the July window for clay events making back to back finals in 2019. I was tossing up between him and Del Bonis with the odds present despite the inferior h2h I think he can make a run in this bottom half of the draw.


ATP Bastad 250

Lorenzo Musetti @ 8.00 on Bet365, Stake: 1u play
This draw is also pretty open so happy to take one of the outsiders. Ruud is beatable and Fognini is unreliable. I think Musetti can break through and win his first title, despite his youth he built up his French Open form nicely. I think winning his quarter and maybe even half is doable so happy to take a stap at it.

ATP Newport 250

Ivo Karlovic @ 41.00 on Bet365, Stake: 0.5u play
This field doesn't have a clear cut favourite and even the favourites are very beatable. Ivo is still kicking it and is the oldest champion here at 37 in 2016 so why not break that record? heh. He hasn't played a whole lot of tournaments but at those odds with the open field it's an okay stab.

Will see how the first round of matches unfold and go from there wagers wise.

[Jeff_Black]

Ugh, Musetti a victim of a round one surprise loss. Not ideal but always expected with these sorts of draws that there will be surprises.

[Jeff_Black]

28 - 31 - 4 (+5.005u)

ATP Hamburg 500, Mens Singles, R2
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Dominik Koepfer
Moneyline: Moneyline: Dominik Koepfer, 7.51 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Taking a stab here against a favourite early. It's surprising how often it happens. And there already have been upsets in these events. Tsitsipas has played one match in the last month and despite being one of the top clay players during the first clay swing, he may be lacking a bit of confidence and match practice and against someone who has played a game already and knows the German courts well. He was sharp in his round one match and served well. It could be a tricky one for a first match here.


ATP Newport 250, Mens Singles, R2
Denis Kudla vs Jenson Brooksby
Set Handicap: Denis Kudla -1.5 Sets, 2.58 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Brooksby had a good first win on grass but I think the levels between the two players is not quite close enough for me to think he can back it up. I'll back Kudla who looked pretty good at Wimbledon and with his variety of slice shots and good serving being tough to break through.


ATP Newport 250, Mens Singles, R2
Jordan Thompson vs Yuichi Sugita
Moneyline: Yuichi Sugita, 4.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I don't think there is that big of a disparity in the level of play between these two as the odds suggest. Thompson had some earlier good form on grass but in the past Sugita has also shown he is a capable grass player. In his first round match his serve was difficult to break and I'm looking at that to be a contributor to his victory in this matchup as well.