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Does anyone really make money betting tennis? BE HONEST??
I tried for a few years but was hit and miss and gave it up.. I use to follow it closely but not anymore. Any angles to look for that I missed..
I just look at the ATP rankings and head to head matchups percentages.. Who's playing hot lately and not.. That's how I capped this sport.. https://www.atptour.com/en/rankings/singles
Still couldn't get a solid grip on it.. Gave it up..
It really blows my mind that people expect to profit from the most basic and publicly accessible information they can find. If it were that easy, we'd all be rich. It's just a juvenile mentality. You open mommy's cupboard and expect to see the cookies where they always are. In the real world, mommy hides the cookies, and you have to find them yourself.
ATP/WTA rankings are almost completely meaningless. It's points that the players earned last season. If a player had a terrible year then somehow won the US Open, they'd have a great ranking throughout the entire season until the US Open is played again. If they went out in the first round, then their ranking would be terrible again. H2H is important but only recently. Someone winning 3 in a row vs somebody 7 years ago isn't relevant anymore. The value in tennis for myself is ammo for long shot parlays, betting people to win in 2 sets at + numbers and live betting as the odds can get crazy really quick if one player starts out dominant.
Also a really important thing for me personally is betting at a book that voids retirements. It's going to be really scary betting the Aussie Open at a book that grades wagers after one set as who knows what's going to happen with the stamina of players due to the terrible air quality. One woman already retired in quallies because of the terrible conditions.
Last edited by DR225; 01-14-20 at 04:47 PM.
The difficulty with this sport is the juice that you have to deal with when most of these matches are 50/50 or they can turn on the dime (sakkari/vekic, sabalenka/hseih, and osaka/pliskova for recent examples of craziness). You really have to be disciplined with your bank in this one and to be able to sniff out some successful dog upsets to be ahead. Just betting favorites will bury a person real quickly and at most books, all it takes is a retirement after 1st set to sink you.
The other aspect is player forms are not easily predictable even if you watch their matches. Last week, pliskova was struggling with her serve and then put on a clinic against Osaka. Osaka who looked mentally tough since post USO and 13 straight wins, crumbled and disappeared after screwing up match point. That to me is not handicapable and you are down -170 juice.
Another one is Sabalenka. She looked awful in Shenzen and against Hseih, but then played like a goddess against Halep. A decent amount of the time, there is no explanation for how a players form can be different from match to match.
Last edited by wildemu; 01-15-20 at 11:56 PM.
I think tennis specialists probably more profitable than the average sport.Originally Posted by JIBBBY
But I think it also takes more dedication to follow all the news and know injuries and motivations and surfaces etc than most other sports.
The amount of juice shows that the books know it's a potentially soft market for them.
It's so intriguing cause you only have two fkrs to cap but bruhhhh, I'd be a winning sport Bettor if it weren't for tennis (yea right)
Good post
Surface
Motivation
Possible fatigue
Upcoming bigger tournament following week (Possible tank)
Recent results
H2H
ATP rank and H2H are one of the most irrelevant stats in tennis.
good thread.
i'm extrapolating from other sports, but it sure helps to watch alot of the play in person. you get so much insight from that.
of course, that is alot of time/work/money............
unless, you are already around the tour. and now that i think about it, it's so much better to get all the tournament/tour gossip, which you probably won't get as a dedicated fan.
i'm sure people around the tour can look at some lines and know that they are wrong. and i'm not talking inside info. but general info.
Nadal RG 2018 - win
Novak Wimbledon 2018 - win
Novak US open 2018 - win
Novak AUS open 2019 - win
Nadal RG 2019 - win
Novak Wimbledon 2019 - win
Novak US Open 2019 - loss (injured)
Novak AUS open 2020 ...
Nadal RG 2020 ...
Novak Wimbledon 2020 ...
Plenty of money to be made in tennis it just takes a lot of work. Need to watch it a lot and get the feel for as many players as possible in all kinds of situations. Surface, location , effort level at different atp tournament levels, etc. The better you understand certain players the more edge you have over the betting Public.
SBR Lou used to post tons of winners before he got hired .
Solid in Tennis he is.
I see what you mean. I am going to deposit 100 and parlay every Djokovic ML this year and roll it over for at least 50 matches.
You are better off trying your luck in the 500/250 events for outright. Plenty of decent money to be made there, rather betting on guys who are less then 3/1 to win slams with less reward.
I'm sure once the big three retire Men's Tennis will be more like Golf and Womens Tennis with more majors winners and one off guys type of thing.
There's more money to be made in challenger I think. You get to know young players coming up & better odds. There's a lot of solid gatekeepers and some reliable losers.
The majors are one of the easiest money makers in all of sports
I try to avoid 1st rounds. I've been more profitable since avoiding 1st rounds. Tennis is a week to week sport.
After the 1st round, I have a better idea of who wants to play that week and who doesn't, who's feeling good and who isn't. Plus there's more to look at for 2nd rounds and beyond in the week, like serving stats, how the surface is playing, among other things.
Yes, but it is also the sport that can put me on the most tilt due to serving for matches and spread covers up 40-0 and getting broke to lose.
I need to hedge more and find a happy medium there. Tennis is great sport to cap, just gotta watch the players alot. Get a feel for 10 players and focus on capping their matches.
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