1. 01-23-19 05:28 PM #1
    Pinocchio
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    Collins to beat Kvitova tonight

    Hear me out, before you start rolling your eyes.

    Collins' odds so far...

    vs Goerges - over 4:1, wins
    vs Garcia - over 3:1, wins
    vs Kerber - over 5:1, wins

    Usually bookies get the message after a few scary performances (example, Bautista Agut) and don't offer so much free money to be won, but this still wasn't enough to make her a favourite against Pavlyuchenkova; Collins still won, and had a match point at 5-0 in the third, almost administering a bagel, after already bagelling Kerber in an earlier round.

    Against Kvitova, she's 4:1 again.

    Am I missing something here, other than a good opportunity to make a shitload of money?

    Collins gets no respect. Her actual chances of winning are way higher than any of these odds show. Kvitova is an erratic power striker, sure she's playing well right now, and has molested a few also-rans, but hasn't been seriously tested. I have noticed that Kvitova looks really good, until she plays someone that can take some heat, and hammer some winners home themselves. Then all of a sudden, it does not look like she's playing so well anymore, and her unforced errors become the center of attention and the main reason for her 'bad' performance. At the end of the match stats show that she played awful, but in reality it was the same Kvitova, she just got bullied around a bit more than usual and that made all the difference.

    Yes, Kvitova did beat Collins a couple of weeks ago at Brisbane in tough three sets, but it was Collins who served for the match first, having won the first set, up 5:4 in the second with a break.

    So how on earth is she 4:1 again after all this?

    I'm parlaying her with Jose Aldo (also an undeserved underdog against Renato Moicano) for a combined 11:1.
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  2. 01-23-19 05:42 PM #2
    brodie
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    kvit determined and playing some of her best. collins doesnt have the power to hang. -440 is a gift

    also, moicano will destroy aldo
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  3. 01-23-19 05:49 PM #3
    Demonata
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    Im pissed the match keeeps getting pushed back. Now doesn't even start for like 3 hours. Was supposed to start in 13 damn minutes.kvitova and osaka winning tonight
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  4. 01-23-19 05:51 PM #4
    terpkeg
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    Collins yes. Aldo no.
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  5. 01-23-19 05:51 PM #5
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by brodie View Post
    kvit determined and playing some of her best. collins doesnt have the power to hang. -440 is a gift

    also, moicano will destroy aldo

    Collins had match point vs Kvitova 3 weeks ago... they both have dlevated their game since. Please tell me how its a gift? Anisimova, shit the bed on returns having a let down match after beating Sabalenka... A tired average looking barty had no fight back last match
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  6. 01-23-19 05:52 PM #6
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Im pissed the match keeeps getting pushed back. Now doesn't even start for like 3 hours. Was supposed to start in 13 damn minutes.kvitova and osaka winning tonight
    How is Osaka winning tonight? Pliskova has been on fire. Osaka keeps making Unforced errors
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  7. 01-23-19 05:57 PM #7
    jtoler
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    collins loses easily tonight and would have lost last match had that talentless fat hog not choked like she always does
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  8. 01-23-19 05:59 PM #8
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtoler View Post
    collins loses easily tonight and would have lost last match had that talentless fat hog not choked like she always does
    Lol.... Fat hog... its true i was like fck lay off chips. She died out in that 3rd set
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  9. 01-23-19 06:04 PM #9
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidGoliath5003 View Post
    How is Osaka winning tonight? Pliskova has been on fire. Osaka keeps making Unforced errors
    Fatigue for starters and after beating an opponent like serena it could be a let down game. Ploskova had a lot of 3 setters recently and i think should have lost plemty of times before getting here.her last 6 matches 5 have been 3 setters. I think osaka way quicker and the longer rallys more tired pliskova gets.also osaka is better at winning second serves and returning serves.
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  10. 01-23-19 07:04 PM #10
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Fatigue for starters and after beating an opponent like serena it could be a let down game. Ploskova had a lot of 3 setters recently and i think should have lost plemty of times before getting here.her last 6 matches 5 have been 3 setters. I think osaka way quicker and the longer rallys more tired pliskova gets.also osaka is better at winning second serves and returning serves.
    Dude... i promise you there will not a be a letdown for pliskova in a semi finsl match. Second of all pliskova has been smashing winners all tourney. Osaka has been ok this tournament, shes hit winners but liads of Uforced errors as well. Maybe im way off but i see pliskova hitting lots of winners here.
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  11. 01-23-19 07:53 PM #11
    Demonata
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidGoliath5003 View Post
    Dude... i promise you there will not a be a letdown for pliskova in a semi finsl match. Second of all pliskova has been smashing winners all tourney. Osaka has been ok this tournament, shes hit winners but liads of Uforced errors as well. Maybe im way off but i see pliskova hitting lots of winners here.
    It opened near a pickem now osaka bigger favorite. Pliskova might lose bad. I think her serve will be off and osaka better at rallys
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  12. 01-23-19 09:35 PM #12
    jtoler
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    you guys should have been loading up on kvit live down a break she aint losing
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  13. 01-23-19 09:39 PM #13
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtoler View Post
    you guys should have been loading up on kvit live down a break she aint losing
    Its 100 degrees... collins is used to heat... if it goes 3 sets kovitova will melt
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  14. 01-23-19 09:45 PM #14
    sunshineSpecial
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    Why do they keep offering such great odds? I took a small amount on her last game based on "forum excitement." Went a little bigger tonight, hope she comes through @ 4.50
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  15. 01-23-19 09:49 PM #15
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Wow indoors probably favors kvitova here
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  16. 01-23-19 09:53 PM #16
    terpkeg
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    Yea, that sucks. Kvitova would have wilted.
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  17. 01-23-19 09:56 PM #17
    Jeff_Black
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    Women should never be so short deep in slams...
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  18. 01-23-19 09:59 PM #18
    jtoler
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidGoliath5003 View Post
    Its 100 degrees... collins is used to heat... if it goes 3 sets kovitova will melt
    well kvit just won at sydney in the same heat from what I see collins not doing much like last match but pts are being gifted to her
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  19. 01-23-19 10:21 PM #19
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Lol collins gets into it
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  20. 01-23-19 10:23 PM #20
    Jeff_Black
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    What's up with Ramos' microphone? Heard someone yell out 'suck it up princess' then someone made a Serena reference hahahaha
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  21. 01-23-19 10:28 PM #21
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Yup roof closing killed this one.
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  22. 01-23-19 10:31 PM #22
    flabrah5
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    I don't even think she's going to cover the +4.5 game spreads anymore either. She's emotionally deflated. Pliskova is locked in.
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  23. 01-23-19 10:31 PM #23
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtoler View Post
    well kvit just won at sydney in the same heat from what I see collins not doing much like last match but pts are being gifted to her
    It was 85 degrees that day.. kvitova is a pale girl from Europe 3 sets would burn that girl bad. collins played in the California heat growing up shes used to it... kinda the reason why shes pissed the roof closed. Indoors is kviotovas bread and butter
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  24. 01-23-19 10:32 PM #24
    chargers4222
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    Quote Originally Posted by flabrah5 View Post
    I don't even think she's going to cover the +4.5 game spreads anymore either. She's emotionally deflated. Pliskova is locked in.
    She better be, she plays Osaka soon.
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  25. 01-23-19 10:32 PM #25
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by flabrah5 View Post
    I don't even think she's going to cover the +4.5 game spreads anymore either. She's emotionally deflated. Pliskova is locked in.
    No kvitova is in perfect conditions now. Collins is an outdoor player
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  26. 01-23-19 10:40 PM #26
    flabrah5
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    Quote Originally Posted by chargers4222 View Post
    She better be, she plays Osaka soon.
    Haha my bad, you know I meant Kvitova.

    This match is scarily on it's way to u20 games after a 7-6 1st set. That would be brutal.
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  27. 01-23-19 10:42 PM #27
    Conqueror
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    What rubbish is this? Got Collins +5 at Bookmaker. Now, that's about gone.
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  28. 01-23-19 10:42 PM #28
    flabrah5
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    Wow the 3rd break. I almost actually played o20 games and was bitterly mad after the 1st thinking a 6-2+ was a lock. That's gambling for you. Cold, cold, cold.
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  29. 01-23-19 10:46 PM #29
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Conqueror View Post
    What rubbish is this? Got Collins +5 at Bookmaker. Now, that's about gone.
    Roof closed as the tiebreaker started... Best news for Kvitova..
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  30. 01-23-19 10:47 PM #30
    Conqueror
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    Quote Originally Posted by flabrah5 View Post
    Haha my bad, you know I meant Kvitova.

    This match is scarily on it's way to u20 games after a 7-6 1st set. That would be brutal.
    Brutal!
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  31. 01-23-19 10:48 PM #31
    flabrah5
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    Absurd. Sorry for anyone who bet o20 games.
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  32. 01-23-19 10:52 PM #32
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by flabrah5 View Post
    Absurd. Sorry for anyone who bet o20 games.
    Unlucky man... although knowing the weather is a huge factor too. Kvitovas game is night and day from outdoor to indoor
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  33. 01-23-19 11:06 PM #33
    Demonata
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    Kvitova too easyyyyyy
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