1. 06-03-18 10:18 AM #1
    beefcake
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    With the start of grass season tommorrow in Surbiton I figured we would start a discussion about all the weekly tourneys as they seem to not get alot of love here at SBR.
    Not sure how much I will be able to post with real life getting in the way but I will post the tourneys starting for the upcoming week on Sunday from the ATP site and a few bullet points about each and then we go from there.Sound good?So feel free to let er rip.Lots of value in challys IMO if you know players outside top 100.

    Week of June 3rd-9th

    Surbiton..Grass...127000
    First one of year! Saw hewitt and Krygios playing doubles.Usual band of grass court specialists.My boy brown tyring to save his seaon.Lots of injuries.
    Lacko usually is good on grass as well as Stakhovsky

    Poznan..Clay 64000
    Lot of stiffs from FO qualies and main draw trying to claim points.Motivation might be hard here for them.Wouldnt touch Klizan,Anderozzi or Granollers.
    Balazas kid could go far
    look to qualifiers,Wild cards, unseeded to do well.Only a 64000 purse so skinny points and money



    Protesjov Clay 127000
    Bigger tourney so I think motivation will be better
    Munar had a good FO..could do damage
    Maybe Pella..but the seeds look to be far better

    Skyment..50k Clay
    What a shit purse..Doubt many folks will travel for this.lots of local ukraines,russians,kazaks
    Hugo Dellien arguably is the hottest player on the whole ATP tour..he is 15-1 on clay with 3 clay chally titles.Still hard to travel from Italy to Kazakstan.
    Lot of lower ranked guys.Hell I wouldnt travel to Kazak to play tennis for a friggin 50k purse.

    Want a guy who may surprise..Munoz De la nava..
    Last edited by beefcake; 06-03-18 at 01:13 PM.
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  2. 06-03-18 11:54 AM #2
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Thanks for this Beefcake. Ill do my best by posting what i see.
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  3. 06-04-18 01:59 AM #3
    Honeybadger44
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    Grass challengers could offer some nice value. Not much data on these players and their success on grass, causing market to be all over the place in some cases.

    Moraings game should work well on grass. Huge serve. Nice flat backhand with short angle. Lefty slice serve from ad side...

    Jay clarke is very talented but might be getting too much respect here because he is a brit. His game is neither big nor flat to make a big result on grass atm, imho. And he has a very tough opponent today.
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  4. 06-07-18 10:21 AM #4
    beefcake
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    Dellien in the semis in Kazakstan..guy is literally on nuclear fire.Klizan took a turd dive like I thought .Balazs in the semis.Old man Melzer making a run on grass.
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  5. 06-07-18 10:50 AM #5
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Hey Beefcake, what do you think of Jahn vs Vatutin?
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  6. 06-07-18 01:16 PM #6
    Honeybadger44
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    Quote Originally Posted by beefcake View Post
    Dellien in the semis in Kazakstan..guy is literally on nuclear fire.Klizan took a turd dive like I thought .Balazs in the semis.Old man Melzer making a run on grass.
    Yeah, Melzer made run over two guys which are not grass courts specialists. But there was some noticable rust in his game, especially when points got out of that serve/return period. And that is going to be a problem vs another grass court natural like Dan Evans.
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  7. 06-07-18 07:30 PM #7
    beefcake
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    Yeah Evans should take him.Not a bad price of just over -200
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  8. 06-07-18 07:31 PM #8
    beefcake
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidGoliath5003 View Post
    Hey Beefcake, what do you think of Jahn vs Vatutin?

    Sorry man, just saw this.Match is 1 set all..Could be either guy I guess..
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  9. 06-07-18 11:24 PM #9
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by beefcake View Post
    Sorry man, just saw this.Match is 1 set all..Could be either guy I guess..
    Yeah i took Jahn
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  10. 06-08-18 01:17 AM #10
    kenshirooo
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidGoliath5003 View Post
    Yeah i took Jahn
    I took him too. Let's hope he makes it. Any thoughts for today challengers ? I think Evans is gonna beat Melzer.
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  11. 06-08-18 02:11 AM #11
    Honeybadger44
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    Quote Originally Posted by kenshirooo View Post
    I took him too. Let's hope he makes it. Any thoughts for today challengers ? I think Evans is gonna beat Melzer.
    He probably should, but is there really value at -200? I don't know. Despite some rust, I still gotta be careful going against seasoned grass court specialist like Melzer. Probably going to wait for a better in-play opportunity.

    And if you are willing to lay that type of juice, I think De Minaur might be a better selection. Him and Bhambri have similar playing sytle, only that De Minaur is better mover, plays with more energy, handles situations at the net really well... Bhambri is a good bet vs guys who likes to force things, because he's good at countering stuff and redirecting until opponent commits error. He ain't getting much of that from Alex today I belive.
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  12. 06-08-18 02:16 AM #12
    Honeybadger44
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    Quote Originally Posted by kenshirooo View Post
    I took him too. Let's hope he makes it. Any thoughts for today challengers ? I think Evans is gonna beat Melzer.
    He probably should, but is there really value at -200? I don't know. Despite some rust, I still gotta be careful going against seasoned grass court specialist like Melzer. Probably going to wait for a better in-play opportunity.

    And if you are willing to lay that type of juice, I think De Minaur might be a better selection. Him and Bhambri have similar playing sytle, only that De Minaur is better mover, plays with more energy, handles situations at the net really well... Bhambri is a good bet vs guys who likes to force things, because he's good at countering stuff and redirecting until opponent commits error. He ain't getting much of that from Alex today I belive.
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  13. 06-08-18 12:56 PM #13
    beefcake
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    Dellien finally lost.Thought something was up with Cid of only +175
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  14. 06-08-18 11:46 PM #14
    Honeybadger44
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    Roberto Cid at +220 no brainer. Hanfmann is actually a easier match up for him then Dellien was yesterday.
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  15. 06-08-18 11:47 PM #15
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honeybadger44 View Post
    Roberto Cid at +220 no brainer. Hanfmann is actually a easier match up for him then Dellien was yesterday.
    Yup i just posted the same thing.... i took Cid 1st set @2.74
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  16. 06-08-18 11:53 PM #16
    Honeybadger44
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    Good luck then
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  17. 06-09-18 12:05 AM #17
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honeybadger44 View Post
    Good luck then
    Good luck as well
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  18. 06-09-18 12:11 AM #18
    nuxx??
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    I've got +300 ML live at my bookie, worth hitting?
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  19. 06-09-18 12:13 AM #19
    nuxx??
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    Also, any thoughts on Poznan/Surbiton semis? I havent followed any challangers this week.
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  20. 06-09-18 04:14 AM #20
    Honeybadger44
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    Not sure about Poznan. I watched surbiton quite a bit. Evans looks good on grass. Chardy is not that good, but hides behind his serve really well so far. So, slight edge to Evans but odds are already there.

    Think De Minaur comes through, but might be slightly bias there. Always liked the De Minaurs energy and how he fights.
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  21. 06-09-18 05:37 AM #21
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honeybadger44 View Post
    Not sure about Poznan. I watched surbiton quite a bit. Evans looks good on grass. Chardy is not that good, but hides behind his serve really well so far. So, slight edge to Evans but odds are already there.

    Think De Minaur comes through, but might be slightly bias there. Always liked the De Minaurs energy and how he fights.
    I could see this going 3 sets. Its always tought to guage Ebden, he beat Stakhovsky who is a decent grass player(for his level) Dminaur trying to get into the main draw of wimbeldon A-ranking 105.... there should be incentive here for him. Top 100 avoid qualification
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  22. 06-09-18 06:05 AM #22
    beefcake
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    Didn't post any games on the women's challys this week but some croatia girl tena Lukas is in the semis of the Bol tourney.little home support i would think from the crowd and she is +350 at 11a.m. Eastern time.Might be worth a dabble at +1.5 sets at I'm guessing at even money
    Last edited by beefcake; 06-09-18 at 06:11 AM.
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  23. 06-09-18 12:59 PM #23
    kenshirooo
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    I'm thinking about combining Hurkacz and De minaur tomorrow. Any thoughts ?
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  24. 06-09-18 01:11 PM #24
    beefcake
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    I like it!
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  25. 06-09-18 04:18 PM #25
    kenshirooo
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    Would you add something to this parlay beefcake ?
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  26. 06-09-18 06:31 PM #26
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Yeah both guys are in solid form... Hurcaz and D’minaur will be top 70 i think by years end
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  27. 06-09-18 07:48 PM #27
    beefcake
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    Quote Originally Posted by kenshirooo View Post
    Would you add something to this parlay beefcake ?
    No man, stick with the 2
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  28. 06-09-18 08:03 PM #28
    beefcake
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    Figure i would get up next weeks tourneys..busy day on Sunday

    Caltanissetta
    , Italy 127,000 purse CLAY

    Clay season seems to never end if you play the Minor Circuit...I swear Italy has the most challis of any country. Call this a hunch but I have noticed in the past that the Wildcard Italians seem to cause upsets fairly often..
    Gulbis in playing and IF(big IF) decides to play his best can win this and finally get a lot of his ranking back with the 125 point first prize.I see old man Estrella Burgos is playing and trying to hang on.Daniel could be spent having to play in a final tomorrow.Maybe fade him.

    Nottingham 127,000 Grass

    The biggest chally grass purse I think. I see that Duckworth trying to continue his comeback.Before his injury he had a good record on grass.Kozlov is in shitty form so maybe take James.De Minaue again is a top seed. if he wins tomm could be a juicy price on old man Jurgen.And Stephan Robert is playing grass..LOL

    Lyon 64,000 Clay

    Looking like the dregs of the Dirt rats again...Young Melzer if he gets his game on might roll all the way if he wants to.Dont really see much as the top prixe is only 90 points...so motivation might be hard to find. maybe some Wildcard or qualie takes this..

    Almaty...50,000

    The Doubefaultistan tour continues..Dam my hats off to these guys for playing all the way out in Bum Fukk Egypt..
    Hanafman and Dellien again are here..Cid should be full of confidence and roll Duck he Lee...
    Careful with this one gents..Real men play Grass this time of year..
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  29. 06-09-18 10:08 PM #29
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Skugor ML @1.70
    Harrison ML @1.84

    Hurckaz ML @2.10
    D’Minaur ML @1.77

    Those would be my challenger plays tomorrow
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  30. 06-09-18 10:12 PM #30
    nuxx??
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    Could Hurkacz potentially be tired?
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  31. 06-09-18 10:16 PM #31
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by nuxx?? View Post
    Could Hurkacz potentially be tired?
    Doubt it, hes young and hes only played 3 days in a row... judging by the duration of the matches the points were not long... 2 hours was his longest match. Taro hasnt been great this tourney he keeps barely getting by.
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  32. 06-10-18 02:10 PM #32
    Honeybadger44
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    Quote Originally Posted by beefcake View Post
    Figure i would get up next weeks tourneys..busy day on Sunday

    ...

    Nottingham 127,000 Grass

    The biggest chally grass purse I think. I see that Duckworth trying to continue his comeback.Before his injury he had a good record on grass.Kozlov is in shitty form so maybe take James.De Minaue again is a top seed. if he wins tomm could be a juicy price on old man Jurgen.And Stephan Robert is playing grass..LOL

    ...
    Don't rule him out that fast. his second serve is an issue for sure. But everything else in his game works fine on grass. Moves side to side well and hits a really good flat forehand on the run, which can be deadly on grass. has good hands to counter those low bounces on grass.

    i am not thrilled about the match up vs Bublik, but there might be some favorable spots for backing him in next few weeks on grass,
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  33. 06-10-18 06:19 PM #33
    beefcake
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    Good info thanks!
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  34. 06-12-18 07:25 PM #34
    beefcake
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    Dam Delliens run came to a halt.+700 dog beat him.

    Kinda like Balazs tomm at about -133.Dont read much into Rolas win as Anderozzi prob could have gave 2 shiits about the match.
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  35. 06-14-18 06:26 PM #35
    beefcake
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    Wow, 4 nice sized dogs in Lyon tommorrow.Tatlot and Muller for some home cooking dogs>
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