[danwinkler]

Krystina Pliskova +170 against Serena
This is the inferior pliskova who is not that great but facing Serena for the first time. Serena hasn't played in clay court since 2016. Partied in the Royal Wedding last week. Motherhood taking up time. Not much practice. Well worth the try on the doggy here. People will be flocking to bet serena at low odds but its a trap.

Ferro +240 against Witthoeft
Witthoeft is in terrible form and her ranking is misleading. She had a decent run on clay last season, especially 3rd round to french open that gave her 130 points but she is really a player that should be ranked 100 to 150. Ferro is nothing special and is a player outside top 200 but recently she had soem decent outing against some players even though she lost most of those matches. Based on form, Ferro should be around +140, so +240 is nice odds and books are overestimating Witthoeft because they know that lots of people will remember her from last years clay season and will bet her even at these garbage odds.

Fucsovics -2.5 Sets (+110) against Pospisil
Pospisil is fragile and garbage on clay. Fucsovics is coming off a nice run winning the Geneva open last week and soem may expect a let down but his game is superior on clay and should easily put away pospisil. Pospisil might retire if the game gets out hand but still worth the try.

1 unit on each.

[Honeybadger44]

Nice bet vs Witthoeft. Situations where public has a wrong perception about certain player can be very profitable if you know how to attack it. Strong find

[Grivas_Digeni]

Nice bet vs Witthoeft. Situations where public has a wrong perception about certain player can be very profitable if you know how to attack it. Strong find

Is Harrison worth a bet during this weather delay? Down 0-2

[Honeybadger44]

Is Harrison worth a bet during this weather delay? Down 0-2

Huh, tough to say. I actually have him pre-game and I watched both sets. Completly wrong approach, trying to hit through Marterer in this damp and heavy conditions. Allowing german to retrive the ball from 4-5 meters behind baseline and wait for errors.
If he changes gameplan now and is willing to fight, there might be some trade value with current odds. Maybe he steals this set and gets and early break in 4th and then you got options what to do with that bet.
But maybe there could be found a better bet, based on momentum shift because of the rain delay. Gavrilova maybe. She's a grinder, her coach always has some good advice during time outs, so I bet they are coming up with some good strategy right now. And Cirstea is one of those streaky hitters, who was definitely hurt by this rain dealy. Because all the momentum she had is gone now.

[Grivas_Digeni]

Huh, tough to say. I actually have him pre-game and I watched both sets. Completly wrong approach, trying to hit through Marterer in this damp and heavy conditions. Allowing german to retrive the ball from 4-5 meters behind baseline and wait for errors.
If he changes gameplan now and is willing to fight, there might be some trade value with current odds. Maybe he steals this set and gets and early break in 4th and then you got options what to do with that bet.
But maybe there could be found a better bet, based on momentum shift because of the rain delay. Gavrilova maybe. She's a grinder, her coach always has some good advice during time outs, so I bet they are coming up with some good strategy right now. And Cirstea is one of those streaky hitters, who was definitely hurt by this rain dealy. Because all the momentum she had is gone now.

Quick break for Gavrilova, she's a hold away from this being a 50/50 match (in bookie's estimation).

[jjgold]

Serena is finished in tennis

fade every tourney

[Chi_archie]

get em

[danwinkler]

Just need pliskova for the sweep, nevertheless profit in the bag already

[HurryUpAndDrink]

well done pal

[BennyBigNuts]

Another 2 day old account who will retire in a week after a few days of burials.
and Hurryupandswallow in here bumping it, what a shock
Just make sure you know whos wta and atp unlike HURRY.

[Grivas_Digeni]

Nice call on Gavrilova yesterday.

[Honeybadger44]

Nice call on Gavrilova yesterday.

Tnx man! I actually had her to win 2nd set at +290. She was 0-2 down in that set, but I saw that covers are coming on the other courts and that there will be rain delay in that match as well. It threw Cirstea off just enough for Gavrilova to take charge.

[Grivas_Digeni]

Question to all you tennis afficionados.

We have Dusan Lajovic vs Alexander Zverev. The former has done ok recently by his standard. The latter is a world-beater this season, threatening every top player he plays and demolishing lesser competition.

I read elsewhere - by a guy who backed Zverev to win a tournament preceding Rome (which he did at +1200) - that he may tire out eventually. That tipster suggested backing Del Potro at big odds since Zverev's odds dropped significantly (he was 'only' +700 to win ATP Rome and, let me remind you, was an in-play favorite vs Nadal at one stage in the final). So the tipster was correct in backing Zverev earlier in the season and incorrect in backing off in the last tournament he played.

So is there a chance Zverev will come down a little bit (in other words, could the tipster be somewhat right about 'getting tired with 'all these matches Zverev played'), especially since he has a very long two weeks ahead of him - undoubtedly in his mind he'll be playing in the semifinal, at the least - or is he likely to demolish Lajovic?

I'm also curious if anyone could give me an estimate of what's more likely:
A) a tie break in the match
B) Lajovic winning a set or more

[shadymcgrady]

I'm no tennis aficionado but I've noticed that Zverev struggles to cover large spreads. He has lazy lapses in his game which is the difference between winning sets 7-6, 7-5 vs 6-3 or more

Lajovic could easily steal a set today

[Grivas_Digeni]

I'm no tennis aficionado but I've noticed that Zverev struggles to cover large spreads. He has lazy lapses in his game which is the difference between winning sets 7-6, 7-5 vs 6-3 or more

Lajovic could easily steal a set today

Here's the first break. Can Lajovic hold?

[Honeybadger44]

spreads in neighberhoud of +8 are usually reserved for nobodies vs elite guys. So from that point of view, this particular +8 was quite disrespetful for the level of tennis that Lajovic has been producing lately.

[HurryUpAndDrink]

I'm no tennis aficionado but I've noticed that Zverev struggles to cover large spreads. He has lazy lapses in his game which is the difference between winning sets 7-6, 7-5 vs 6-3 or more

Lajovic could easily steal a set today

should have checked my FO thread Shady... Lajovic was +7.5, of course I took it

[HurryUpAndDrink]

spreads in neighberhoud of +8 are usually reserved for nobodies vs elite guys. So from that point of view, this particular +8 was quite disrespetful for the level of tennis that Lajovic has been producing lately.

yes, unbelievable... also feel Moutet and Munar were overblown, too high spreads, took all 3 doggies

[jtoler]

spreads in neighberhoud of +8 are usually reserved for nobodies vs elite guys. So from that point of view, this particular +8 was quite disrespetful for the level of tennis that Lajovic has been producing lately.

yeah that +8 was shocking to see against Lajovic. Ive watched him all last week, was in good form.

[Honeybadger44]

yes, unbelievable... also feel Moutet and Munar were overblown, too high spreads, took all 3 doggies

Fantastic job! Hah him on the spread and also took him at +money to win the first set, once he was already break up.

Even thought I had Munar in previous round, I couldn't make a proper estimation on him vs Djokovic, so I skipped.

had my eye on Moutet, but decided to skip as well. Very emotional player. Lots ups and downs, so I'd probably be more comfortable taking him +2.5 sets then games handicap.

yeah that +8 was shocking to see against Lajovic. Ive watched him all last week, was in good form.

Correct. Was great in Madrid prior that a well.

[jtoler]

Even if Zverev bagels here that would be -7 games the +8 still cashes. Good thing he Lajovic was able to muster 1 game in the 4th.

[HurryUpAndDrink]

Even if Zverev bagels here that would be -7 games the +8 still cashes. Good thing he Lajovic was able to muster 1 game in the 4th.

phew... moutet choked, Lajovic choked but still did some damage so +7.5 still safe...

[jtoler]

Cornet 2/27 on bps.

[shadymcgrady]

Anyone looking to take a shot on fuscovics tomorrow? Not that fucstikk is that impressive but rather that Edmund is an idiot

[sunshineSpecial]

He's also due to underperform.

[Grivas_Digeni]

Zverev getting his hands (and face) dirty. I like his chances going forward.