[Jeff_Black]

Because there are a lot of threads sharing tips but not as much discussion (sometimes it happens during Masters/Slams) I want to know what kind of strategies people implement whether it's one or several, and how much shift that changes each week/month/tournament:
- Do you use it sparingly, or do you use it blindly?
- Do you go off form or does home court factor in more?
- Do you go for value (live with the lesser record) or do you play it safe?
- Do you base things more off stats or do you go off a hunch because you've watched a lot of games that week?
- Do you go off reputation? good or bad
- How much does surface (good or bad) factor in to it.
- Do you focus on taking pluses or go for the chalk favs
- Do you try to find good overs matches where both players will win a set

In the past I've stuck to certain things. But realised sometimes you have to change things.

For example when the slams rolled around I used to have a look at the board and look at the biggest underdog lines. Usually these would be +7 or higher. Look at the guy who was favoured, ask myself why and if I wasn't confident in the favourite I would have no issue putting a little less thought in the dog then I usually would.
For example fading a guy like Stan Wawrinka when he would get -7 or -8 in the first 1-3 rounds depending on the opponent was a favourite of mine.

An example of a blind fade that I should have done: One year I remember Benoit Paire played someone in Australia (can't remember who) he was given -8 in the first round, and probably 8-1 or 9-1 ML. Didn't know much about the other guy so didn't play it. Paire was probably seeded as well and so not manys surprise he loses in three sets. Of course not on it at the time but I just had to laugh about it because I've done the blind fade before.

(to the above one I did) It was Paris Masters (JC knows this one cause we talked about it at the time). He was playing a Frenchman at the time (more well known but not really an ATP level player) called Pierre Hughes Herbert. It was the first round. Hughes was about 3.50 or there abouts and probably +4. Very inexperienced on the tour. So I thought why not (his record in Paris was not great) and thought the younger guy would make a match from it. Of course Hughes wins it 6-2 6-2. Betfair and tennis insight were raging. Probably a lot of 5 digit wagers on Paire and he does that (I imagine many other people have stories like this)

[sunshineSpecial]

I've noticed that most people here seem to add handicaps to make their bets as close to 50/50 as possible, to win approximately even money. Isn't this just betting at random? As you'd expect over time, their win/loss ratio is about 50/50 and the ytd is about 0.

[Jeff_Black]

It possibly is. But I think the reason why people do it, is because they know from time to time the bookies will get it wrong which is normal, no different to the everyday bettor either. This obviously applies to undervalued favourite as well.
Tennis being an individuals sport is probably why it's challenging to bet on it, and from a bookmaker's point of view setting odds and lines. Because you know players can tank/throw matches/sets. And not just on ATP/WTA level, but challengers/futures/itfs/satellite events (with lesser markets).

[gambleForLife]

I experimented this month betting only Overs. I did it blindly but it didn't go well lol.

I bet ATP and Challengers. ATP matches, I go mostly by "feeling", as I know most players and their tendecies and playing style. Challenger matches, I go with stats mostly. I take form in consideration more than home court.

I avoid betting on some players, as they are too unpredictable. Fognini, Paire, Verdasco... especially as favorites. They can play really good against top players though, so I sometimes pick them as dogs.

I NEVER bet a guy like Bellucci as favorite, especially against "weak" opponents. The lower the ranking, the more likely Bellucci will screw things up.

Surface is really important. For instance, Thiem is a beast on clay, but he usually struggles on the second half of the season, although not always the bookies reflect this.

I usually only bet spreads or 100+ moneyline, though I will go for -130 favorites sometimes.

I go for overs usually when there are 2 players with good serve and are evenly matched. Like today, I bet O23 on Fritz/Shapovalov match. Yesterday, I bet O 2.5 Sets on Shapovalov/Donaldson match. Shapovalov serves better than Donaldson, but Donaldson has a better return game, so I thought this evened things up. Besides, young players are still too inconsistent, so it happens more often than not that they play a great set and then totally go into tank mode.

And I have no data to back this up, but it seems that when the games spread is at -2.5, the match almost always goes over or the underdog wins straight up. It's just a hunch though and may be just selective memory.

[sunshineSpecial]

Never really used a system but considering this: fade every single game for these players until august and pretty sure you'll end up ahead:

Isner, Sock, Fritz, Kudla