[stepaside777]

tsonga
kovalik
basic m +3.5
goffin

[alexalexex]

tsonga
kovalik
basic m +3.5
goffin

Have you watched the tournament this week. I don’t trust kovalik at all.

[stepaside777]

im chasing value and this matchup odds are really bad setted.

[alexalexex]

I agree. I do this all day every day. Capil has NOT been broken once.

And your value should have lost on 4 separate moments in thenLacko match. Your backer has good foot work but loose with the forehand and too many errors.

Yesterday Poullie was the BEST thinklg I have seen in a while. However that’s because inwatched the Paire match yesterday. He is a basket case.

[alexalexex]

If Copil serves first I’m doubling up on the point spread.

[alexalexex]

I’d Gonzaga it’s Stan too. Very lucky his opponents were a disaster.

[alexalexex]

Go against. NOT Gonzaga.


I like your picks except for Copil match.

[Honeybadger44]

Watched Kovalik in every single match except first qualifying round in this tournament. It's true that some of the matches were almost gift wraped for him, like the Lacko one for example, where his opponent was simply below any acceptable level for ATP match. But that doesn't mean that he didn't deserve to be in this semifinals. His performance vs Baghdatis is best proof for that. He played very good tennis, despite Baghdatis putting a lot of pressure on him throughout entire match. When he was aggressive and went for winners he was winning points. but when he was trying to outsmart Baggy and change the pace, use some variation, he mostly hurt himself with that. So problem for him here could be this. Amount of easy points that Copil wins of of his serve can be frustrating at times. That could lead Kovlaik to think that he needs to change his gameplan in order to improve his chance to win. And as I said, whenever he went outside of his routine, he was hurting himself.

[alexalexex]

Line moving up since 1 am. Now at -234 Copil. We should put our heads together from time to time. I can
Already tell you know your shit. I had a monster Monday so I am not chasing value that much today.

[alexalexex]

only problem for Copil is his hideous yellow shirt.

K can't handle the pace of the serve or Copil backhand.

Your and my daughter share the same birthday. you must be good people.

out of the remaining 5 ATP matches today what are your top 2?

[Honeybadger44]

Presuming you are asking me, this is not the best semifinal pre-game card that I've seen.

I like Goffin to win, but there is definitely not much value to be found there. Gasquet was straight garbage yesterday and even if he raises his level for today, I doubt he'll hurt Goffin. Simply, the things that usually bother his opponents are that he likes to spread the field as wide as possible. hits his shots on different depths in the court with purpose to make opponent run around and make shots on the run. That's no problem for Goffin.

Would love to get better odds for Monteiro. I don't give much credit to Ramos for his win vs melzer. at night time, conditions in Quito are much more similar to the regular ones, But during the day, it's difficult to control the depth on your shots. Monteiro seems to have less problems with that then Ramos.

[alexalexex]

You are very accurate in your assessment. If Dzumhur could have even played at a C level yesterday he would have won. He melted down like Paire would do. To go from up 4-1 is first set to losing 6 games in a row was mind blowing. And in Herbert match Gasket was once again a joke.

RUB not breaking Tsonga in first and second Tsonga service games in the first set was very disappointing. Tsonga looked like h did NOT want to play in his Mahut match.

No real value on Poulie match. Timmer at -160 yesterday against Paire who looked lost again was a different kind of value for me. Similar to Copil value today.

Wawrinka could go down today.

[alexalexex]

Very small plays in Goffin on both money line and -2.5.

Play is
Based on Gasket looking old and lame. And this matchup works very well for gofin.

I had 2 units on Copil -2.5 and 1 unit -195.

Plus 3 units. I am telling you this because this play will be Small.

.3 units Gofin -2.5
.2 units -160

[Honeybadger44]

Agree that Wawrinka might be in danger. But I'll wait for live to see if Basic has the cojones to play him on big stage or is he scared of this big opportunity. Basic actually has a lot of potetntial, which becomes more clear when he plays better players. On challengers, he's more focused on arguing with umpires and breaking rackets.
He can play solid tennis with low number of errors.Keeping the ball in play long enough might make this one interesting, because Stan had ups and downs with his hitting both vs Klizan and Troicki. Getting winners one set, and then bunch of unforced errors in the other.

[alexalexex]

I think Basic can handle it for some reason today.

Was NOT impressed with Martin yesterday against the teenage French kid. Since I found out Goffin was serving fist I added .2 ton-2.5 games. Gasket annoys me.

[alexalexex]

Do you wager on any other sports?

[Honeybadger44]

just tennis and NFL football. I did a lot of euro basketball couple years ago, but had to narrow down the leagues I follow, so I can do it properly.

Regarding Martin, I wouldn't downgrade him much for that match vs Moutet. These conditions in Quito are so difficult for all the players, especially during the day. Warm weather + altitude. It's tough to control the shots and all the guys seems like playing with less pace on the ball. And then when you add that Moutet dragged this match into the mud with his high shots, slices, drops shots... It was almost imposible to find any rhythm against him. That is why I am not downgrading Martin so much for bad performance in that match.

If you watched tournament in Quito and you think hard, how many matches (especially during day) had high quality tennis? From those that I watched - 0. Estrella-Melzer closest to something that resembled a good tennis match.

[chargers4222]

So what's your pick, Martin or RCB?

[Honeybadger44]

none. Gun to the head, I'd take Martin. I noticed a slight pattern where guys with aggressive top spin shots do better in these conditions then the others and he has that. Also, playing in high altitude is not that strange to him, I think. He's a regular on south american challengers and there are many tournaments in Colombia or Ecaudor that are played on higher altitude. Not this extreme, but still...
But sharp money seems to be siding with Carballes. That's why I'm being careful and waiting for in-play opportunities

[alexalexex]

Taking Tsonga tomorrow both ways no matter what.

If Basic wins outright I will have a monster day going

[stepaside777]

Taking Tsonga tomorrow both ways no matter what.

If Basic wins outright I will have a monster day going

tsonga retired,basic did a good job

[alexalexex]

Anything appealing to you today?