[Jeff_Black]

After checking out earlier then I intended to last season (and probably a good thing with the way things were going) and having the chance to sit back and evaluate players both up and coming and declining I thought it'd be a good idea to start off fresh with the new season and avoid losing even more. Hopefully a good season this time around like in 2016.

Bankroll: $2000
Unit Sizes: $100 per 1 unit

No higher then 5% of ones bankroll is recommended per play, for bigger bankrolls maybe 2% or 1%. And adjust accordingly per wins and loss. This time around ill do things a little differently to protect the bankroll, but nonetheless all plays will be as well thought out as possible.

Without further adoo, lets begin!!

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp
Futures/Outrights: Mens Singles
To Win The Tournament: Grigor Dimitrov @ 5.50 on Crownbet
Stake: $50 to profit $225

Some books have released futures odds without even knowing what the draw will be like or whether there will be any last minute withdrawals so I wanted to take the advantage of getting on a player who finished the season strongly and has played well here in previous years.
Including winning the title in Brisbane last year, Dimitrov has played here strongly in the past, losing to Roger Federer twice deep within the draw and Marin Cilic once.

Nadal and Murray are unsurprisingly favoured but both have pulled out of Abu Dhabi to play here despite Murray having a delayed arrival in Australia and some questioning his physical state before the first slam of the year. He is however the only player in the short history of the Brisbane International to defend his title (in 2012-2013). At 5.00 his odds are ok but I think despite having won here before I can't trust his lack of preparation having not played for some months.

Nadal is way too short (at 2.50 in some places), to be considered a value bet and his PR team have wasted no time pumping out the usual knee concerns and that Nadal will take things step by step but I don't believe he is in Brisbane to to win the tournament. In fact in his long tennis career since turning pro (not counting the first year) he is 5-11 in just making it to the final (in the first tournament of the year) and he's 1-5 in those finals winning his lone title in 2014 in Doha against Monfils.

Despite all that I still think Dimitrov is primed to build on his solid 2017 year, and finish to the year by being able to defend his title here (and he has a lot of those points to defend now) and start the year well.

I look at the rest of the draw and aside from the favoured players here I don't see anyone that will be a big threat to the title even if there is a big upset in the field. Nick Kyrgios is always a tough one with question marks, and his odds reflect that, but as much as he can aim up for the big games against the top players, he is just as likely to lose to someone lesser known and that possible lack of motivation may reflect in the odds.

Some books have still left Nishikori on their odds so DO NOT consider him in any futures bets for the Brisbane International. It has already been confirmed that he is pulling out of the Brisbane International for 2018.

[Jeff_Black]

Abu Dhabi Exhibition, Tennis Mubadala, Mens Singles, 1R
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Andrey Rublev
Moneyline: Andrey Rublev @ 2.54 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $154

The second match of Abu Dhabi features the NextGen Finals Runner-Up against Bautista Agut. Bautista Agut has a packed 2018 schedule, including playing here, he is also signed up to play in Chennai India, and Auckland NZ before jetting off to the Australian Open. That's quite some travel and if previous years are anything to go by he will likely withdraw from one if he does very well at another.

Abu Dhabi is a very open draw despite the presence of Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem and I think the chance to win a few matches is very possible for the young Rublev kid. Despite the finish at the NextGen Finals Rublev had a bit of a lull between that and the US Open but he did play a lot of seasoned players including Fernando Verdasco, Dominic Thiem, Juan Martin Del Potro and Alexander Zverev. He also was able to knock off Jack Sock and Tomas Berdych in Beijing.

Exhibition matches are tough to get a gauge on but for young guys like Rublev I think it presents an opportunity to get some quality match time against a quality player in preparation for the tournaments where there are points and prizemoney on offer, and more importantly, the Australian Open. The odds reflect the uncertainty of Bautista and the ceiling of Rublev, and we'll take those odds in this matchup.

[Kiddpokerr]

Subscribed

[Jeff_Black]

Least wait until I have notched up a few wins before making judgement

Anyway was waiting for the other markets to pop up for Abu Dhabi and they have

Abu Dhabi Exhibition, Tennis Mubadala, Mens Singles, 1R
Kevin Anderson vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $96.10

Both these guys have featured in a big Semi Final at the US Open recently and I think there is potential for a 3 set match here. They both had lacklustre finishes to their 2017 campaigns which is why I think there isn't a clear winner in this matchup. Even with Anderson's strong serving, he is known to not keep up that consistency over long matches and Carreno Busta is a player who doesn't mind toughing it out in 3 sets as many of his matches in 2016 have shown. Looking for a hard fought battle here, potentially over 3 sets with a tiebreaker in there.

[Jeff_Black]

^ Just an update on Brisbane futures. Most main media outlets are now reporting that Rafael Nadal has pulled out of the tournament and heading straight to Melbourne, which of course means everyones odds shortens. Dimitrov is outright favourite at some books.

[rankslash]

Carreno-Busta is actually playing pretty decent today. Definitely his best performance since US Open.

[Jeff_Black]

Carreno-Busta is actually playing pretty decent today. Definitely his best performance since US Open.

Yeah he was too good today, an interesting matchup for a Djokovic playing his first match since Wimbledon.

Moneyline: Andrey Rublev @ 2.54 on Pinnacle - (-$100)
Total Games: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.961 on Pinnacle - (-$100)

YTD: 0 - 2 - 0 (-$200)

Ill have a think about todays games for a bit before sharing my picks for them.

[Jeff_Black]

Abu Dhabi Exhibition, Tennis Mubadala, Mens Singles, SF
Kevin Anderson vs Dominic Thiem
Moneyline: Dominic Thiem @ 2.08 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $108

Kevin Anderson goes into this matchup with a 6-0 H2H record with Thiem seemingly having issues breaking Anderson's serve. Anderson looked good in his opening win against Carreno Busta which saw the under total hit by the hook (unfortunately for me), but at this price I don't mind taking Thiem considering he's a better player then what he has showed in the past against Anderson.

Abu Dhabi Exhibition, Tennis Mubadala, Mens Singles, SF
Novak Djokovic vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut +3.5 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $93.40

Novak Djokovic plays his first (unofficial) match of the year after shutting down his season and I have to say that I underestimated Bautista a little all things said. 3.5 game head start is pretty generous considering he has troubled him in the past and I think with his form and it being Novak's first match of the year I think it's a good enough line to take even if he doesn't win.

[Jeff_Black]

Abu Dhabi Exhibition, Tennis Mubadala, Mens Singles, Playoffs (5th-6th place)
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Andrey Rublev
Moneyline: Andrey Rublev @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $102

Bit annoyed that this shortened since I initially checked but I think there is enough juice to back Rublev who was beaten by the better player in Bautista Agut. But he showed plenty of fight being down he dug deep to bring it back to 4-5 before succumbing to him 5-7 and 2-6 in an hour and 26 minutes. It was interesting to note in his press conference Carreno Busta said he was changing a few things, most notably his serve. So it'll be an interesting observation to see whether he improves on them as he admits he is still working on those aspects.

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut +3.5 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle - ($0)
Moneyline: Andrey Rublev @ 2.02 on Pinnacle - (+$102)
Moneyline: Dominic Thiem @ 2.08 on Pinnacle - (-$100)

YTD: 1 - 3 - 1 (-$198)

Abu Dhabi Exhibition, Tennis Mubadala, Mens Singles, SF
Andy Murray vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut -1.5 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $105

Unsurprisingly with all the media outlets reporting Murray's injury concerns and the fact he is supposed to play in Brisbane has Bautista a slight favourite, and with his form in these circumstances we'll take him to take this match seriously also against a former world no 1 and slam winner. Bautista hasn't proven much of a matchup for Murray head to head wise but these circumstances are a little different.

[gorwin068]

Roberto Bautista Agut looking pretty good
Murrary seems like got no business here

[JC1186]

Bet you didn't know it was only one set mate. Surprised me too. Good to see the handicap still get up.

[gorwin068]

wao...I didn't know it too, I thought Murrary retired after 1st set and I was upset that my bet on Roberto Bautista will be void, and then I suddenly found out that the bet is cashed

[Jeff_Black]

Bet you didn't know it was only one set mate. Surprised me too. Good to see the handicap still get up.

I did not gentlemen! Would have thought Murray came here to play two games even if he loses.

That said how shitty would you be if you did not know that, and he won it in a tiebreak

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut -1.5 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle - (+$105)

YTD: 2 - 3 - 1 (-$93)

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, Qualifiers
Mens Singles: Denis Kudla vs Jozef Kovalik
Handicap: Denis Kudla -2 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $95.20

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, Qualifiers
Mens Singles: Yannick Hanfmann vs Sam Groth
Handicap: Yannick Hanfmann -2 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $95.20

Sam Groth is retiring after the Australian Open, and he has basically given up on getting into the Singles Draw there to solely focus on doubles. It'll be interesting to see how he goes in lead up tournaments but I strongly doubt he will be going full throttle (In singles anyway) in risk of injuring himself again. Considering he is just coming back from injury and really wants to play in the Australian Open. Happy to back against him in that spot.

^On the schedule these start after the women qualifiers but not before 11am (Aus time)

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Hopman Cup Exhbition, Round Robin
USA vs Russia: Mens Singles
Jack Sock vs Karen Khachanov
Set Handicap: Jack Sock -1.5 sets @ 2.37 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 for a profit of $137

There has been quite a bit of fluctuation coming in for the underdog here but as inconsistent as Sock has been in the past I think there is a real opportunity and wake up call for him after taking advantage of a weaker draw in Paris to pick up 1000 points to get himself into some form before the Australian Open. I think he will have too much power for the young Karen and if his serve continues to be on song he will be hard to break. Americans traditionally have a good dig at the Hopman Cup having played here every year so I expect Sock to get the USA off to a good start.

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Yannick Hanfmann -2 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle - (+$95.20)

YTD: 3 - 3 - 1 (+$2.50)

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, Qualifiers
Mens Singles: Quentin Halys vs Michael Mmoh
Handicap: Michael Mmoh -1.5 @ 2.11 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $111

6-7 hours out and still no odds and lines up for Doha/Chennai Qualifiers

[Jeff_Black]

Set Handicap: Jack Sock -1.5 Sets @ 2.37 on Pinnacle - (-$100)


Serves me right

ATP Brisbane International 250, Brisbane International Presented by Suncorp, Qualifiers
Mens Singles: Alexander Bublik vs John Patrick Smith
Moneyline: Alexander Bublik @ 1.72 on Bet365
Stake: $100 to profit $72

YTD: 3 - 4 - 1 (-$97.50)

[jtoler]

Good luck.

[Jeff_Black]

Good luck.

Thank you

Handicap: Michael Mmoh -1.5 @ 2.11 on Pinnacle - (+$111)
Moneyline: Alexander Bublik @ 1.72 on Bet365 - (-$100)
Handicap: Denis Kudla -2 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle - (-$100)

YTD: 4 - 6 - 1 (-$186.50)

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Andreas Seppi vs Calvin Hemery
Handicap: Calvin Hemery +3.5 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $105

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Dustin Brown vs Aldin Setkic
Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $99

[Jeff_Black]

Hopman Cup Exhbition, Round Robin
Switzerland vs Japan: Mens Singles
Roger Federer vs Yuichi Sugita
Handicap: Yuichi Sugita +5.5 @ 2.16 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 for a profit of $116

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Qatar 250, Qatar ExxonMobil Open, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Vaklav Safranek vs Stefano Travagila
Handicap: Stefano Travagila -3.5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 for a profit of $90

[JC1186]

Dready strikes for the first time in the 2018 season, and somehow, he managed to do it in 2017.

Total tank job.

Did you catch Rog, mate? He is looking supreme. Those AO odds will start dropping me thinks.

[Jeff_Black]

Dready strikes for the first time in the 2018 season, and somehow, he managed to do it in 2017.

I sure did, and the score probably flatters Sugita a bit, Rog never looked like losing and I think Sugita's serving made the score (and my luck) a bit more respectable hah. The books have already caught on with the Djokovic withdrawing from Doha news. So the value is gonna stink now. At 4s 4.50 maybe a play. Now if there is any bookie offering 4s i'd be surprised.

[Jeff_Black]

Handicap: Calvin Hemery +3.5 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle - (-$100)
Total Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.99 on Pinnacle - (-$100)
Handicap: Yuichi Sugita +5.5 @ 2.16 on Pinnacle (+$116)
Handicap: Stefano Travagila -3.5 @ 1.90 on Pinnacle

YTD: 5 - 9 - 1 (-$370.50)

Abu Dhabi Exhibition, Tennis Mubadala, Mens Singles, Final
Kevin Anderson vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Moneyline: Roberto Bautista Agut @ 2.24 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $124

Good odds, thought they'd be a tad closer. Thiem wasn't that far off winning that tiebreak against Anderson in the first set and was better on both wings, Anderson used his reach to power some more winners but I feel if he lets as many second serves go by Bautista, he'll get punished for it cause I feel Bautista is a little quicker around the court, like many Spanish players are.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Pune 250, Tata Open Maharashtra, Mens Singles, Qualifiers
Thiago Moura Monteiro vs N. Sriram Baiaji
Total Score: Under 21 Games @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $93.40

[JC1186]

I have a question for you Jeff. Why $100 on every match? You've watched Bautista Agut and Anderson this week. Two players you know extremely well. You took the time to include a write up. It's a big match with a lot of prize money at stake. And I could go on.

Then staking the same on a mug 1st round qualifying match with Monteiro v Seieam Baiaji?

It doesn't make any sense to me. At all.

[rankslash]

Federer looked decent today. He is a solid fave for the Australian Open, especially with Murray, Djokovic, Nadal not 100 %.

[Honeybadger44]

I have a question for you Jeff. Why $100 on every match? You've watched Bautista Agut and Anderson this week. Two players you know extremely well. You took the time to include a write up. It's a big match with a lot of prize money at stake. And I could go on.

Then staking the same on a mug 1st round qualifying match with Monteiro v Seieam Baiaji?

It doesn't make any sense to me. At all.

I don't think that stakes should be higher/lower, depending on how big the tournament is. It should depend on the edge that you have vs the posted line. Using Kelly staking system is a good way to maximize your profits, if you know what your doing/can find real value.
But I don't mind flat staking system like the one Jeff is using. It gets some pressure off of a bettor and allows him to focus more in other areas. Also when you do live betting and every second matters, you can place your bets quicker.

Jeff, good luck with your bets in the new season! One of the best threads on this forum.
Friendly advice: Where I think you could improve is stop trying to find solution to every problem. You obviously have a great knowledge of this sport, but it is very important to pick your spots wisely. Cheers!

[JC1186]

I don't think that stakes should be higher/lower, depending on how big the tournament is.

Lol where did I say that?

But I don't mind flat staking system like the one Jeff is using. It gets some pressure off of a bettor and allows him to focus more in other areas.

Now this is what I disagree with.

Having popped my head in threads here from time to time, Jeff knows tennis incredibly well. Better than just about every other mug here. You can tell there is a genuinely passion for the sport and a thirst for always learning from his mistakes.
Which is why I think this rapid start of his to the new season seems, well, rushed. Almost as though he has been too eager for the new season.

He has a wealth of knowledge which allows him to be selective. Allows him to know when to stake more, and when to stake less.

He knows better than to have staked half of his bank or thereabouts already. Obviously mostly on players he hasn't even seen hit a ball this season.

You offered (always) great advice to "pick your spots wisely". That's the bread and butter right there. Which again brings me back to why I think for someone like Jeff, flat staking isn't optimal. That doesn't mean play 5+ units from time to time. You can still set a ceiling of say 3 units per play. Equally if you're playing $100 units and you've got a starting bank of 20u, the minimum bet perhaps really shouldn't be 1u.

Anyway Jeff probably has his reasons. I'm far from a troll attacking him because of a slightly rough start, and maybe that's obvious. Maybe it's not.

Onwards and upwards mate.

[Honeybadger44]

It's obvious that you are not the troll.

I touched on the staking systems, because of my experience with it. I remember that I struggled a bit when it came to deciding how many units to place on a wager. For example, I'd get a huge difference in my line vs the market line and then I'd start to doubt that my line is correct and then I also had to determine by how much is it off. Discipline is another super important factor. Staying true to your staking system and not increasing/decreasing your units depending on stuff like having winning/losing month, form, confidence...
In theory, something like kelly criterion is one of the best ways to maximaze the profits, but as I was saying, you really have to know what you are doing, to make it work. Having both capping and betting skills. Knowing industry and the linemakers. What they are trying to do and how they do it. Being able to predict how market will react. And on top of that be very disciplined and mentally tough. Imo, that is what is the difference between the elite bettors and those which are very good, but are lacking in some of the departments that I mentioned above and therfore struggle to make a breakthrough.

In the end, we all do our bussiness in many different ways and it is important to costumize the staking plan to fit what you are trying to do.

[JC1186]

Quality post Honeybadger. Tough in theory, 100x tougher in practice. Exactly why so few (including myself) aren't nearly as successful are perhaps we awe to be.

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks! Same here. But I'm trying to keep an open mind, work hard and looking to improve. And one day possibly get there.