[Lightning]

BET ONE - CROWNBET - TWO STAKES
ATP Montpellier
Paul Henri Mathieu +3 games - $1.92



BET TWO - SPORTSBET - ONE STAKE
ATP Montpellier
Felicano Lopez/Benoit Paire OVER 22.5 games - $1.73


BET THREE - CROWNBET - ONE STAKE
ATP Montpellier
Pierre Hughes Herbert +4 games - $1.88


BET FOUR - BET365 - ONE STAKE
ATP Sofia
Andreas Seppi to WIN - $1.83


As usual, if you want any particular play to be explained, please do ask.
I'm still undecided about a couple of Challenger San Francisco plays tomorrow morning, waiting for a few prices to be released.
Cheers!

[BroBuck23]

What's your take on the Herbert v Tsonga match?

[Lightning]

What's your take on the Herbert v Tsonga match?

Both guys are French, so it's not like Herbert won't get any support from the crowd. If anything, they'll be urging the underdog on. I think Tsonga will probably win, but in super fast conditions where the serve looks to dominate, I think a four game headstart is a lot for a guy with a really good serve and volley game.

[pistolpeat]

Thoughts on Seppi match? Darcis has been playing well. What's the edge?

[Lightning]

Thoughts on Seppi match? Darcis has been playing well. What's the edge?

I had Seppi as a $1.5-$1.7 favourite. $1.83 was overs, so I hit it.

[Lightning]

TENNIS 10-11/02

BET ONE - BET365 - ONE STAKE
ATP Quito
Bellucci -3.5 games - $1.83
Bellucci has a 9-1 record in this tournament over the years, and clearly loves playing here. The faster game conditions combined with clay courts is a combination that suits him well. He was really impressive in his first match against Tipsarevic, saving 4/5 break points, and winning 63% of second serve points. I place a lot of emphasis on the second serve won % because it's more of a gauge to how the player is actually rallying/playing without the first serve skewing the stats.
Olivo is a handy player, but is more suited to normal clay conditions. He saved 6/10 break points and converted 4/6, albeit against Giraldo, who has a much weaker serve than Tipsarevic. What lets him down, however, is his low 1st serve % (52) and 2nd serve won % (54).
Bellucci will get more free points on serve, with 0.75 aces per game, compared to Olivo's 0.28 aces per game. Bellucci has the points to defend, and is currently better defensively and offensively.

BET TWO AND THREE - ONE STAKE EACH
ATP Montpellier
Paire/Brown OVER 22.5 games - $1.73 (Sportsbet)
Paire to WIN - $1.72 (Pinnacle)
Every single bit of evidence points to this game going overs, but I still have a nagging feeling that Paire's going to win and cover his handicap.
Both men were sensational on serve in their last matches. Paire won 93% of his first serve points and 62% of his second, while sending down 1.27 aces per service game. He saved 1/2 break points but also generated 16 break points on his opponents' serve, winning 2 of them.
Brown won 88% of his first serve points and 67% of his second against Cilic. He converted 2/3 break points and didn't face one on his own serve. He also generated 0.8 aces per service game.
Paire generated so many chances that if he did that again, it would be hard to see him not winning in straights. Conversely, Brown hasn't been broken once in this tournament. I think Paire is playing slightly better when returning at the moment (and $1.72 is a HUGE price and definitely overs), but both men are serving at too high a level to not hit the game overs.

BET FOUR - UNIBET - TWO STAKES
ATP Sofia
David Goffin -3.5 games - $1.8
Darcis is currently playing well, but Goffin is on another level to him in terms of control and strokeplay. The Belgian could land the ball on a pin. I was expecting somewhere between -5.5 and -4.5, (I would've considered 4.5), so I'm absolutely happy to double down on the -3.5.
BET FIVE - PINNACLE - ONE STAKE
ATP Sofia

Martin Klizan -2.5 games - $2
This is nothing more than a brilliant line at a brilliant price. I had Klizan at -4.5 or -3.5, so like Goffin, I'm more than willing to hit a lower line.
Still debating whether or not to take Ruud/Vatutin OVER 22.5 in the Budapest Challenger also, or even Ruud to win.


Cheers!

[Lightning]

Please note that I tried about 14 times to edit this so it looked okay, but it still doesn't so I can't be bothered anymore ahaha

[Chaz22]

Lightning, glad to see you back.


Like your last picks except for Klizan. Why so confident on unstable / clay-court lover that Martin is ?

You think Basilashvili's wins over in-form Mannarino and top-10 ranked player of Thiem were a glitch? fortunate circumstance wins? has he - Basilashvili - not proved he can get far in ATP-250 level tournaments?

Just askin, no criticism.

[pistolpeat]

I would like to see brown win. But I think you're right

[gorwin068]

Bellucci was dominating the whole match 6-2 6-1, good call, cashed

[Lightning]

Lightning, glad to see you back.


Like your last picks except for Klizan. Why so confident on unstable / clay-court lover that Martin is ?

You think Basilashvili's wins over in-form Mannarino and top-10 ranked player of Thiem were a glitch? fortunate circumstance wins? has he - Basilashvili - not proved he can get far in ATP-250 level tournaments?

Just askin, no criticism.

Hey mate.

I don't think his performances were luck, but Klizan is all over a better player I feel, and that line was really good so I took it. Basilashvili can play at a great level, but there is a reason that he isn't ranked super high

[Lightning]

TENNIS 11-12/02

3-1-2 (two voided) last night. I'm in the process of doing the boring part of this job (bookkeeping) right now so hopefully I'll be able to give you an exact tally of how I'm going within a week or so. I've been a bit lazy on that front.

BET ONE - BET365 - ONE STAKE
Fed Cup Group I
Belinda Bencic to WIN - $2.1
These girls played in the Hopman Cup, where Mladenovic won 2-1. Bencic was hampered by a bit of an injury though. I still maintain that Bencic is the better player, and will be after revenge. Expect her to come out fired up in a home tie.


BET TWO and THREE - BET365 - ONE STAKE EACH
ATP Rotterdam Qualifiers
PH Herbert to WIN - $1.72
Herbert/Bemelmans OVER 22.5 games - $1.8
These two played late last year in an indoor challenger, and Herbert won in two tiebreaks. One thing I noticed about PHH is that he holds serve very easily against players that aren't very high in the rankings. His game is quite reliable in that way. Bemelmans is similar in that he's a lefty and is difficult to get away. Both players suit indoor hard courts, and I expect another game dominated by serve that the Frenchman edges.


BET FOUR - BET365 - ONE STAKE
ATP Rotterdam Qualifiers
Mikhail Youzhny to WIN - $1.5


BET FIVE - BET365 - ONE STAKE
San Francisco Challenger
Henri Laaksonen to WIN - $2.5

[Lightning]

TENNIS 12-13/02


BETS ONE and TWO
ATP Buenos Aires Qualifiers
A. Gianessi +3 games - $1.88 (PINNACLE) - TWO STAKES
A. GianessI to WIN - $2.1 (BET365) - ONE STAKE
Huge value in both these lines. I have Gianessi as a favourite in this matchup, so to get 3 games on him is HUGE, and why I'm putting three stakes on him altogether.



BET THREE - PINNACLE - ONE STAKE EACH
ATP Quito
Victor Estrella Burgos to WIN - $2.7
Victor Estrella Burgos +2.5 games - $2
Again, massive because VEB should 100% not be this much of an outsider in this match.



BET FOUR - BET365 - ONE STAKE
Fed Cup Group II
Ashleigh Barty to WIN - $2.5



BET FIVE - BET365 - ONE STAKE
WTA Doha Qualifiers
Lucy Davis to WIN - $1.55