[Chaz22]

ok, so here we go with last GS of the year!
(all plays from betdsi and all plays are 1 unit unless specified differently)

First couple of rounds are my favorite, so most of them picks will be placed during these next days....

Day 1

First couple of rounds are my favourite, so most of them picks will be placed during these next days....


Pella vs Fratangelo
Pick: over 38.5 @ 2.00


You might say that Fratangelo is in a better shape, form or whatever...Im saying Pella is more experienced, stronger and can play well on hard courts. So these aspects equal to a longer match. Dont think any of them will get a 3-0 victory and 39 games can be achieved in 4 sets.


Sock - Fritz
Pick: Fritz +4.5 @ 2.00


I do think Fritz has a shot of winning this as Sock has not performed well lately and will need to bring up his A game to destroy his opponent which I dont think will happen. Gonna be close but +4.5 games should be covered.


Bellucci - Kuznetsov
Pick: Bellucci ML @ 2.20


A potential 5-setter and it appears Russian should have an edge but he wasn't really impressive in Winston-Salem having those lucky withdrawals and Bellucci coming from the Olympic heorics might be a bit empty, but that was already some time ago so he should be ok.


Baker - Delbonis
Pick: Baker ML @ 2.20


Backing home player here and not believing in Delbonis ability to play good tennis on hard courts.


Monfils - Muller
Pick: Muller ML @ 4.15

It all realyy depends on how will La Monf step out and play. Im leaning towards him being passive and not giving much effort. Gilles will play his game as per usual.


Sela - Cuevas
Pick: Sela +5.5 @ 2.05

Im surprised seeing this line. Cuevas is a very good player but so is Sela. this should go at least 4 sets and spread should be covered.


and one Bonus pick from WTA:


Ostapenko - Kvitova
Pick: Ostapenko ML @ 3.25


2 times this year she has beaten Kvitova. How did this happen? Well, Ostapenko really, really enjoys playing against aggressive type of players with short rallies rather then defensive minded. So take Ostapenko and you will not fail.

I might add some more today depending on outcomes of other picks.

[Conqueror]

Wouldn't bet Fritz here. Certain players like to show off in grandslams and I think Sock will do so.
Ostapenko was on my upsets radar but Kvitova has played well lately. I'd be happy to learn she's now cured of the mononucleosis that plaqued her of recent.

[Lightning]

I like the Pella, Bellucci, Baker and Kvitova pick. Anything can happen in WTA, it's ridiculous.

I do think you're a bit mad taking Muller ahaha, Monfils has been destroying everybody lately. Muller always looks like he's about .4 seconds away from an unforced error, his movement is so awkward.

Fritz could go either way, don't really have an opinion on that.

I like Sela as well, but his serve is shit tier and someone like Cuevas will easily be able to take advantage. For me, that line is a toss up, and I"m not sure. Will be interesting though. I hope Dudi wins.

[Chaz22]

I like the Pella, Bellucci, Baker and Kvitova pick. Anything can happen in WTA, it's ridiculous.

I do think you're a bit mad taking Muller ahaha, Monfils has been destroying everybody lately. Muller always looks like he's about .4 seconds away from an unforced error, his movement is so awkward.

Fritz could go either way, don't really have an opinion on that.

I like Sela as well, but his serve is shit tier and someone like Cuevas will easily be able to take advantage. For me, that line is a toss up, and I"m not sure. Will be interesting though. I hope Dudi wins.

i agree to some extent that Muller pick is quite a risk, then again, Im quite sure at the end of Day 1 we will look back at results and notice couple of upsets as it always happen, so Im just picking this one as the upset of the day.

[Lightning]

i agree to some extent that Muller pick is quite a risk, then again, Im quite sure at the end of Day 1 we will look back at results and notice couple of upsets as it always happen, so Im just picking this one as the upset of the day.

Yeah, I don't disagree with you about the upsets, but I'm not sure that this is the match it will happen in. If anything, the Fritz game is more likely imo.

[Chaz22]

adding up one more play...

Stakhovsky - Elias
Pick: Elias ML @ 2.35

[Chaz22]

Yesterday we had...

biggest upsets


with out any doubt it was Gasquet's loss to Black Adder Edmund which of course no-one predicted. Odds were around 4.3 on edmund's win. Apart from that one could mention Isner's near exit but young Tiafoe couldnt hold his nerve....

reviewing my picks


well, in short, they were bad bad bad picks....i could defend myself in saying that some of them were very close (Elias, Baker and even Bellucci) but overall - just not good enough. f it wasnt for Fritz and Sela I would be very low today, but now we have a good chance to bounce back.

2W-6L
-3.96 units


what we learned from Day 1


as ir often happens favs do tend to win, even if it's a scramble so probably +Games is a better choice so definetly will look more into those than taking plain MLs.


it's just one match but...


Bautista-Agut and Sock are the ones that I think can be faded each and every round from now on. If you get Agut vs Pouille take the frenchy....and Sock vs Zverev take the + games


oh, yes and you can fade Paire anytime, but i doubt he will be a noticable favorite against Bag-man...


Harrison looking good (potential +game picke there against Milos).


Also Almagro to beat Cueavas looks a fine prospect...



Day 2


Plenty of games today, more cautious apporach this time, taking more +game or set handicaps.


Fabbiano +1.5 sets @ 2.00


2 qualifiers battling it out. As it very often happens these matches go the distance. so +1.5 sets does not look that bad.


Tipsarevic ML @ 4.25


i think Tipsy has finally undesrtood that he had to lower his ambitions and by winning that challenger in China he could get a boost.
And Querrey we all agree has been playing bad after Wimbly. Can he bounce back? maybe, but im taking the serb who has good record agains big Sam.


Dolgopolov ML @ 3.20


Ferrer is old, father time is calling...dologpolov in a bad form but so is Ferrer. going for a risk here as I dont think + 5.5 games give any advantage. If Ferrer wins he'll win big.


Mmoh +2.5 sets @ 2.16


this is more against Chardy who I dont see winning in straights anyone today.


D. Brands +6.5 games @ 2.01 vs Zverev


This is interesting. Zverev has not been himself lately. expect some difficulties. Brands has won him 2 times they have played.


Im also intereste din the following selections. But will make up my mind later.


Lu -Karlo - over 44


Mahut ML 2.33


Shwartzman +7.5


Estrella +1.5 sets @ 2.35


Berlocq 2.61


Monaco 2.20


Rosol +2.5 sets 3.86


C.Harrison +5.5 1.86


Verdasco ML 3.5 or +5.5 games


no-one knows what form Wawa is right now. Id say he'll be kicked out. this probably is the match of the day.

!!! Go on, let me know your thoughts on any of these matches !! and good luck to us all !!!

[JohnHanson]

"Also Almagro to beat Cueavas looks a fine prospect..."

Odds are very good ~ 2,4x. Cuevas yesterday had a medical timeout in the 5. set, had big problems with his forehand, but Sela was also injuried, so Cuevas managed the win. Must bet on Alamagro who played good in round 1. Bookie needed where one set is needed or one point. Cuevas really looked injuried.

Hard to back Tipsa imo. in a best of 5 vs. a player like Querrey, who peforming very well in Grand Slams and with the home court.

Mmoh are dangerous too imo. I dont like bet on players where lost any games in straight sets on the america tour vs. much "worser" player than Chardy.

Dolgopolov played very poor in the america tour. Lost 5 of 6 games and retired in the last game (15.08). I don't think he has any chance with this shape in a best of 5 vs. the fighter Ferrer. Ferrer also looked not that good the last games but I believe in him today. I have backed him @1,40.

I am on Lorenzi ml @1,5x. Berlocq are a farce on hard court, especially on the faster ones. Lorenzi can play solid tennis on hardcourt and should win this imo.

I really think Verdasco has a good chance to win, better than the odds says.

C. Harrison looks good imo. I think he can get the ml.

Rosol always a good pick with this high odds imo. for a set. Also to lay Murray in the first games.

Estrella with 36 years, hard imo. I believe Sousa will overpower him. Estrella looks very good in the first set/sets, but than he loses much power everytime.

Wouldnt bet Monaco, I think as underdog he never win a best of 5 game anymore in this life.

Schwartzman/Mahut/Lu/Brands/Fabbiano hard games imo. Dont have a tendenzy there.

gl for your bets.

[Chaz22]

Thanks for your thoughts John!

For couple of matches you were able to change my mind. Will not take Monaco and probably skip Berlocq unless I get some profit by that time which i doubt will happen.

Im still convinced that Estrella can get those 2 sets but you are right - he's old so its risky.
And Cody or whatever Harrisons younger brother name was, giving him ML is a lot although he seems to be on the roll at his level while Mathieu is struggling.
But + games seems to be the right choice.

and yes, more and more im looking towards Nando's ML

[pabonaparte]

Come on Nando!

[JohnHanson]

btw. I watched the odds for Rosol - Murray. over 3,5 sets, many bookies have 4 +. I grabbed this one @bet365 @4,50. In this life I think no way Rosol can win 3-0. I think this 3-0 "risk" are more profitable than the + 2,5.

[Chaz22]

btw. I watched the odds for Rosol - Murray. over 3,5 sets, many bookies have 4 +. I grabbed this one @bet365 @4,50. In this life I think no way Rosol can win 3-0. I think this 3-0 "risk" are more profitable than the + 2,5.

agreed, it's just that at my bookies I dont have such over 3.5 sets selection.

[Lightning]

Good luck mate!

Not sure about Mmoh, seems a bit like one that could go either way, and I do think that Ferrer will win, but other than that looks okay.

[Chaz22]

Good luck mate!

Not sure about Mmoh, seems a bit like one that could go either way, and I do think that Ferrer will win, but other than that looks okay.

Yes, will be interesting to see that Ferrer match as we have different opinions. No high hopes on Dolgo that's for sure but you never know....

[Chaz22]

added

Verdasco ML @ 3.60
Karlov-Lu over 43 @ 1.86

and

Mahut @ 2.09 @ pinny (one set must be completed)

[mrlif1]

like lu and dr ivo over 44 initially, 43 is a solid number. think ivo takes it as well. gl

[Chaz22]

As i thought kohlschreiber will retire if being in loosing position.

Adding

Shwartzman +7.5 @ 2.12
Estrella +1.5 sets @ 2.36

[Chaz22]

Also adding

Harrison ML @ 3.22 pinny

[pabonaparte]

Come on Nando!

Wawrinka serving incredibly well. Bollocks.

[Jeff_Black]

Nice win on Tipsarevic, never have trusted Querrey as a fav with a big line

[Chaz22]

look back at yesterday


biggest upsets


Day 2 produced more upsets than Day 1 and probably we all expected that but of course it was as always very tricky to figure out some of these.


Goffin (credit to Conqueror) wiht odds starting from 5.5
Tomic (again Conqueror saw this incredible pick) odds arpoudn 8.00


middle dog upsets - Tipsarevic and probably Zeballos.


Some scares for Thiem, Troicki and also Johnson who had to battle it out in 5th sets. Maybe it's a rusty start, maybe it's being tired we'll see, but 1st round 5 setters do mean that these players are not ready. So we'll keep an eye on them.


reviewing my picks




better than yestreday for sure, however, i am upset with picking young Harrison who was brutally killed by old french grandpa. I fell for low odds have to admit....the match showed that really the kid should be around 16+ odds not 3...and rankings prove that. Dont know what bookie saw in him but it sure fooled me. Yes, and I expected more form Estrella, was not lucky on Fabbiano, but had some luck with Brands.


6W-11L-1P
-2.71 units




what we learned from Day 2




that + game handicaps worked, + set handicaps not so much.
seeing how they played their first matches next early potential upsets in round 2 in this bracket are:


Tipsarevic vs Busta (think serb might grab one more win here as Busta might be tired)
Evans can beat A. Zverev.


not much more.


Day 3


Escobedo ML @ 3.75 ...Edmund !! you'll have to prove more than just playing one good match...


Darcis +5.5 @ 2.00....are you kidding me! ? no doubt that Isner is favorite here, but him struggling so much against Douf dont see how he could get an easy win. Darcis thugh have this tendencay to give up


Harrison +6.5 @ 2.05 .... i hope I dont get .ucked up by the Harrsion family twice. +6.5 games sure can happen.


Almagro ML @ 2.34 >> pinnacle...retirement alert for Cuevas same as Kohlschreiber yesterday.


Pella ML @ 2.65 - im sorry Youzhny...cant see you in 3rd round anymore. Pella looked more than fine in his first match.


Delbonis +7 @ 1.91 ...like i said i will bet against Agut every round now, but think he still can squeak in the 3rd. delbonis is such a gift for him.


Zverv ML @ 3.25 - same as Agut. here im more confident.


what about Vesely? Can he take a set of Djoker? 2.70 on +2.5 sets look tempting. Janowizc was able why not this freak....he won him this season. or Djoker just warming up?

some other picks i like but not picked up yet.

Paire 2.65 - i know i know frenchy is probably most unreliable tennis player in the world, but being as a dog he tends to give better results...

Ramos ML 2.25 - this is tricky , bu i will pick him if things go well.

[JohnHanson]

Escobedo benefits from Lacko retire. Lacko was the much better player with 2-1 and break lead. Edmund are a other level than Lacko, wouldnt bet that imo. I grabbed the ml around ~ 1,3x yesterday as a pusher on Edmund.

I am thinking too, to bet on Darcis. Isner looked not good vs. Tiafoe, Isner let him 15 breakpoints. 2 x 0-40, an some more times 15-40. But Darcis also struggeled in game one and played 4:15 in a hard game.

Harrison I am thinking too, but I am a bit scared from Raonic, where always plays with 100 % focus. Dont like to "fade" this players.

Youzhny looks strong this season, this guy scares me this year. But Pella defentily has a shoot imo. But to close for me to bet.

Agut looked tired vs. GG-Lopez and game was hard (3:32). I am looking for a bet too.

Zverev. M good value imo. but Zverev M. disappointed me often as underdog and I believe Sock can increase his game in Grand Slams. So I dodge it.

Looking for Vesely too. This year on clay Vesely won. But Vesely looked not that good in game one vs. the qualifier. And I am a bit scared Djoker want a revange. The last two sets was good from Djoker vs. Jerzy.

Paire always a good play as underdog and fade Baghdatis as fav. imo. But this two guys freaking me out ^^

Kuznetsov looked good in game 1 and can push his game in Grand Slams to a other level, I think he will wil vs. Ramos, who played not that good vs. Benneteau.

Totaly agree with Evans tommorow. This guy are in a very good shape. Zverev. A had much trouble vs. Brands, like the weeks before. Something is wrong with Zverev A. Playing not what he can now until some months. Evans @3,6x and + 5 @2,0x is a dream.

Also total agree with Alamagro. We wrote yesterday about it. Hope he nails it

Very much games where I have a stronger tendency but probably I dodge all, except Delbonis hc and ml small.

I personaly have today.

- Edmund ml @1,3x
- Pospisil - Anderson over 38 @1,92
- Alamagro ml @2,4x (best play)
- Pouille - Chiudinelli over 36 @1,95

Will adding Delbonis + 7 and ml.

Btw. gratz to the Tipsa bet, didnt excpeted he would win.

Thanks for your good thread and the much thoughts.

gl for your bets

[Chaz22]

Thanks again John,
you have good opinion in tennis...


probably I overracted on Escobedos chances, just think edmund's win was way too overrated and such wins so often come back at you in next rounds....but should have played over instead of ML.


i think Djokovic will be revengeful and that set for Vesely will be hard to get...so not taking it...


I also start liking the Pospisil's over...he did win 1st round fairly comfortable which was abit unexpected whil Anderson was broken couple of times...so one set could be realistic for Pospisil...

[JohnHanson]

Yes, agree. Pospisil served well in his first game vs. Kovalik. Kovalik had only two breakpoints and Anderson are not the best return player, so Popisil too. Anderson played also well vs. Nishioka, let him only two breakpoints too. But player like Nishioka with not good serve and not that hard ground strikes, Anderson likes very much, so I don't overrate this game. Anderson still not at 100 % shape and had some trouble games in the america tour, for example the lose vs. Jaziri, Opelka, Vesely, Wawrinka sweep (1-6, 3-6). In Wimbledon he lost 3-2 vs. Istomin, Nothingham vs. Johnson. Earlier are more examples that he doesn't like to play good servers and players where can hit the ball well in the ralleys.

I also like the h2h, even its from 2014 clay where Anderson won 7-5, 7-6. In this game Anderson had only two break chances and Pospisil zero.

Bookie hc set + 2,5 for Pospisil @1,63 brings me to bet the over, bookies counting with a set for Pospisil so me too and I really don't think we saw 6-1, 6-2 sets here, so we can steal some good value from the overline imo.

Yeah, was thinking a bit more about Vesely. He nearly played in first game 4 hours. Very dangerous that Djoker give Vesely in the second or third set a 6-1, 6-2 and killing the over or hc.

[Chaz22]

Ok, you convinced me. Ill take the over for the pospisil game.

So adding

Anderson/Pospisil over 38.5 @ 1.95

also i traditionally take one unreal parlay during the slams....and here is what I have....

Darcis ML x Vesely ML x Sevastova ML >> total odds around 398 for 0.2 units @ pinnacle

I know it's bold but not totally un-achievable.
I mean all favs here have some health or form issues, so I almost hope some retirements happen.

[w@lt]

also i traditionally take one unreal parlay during the slams....and here is what I have....

Darcis ML x Vesely ML x Sevastova ML >> total odds around 398 for 0.2 units @ pinnacle

I know it's bold but not totally un-achievable.
I mean all favs here have some health or form issues, so I almost hope some retirements happen.

Interesting. It does seem like all of these upsets are possible.

[Lightning]

My two cents...

I'm not sure you can say that Edmund has a hell of a lot more to prove haha... he beat Gasquet, and even a half fit Gasquet isn't a bad player. He's come on in leaps and bounds this year, not entirely sure why he's not ranked higher. Escobedo's not even in the same league. He might be able to stretch Edmund but it would definitely be an upset if he were to win.

Darcis is a funny one. I'm personally not touching the game, but if I were to take a position, I'd go with the +5.5 as well. It seems to me that the line is really about where it should be, and it's tough to find value in games like that. I think you'd be hoping that Darcis can grab a set, because if Isner wins in straights, I think he'll cover it.

I'm going for Pella because j'adore watching his lefty style and I love challenger players who make it on the atp circuit. I just think that the General might be a bridge too far. He played so well against Klizan (who's done well this year himself), and has the experience. Personally hope the Argentine wins through though so with you on this oen.

I reckon Zverev actually has a chance - not a massive fan of sock at all tbh. Awkward game though.

I actually took the opposite line on the Delbonis/Agut match - Agut -6.5. Agut is just the better player and looked pretty good in his first match. Good luck though!

Also, you'd be hoping that Cuevas is injured, because if he's not, I don't think Almagro has much of a chance ahaha.

Good luck mate!

[Chaz22]

Added Paire ML for 2.45

[Jeff_Black]

Man we got a bit fortunate on Pouille and Chinuielli overs with him nearly royally screwing up that third set being up a break and then being down a service game from the match. And then blowing a 6-2 lead in the tiebreak as well.
Pouille got pretty lucky in here his opponent couldnt close it out, his next match will be interesting...

[Chaz22]

biggest upsets


Just One but very big. It start with the name of Milos.


reviewing my picks


Despite a poor day, my only regret was Escobedo's ML (which actually turned out to be quite competetive match).
Darcis won a set but couldnt cover spread by a single game.
Very disappointing matches from Pospisil, Pella and Zverev.
8W-18L-1P
-7.52 units


what we learned from Day 3 and a look-ahead for the 3rd round


Favs turn it on in 2nd round. Will this pattern be the same in other half of the draw. Most likely, but I duo suspect there will be some tricky matches.
It was just a rusty start for Sock as he was totally different player in 2nd round. Could that mean Thiem and Troicki will also cruise through?
Harrison is still looking good and you can catch him winning Bag-man for a good 2.2 odds.

Day 4



Tipsarevic ML @ 3.00


It's a risk I admit. Both of them are on a 6 win streak and have won tournaments during it. So we'll see.


Khachanov +2.5 sets @ 3.05


Great Nishikori lost a set to old man Becker, it should be tougher against this promising Russian. IMO he'll take a set.


Granollers +2.5 sets @ 3.90


It's so tough to play against Andy these days. But he tends to have some problems in first couple of rounds.


Karlovic/Young over 43.5 @ 1.98


I just dont think Karlovic can win in straight sets in GS at this temperature. and Young is unstable as well. so 4 sets at least, pretty much same as with Lu.

Troicki -1.5 sets @ 2.30

Let's see if this will follow the same pattern ar Sock did.

Evans +1.5 sets @ 2.40


Like we discussed Evans can win it, but I will protect myself from that 5th set.

Sousa +1.5 sets @ 2.20


this is his best surface where to unleash that fighter/survivor mode Sousa has. Same as with Evans - protection from potential 5th set action.




Other prospects:


Fognini +1.5 sets 2.05


Kyrgios -7 @ 1.83


Berankis +2.5 sets @ 2.00


Del Po -5 @ 2.12

[JohnHanson]

Like it, except Fognini and Troicki. I am on Ferrer - 4,5 @1,95. Dont like statistic and h2h bets, but between these two the statistic are crazy. They played from 2009-2015 ten times (5 x clay, 4 x hardcourt, 1 x grass). Ferrer covered the hc 9 x and won 8 games in straight sets.

Yesterday I grabbed Donaldson @2,4x, now its @2,2x. Maybe now small value on Troicki. But this guy loses to many games in Grand Slams. I believe the crowd will push Donaldson to a other victory. With 19 years Donaldson has nerves of steel, dont think he will fall because of the pressure.

I am on Johnson ml @3,3x. I think in a hard best of 5 match Johnson has the edge. Small try, Johnson a guy who has a good or worse day. If he has a good day he can beat everyone, if he has a worse day the hc are a good bet imo. He had a worse day vs. Donskoy, hope he has a good vs. Del Potro.

Hard to lay Murray with this shape, dont believe in a set here. I think vs. Murray it needs a good serve and hard hitter to have a chance.

Khachanov nice odds, he defenitly has a shoot for a set vs. trolling Nishikori. Tipsa also has a shot, game 1 from Busta wasnt good. Sousa also showed a very strong game with good focus, bit underrated. Berankis I like too for this odds vs. not 100 % healthy Thiem.

Some short thoughts. gl

[pabonaparte]

I just dont think Karlovic can win in straight sets in GS at this temperature. and Young is unstable as well. so 4 sets at least, pretty much same as with Lu.

How reliable are weather reports, in your experience? Is there any point in waiting closer to game time rather than placing your wager overnight, just for the sake of being sure the weather is still what you think it is?

[Lightning]

Yeah, again some interesting picks. I would be very surprised if Murray dropped a set - he's amazing atm. Khachanov as well, you love a risky play haha. I agree with you about Tipsarevic, I just took the overs instead.

[Chaz22]

How reliable are weather reports, in your experience? Is there any point in waiting closer to game time rather than placing your wager overnight, just for the sake of being sure the weather is still what you think it is?

well, for sure better later place your wager if we look from weather perspective.
But then again, even if it is a bit cooler today I dont think Karlovic will feel that better about this. Best of 5 matches for 38+ year-olds are no gimmies Id say.

and it's still very early in NY ...9 am isnt it?

and it say its raining....so they wont play anyways...

[Chaz22]

i dunno about that Ferrer - Fognini matchup guys....

h2h to me does not mean much in this case...only once they played in GS and that was back in 2009 when Ferrer was a different Ferrer.

Nowadays, it's tough for him to be good in consecutive matches....

then again Fognini is such a not-giving-a-damn kind a baller that you cant expect anything from him. He can easily give you 1-6,1-6,2-6 match or can put some 5 set thriller with him coming out as a winner....

in 2016. SEP 1st.... I d say we are closer to 5 set thriller.

Since they will play later today, I will add my pick shortly before match starts....