Am going to do my futures in one thread from now on. Makes things easier.
We're at the Olympics! I have approximately zero interest in 95% of the other sports, but if there's tennis involved, I'm all over it.
MENS DOUBLES
I'm sure all of you know, but because it's the Olympics, you have to partner up with someone from the same country. That kind of throws things about a bit for a LOT of players, because it means they might have to go into partnerships that they've never really been in before.
It does, however, give an advantage to the guys that play together in normal tournaments throughout the year, or do so in Davis Cup. Some of the candidates include Herbert/Mahut, Murray/Murray, Fognini/Seppi, Nestor/Pospisil, Mergea/Tecau, Melo/Soares, Guccione/Peers, Stepanek/Rosol, Johnson/Sock and Cabal/Farah. To me, the semis this year will be:
SF1: Herbert/Mahut vs. Mergea/Tecau
SF2: Murray/Murray vs. Guccione/Peers
leading to a final between:
F: Herbert/Mahut vs. Murray/Murray.
I'd like to highlight Herbert/Mahut for a second though. I don't have to read you out their accomplishments this year, but I'll do it anyway. From Indian Wells onwards, they've won 29/31 matches. They won Indian Wells, Miami and ** back to back, lost in the semis and quarters at Madrid and Roland Garros respectively, but then went on to win Queens and Wimbledon. Safe to say they've been phenomenal, and the standout doubles pairing. Interesting also, the only two pairings to beat them in that run are not together for the Olympics.
They know each other very, very well from their time spent together. They have a semi-tough draw, but they'll be tough to beat. Up first, Cabal/Farah. They have a 2-0 h2h record (both in straight sets) over them (h2h is a slightly more reliable telling point in doubles than singles), and this should indicate how this match will go. They should play Johnson/Sock in the second round, but they don't play together that much, and M/H should run over them. The quarters will be their first big test, with Stepanek/Rosol being my pick to line up against them. The Czech lads are fiercly patriotic (as their recent Davis Cup tie suggested), and this might shape to be their toughest match of the tourney. After that is Tecau/Mergea, and then the final against (probably) Murray/Murray, who have a decent draw up until that point. IF they get that far, it would be fairly easy to hedge in the final.
- Herbert/Mahut to WIN GOLD IN DOUBLES - $6.5 (bet365) - TWO STAKES
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MENS SINGLES
I'm not going to go too far into analysis here, but I expect the main favourites to reach the semis, giving:
SF1: Novak vs. Nadal
SF2: Nishikori vs. Murray
Murray has a 6-1 record over Nishikori and said that leading the GB team out in the opening ceremony was '...the proudest moment of [his] career'. His performances in and attitude towards the Davis cup generally backs this nationalistic attitude up, so I'm confident in his motivation. No-one has been able to go toe-to-toe with Andy this year over five sets, and as such, I'm recommending
- Murray to REACH THE FINAL - $1.66 (bet365) - TEN STAKES
I think Nishikori is very good on hard, and with a decent draw, he should have few issues reaching the semis. There might be a few nervy moments if he plays Cilic, but his performances in Toronto and on hard this year make me feel confident he'll be presenting at his best level. Nishikori at his best is good enough to beat everyone except probably the top four in the world.
- Nishikori to WIN HIS QUARTER (QUARTER THREE) - $2.37 (bet365) - FIVE STAKES
Finally, I think Novak will definitely win the US, but if it comes down to it, is he really going to try in the Olympics? He's well known for not operating at 100% in the early rounds, and if a player comes along who is going full throttle because he's representing his country, there might be a chance of an upset. I like Novak as much as anyone, but I cannot justify a bet at $1.72.
For me, Nadal is overpriced. Yes, he is injury prone. Yes, he's been out of form this year. BUT, it's NADAL. He gives his all, every point of every game of every match. He will try, and try, and try. His motivation can never, ever be questioned, and that's an incredibly powerful assurance. This will mean everything to him, and I'm happy to put money on a player who is 100% giving his all.
- Nadal to WIN - $15 (Sportsbet) - ONE STAKE
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WOMENS SINGLES
The womens is always upset-riddled, so tend to tread lightly and be a bit more receptive to taking outsiders.
SF1: Williams vs. Muguruza
SF2: Keys vs. Stephens
Williams will more than likely win the medal, but she has a tough draw and there's no chance in hell I'm taking somewhere around $2.20 for her. I think Kvitova could actually beat her and make it to the semis, because she generally plays really well on the big stage.
- Kvitova to WIN QUARTER ONE - $7.5 (Sportsbet) - HALF STAKE
The second quarter will be a minefield. Muguruza at full strength will win through, but who knows whether that'll happen. It could be Bacsinszky, or even someone like Begu.
Keys SHOULD win the third, but Radwanska stands in her way and $4 is not enough for me to bite.
Finally, the last quarter is the most interesting to me. If Kerber plays her best tennis (which has been fantastic this year), she should win. BUT, this quarter is packed with stars, and one I'd like to highlight is Stephens. She won three tournaments (Auckland, Acapulco and Charleston), and then faded away after that. What I'd like to note though, is that she played at an OUTSTANDING level in those, and if she can bring anything near that to the Olympics, she is suddenly a major threat. She also has a 2-1 h2h record over that Kerber, if that means anything.
- Stephens to WIN THE QUARTER FOUR - $13 (bet365) - ONE STAKE
Alrighy, that's it. I love feedback, so if you agree/disagree, explain why down below. Nothing grinds my gears more, however, then when people say 'no chance', or 'not going to happen' to something that's been clearly explained, so if you do want to disagree, please explain why so we can actually have a discussion.
Cheers, and good luck!