1. #1
    frugalgambler
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    WTA clay-courting in Rome

    I feel like keeping throwing darts in Rome. This is the second big clay warmup tourney for RG. I gotta say it will be exciting to see Serena back in action. Halep might be waiting for her in the QF, that should be a glorious match. Aza will also be playing assuming her injury in Madrid is not serious. The conditions should also be closer to those expected @RG, namely the courts should be slower at sea level. So let's see how it goes. I think I will be very lucky to break-even this week.

    As for the program tomorrow, I cannot say I am excited by these matchups, but why not throw some darts anyways ?

    Ana -3.5 for 0.5u. Yeah, she has been flaky but she is going against Pav, who is not exactly a steady player herself. The surface should be more suitable for Ana and the h2h is pretty favorable. Ana will also have to defend a lot of points @RG.

    Begu o20 for 0.5u. Begu is pretty darn good on clay and Gasparyan is hitting her sophomore slump. But still, the total is quite low for a match involving Begu, and I think Gasparyan can stretch at least a set.

    Schiavone 1st set 0.3u@+180. Amazing to still see her playing at a high level. Just a long-shot for fun. Lucie might drop a set here against the wily veteran.

    GL dudes. Any input would be appreciated, as usual.
    Last edited by frugalgambler; 05-08-16 at 08:01 PM.

  2. #2
    Jinge
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    Like the Begu play. I think Petkovic has some value on her today. Keys current form is overrated and Pet is a decent claycourt player. Not many good results lately but she got tough first and second round draws. She always performs well on RG and since conditions are so similar she deserves a shot
    Last edited by Jinge; 05-09-16 at 04:18 AM.

  3. #3
    funnyb25
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    sock or pella?

  4. #4
    Jinge
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    Not worth a bet for me. Dont like backing Americans on clay, and I dont know Pella well enough but he did show a decent clay game this season.

  5. #5
    frugalgambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jinge View Post
    Like the Begu play. I think Petkovic has some value on her today. Keys current form is overrated and Pet is a decent claycourt player. Not many good results lately but she got tough first and second round draws. She always performs well on RG and since conditions are so similar she deserves a shot

    Yeah, I was thinking about Petko too, but I decided to back off. Did not want to throw too many darts. Keys is just so unpredictable, but I think you are right, Petko should win.

    But, here is one more dart. Errani -3 for 0.5u. Yeah she seems to have lost a step and some mojo since breaking up with Vinci; but still she loves Rome clay and I think she will prevail today. For some reason BM did not have that line when I first posted; probably b/c Watson won the qualies. Was also thinking about Svitolina, but see above.

    I see some matches already finished. Funny that I capped Perreira, Makarova and Friedsam matches perfectly in "my head". But this is worth jack sh.t b/c no darts were thrown; this probably means bad things for the darts I actually threw in this thread.

    GL dudes.

  6. #6
    funnyb25
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  7. #7
    frugalgambler
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    Congrats fella.

  8. #8
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by frugalgambler View Post
    Congrats fella.
    not yet...

  9. #9
    Jinge
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    Pathetic performance by Pet en Gas..

  10. #10
    frugalgambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jinge View Post
    Pathetic performance by Pet en Gas..
    I dunno if it was Petko being pathetic or Keys being in the zone. If Keys is hitting her shots, she is more or less unstoppable against non top-10 players.

  11. #11
    frugalgambler
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    1-3 with -0.9u. Back to normal.

    That was just laughable, both Errani and Gasparyan got bageled. Gasparyan lost 12 games in a row after getting a 3-0 lead, wtf ? And it looks like Errani has really lost her mojo, that dart was just a lot of wishful thinking. At least Ana saved the day a little bit.

    Lotsa matches tomorrow, but I see no lines I like right now. Gotta think a bit more if any darts will be flying tomorrow.

  12. #12
    Jeff_Black
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    From what I saw with Keys and Petkovic it was on Keys' racquet, when she got broken she was making UEs during those games but she was clearly overpowering Petkovic and forcing her to make errors on the wingspans. Petkovic's serve was also a bit off but I think the win was more Keys taking control over the game.

  13. #13
    frugalgambler
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    Thanks for the input, Jeff ! Did you watch any other WTA matches today ?

  14. #14
    Jeff_Black
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    Nah I just managed to catch that one at the time, I was watching a few games at once on my Ipad and flicking through them when it was on breaks so that one I saw mainly the second half of the first set when Keys held at 3-1, and up to about 4-1 in the second set when I saw Keys had it in the bag.

  15. #15
    frugalgambler
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    After looking at the card a bit closer, I did find a couple of matches I kinda liked.

    Garcia o21.5 for 0.5u/Garcia 1set @+115 for 0.3u. Kuzzy is obviously great on clay, but she has been pretty inconsistent lately. Garcia is also a bit of headcase, so this is a battle of two mentally fragile players. I think this one might go the distance. I liked how Garcia started vs Cibu @Madrid (not how she ended that match though, obviously).

    Niculescu o20.5 for 1u. Monica vs Mariana on clay, what's not to like for the over here ? The line is suspiciously low though so this might be a trap. Funny that they both lost to Chirico in Madrid with an identical scoreline of 7-5 6-1.

    And a few long-shots for fun for 0.2u each.

    Friedsam +1.5 sets @+210. Let's see if Serena is really ready. Friedsam already knows she can take a set off Serena, and on clay too.
    Perreira 1set @+275. Yeah, CSN is a beast on clay, but she occasionally drops a 1st set, and I am not sure if she is 100% healthy.
    Riske +205. Getting risky with Riske.
    Larsson -1.5 sets @+210. Battle of two Johannas, but this ain't no grass and I think Konta is hitting the wall right now.
    Last edited by frugalgambler; 05-10-16 at 01:53 AM.

  16. #16
    frugalgambler
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    Ugh, that was ugly -2.5u on the thread. Once again if a line looks too good, that usually means it's a trap. Niculescu is a queen of 3-setters and seeing o/u set at 20.5 against a capable player is a red flag. Anyways, I am gonna keep throwing those darts. All for 0.5u unless noted otherwise.

    Ana -3.5 for 1u. Gonna go with the experience and good h2h, although McHale can be dangerous.
    Petra -2. See above.
    Makarova o20.5. Muggz seems to be off this year, so I think she will not blow Makarova out, in fact I would be more afraid to see her lose 0-2.
    Kuzzy o21.5. A bit worried about Stosur playing a lot of tennis in Madrid and vs Riske. But I think Kuzzy will not blow her out.

    GL dudes. Any input would be appreciated as usual.

  17. #17
    frugalgambler
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    This is kinda funny. Another brutal day 0-4, -5.2u on the thread. I hope somebody is making a killing fading these picks. Anyhoo, no choice but to keep those darts flying, I thought about taking a break but I feel like seeing where this Italian journey takes me. Can I set a record for futility ?

    So here they are, for 0.5u each.

    Begu ML @-105. Begu has a hot hand right now.
    CSN ML @-105. I mean this is CSN in Rome, I am just hoping she is healthy enough to go the distance.
    Begu o21.5 @-105. Kasatkina is no slouch on clay either. Should be a tight match, I hope.
    Kuzzy o21. Another tight match I hope.
    McHale +1.5 sets @+210 for 0.3u. I did not think Serena looked that great in the 1st round. McHale has the game to bother Serena.

    GL dudes. Any input would be appreciated as usual, although I am an easy target for ridicule right now.
    Last edited by frugalgambler; 05-12-16 at 12:53 AM.

  18. #18
    frugalgambler
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    2-3 today. Fricking McHale had a SP against Serena but did not convert. -5.6u on the thread, but at least today was respectable. QFs tomorrow, right now liking

    Begu -4.5 @-105. I do not see why Begu does not keep on keeping on against Doi.
    Timea +4 @-105. Muggz has not exactly been consistent this year, I just hope Timea does give up if she gets down a set or something.

    I'll have to think a bit more on the other two matches. Keys have been clutch and she has just won 2-0 against BZS @Madrid. But BZS is also looking good right now and Keys is pretty unpredictable. Also, tempting to take Serena to avenge her recent loss to Kuzzy in Miami, I think. But Kuzzy likes to play Serena, she likes the challenge and the big stage. Serena might also eat some more catfood tonight so you never know.

    GL dudes.

    Oh and the above is for 0.5u each. Not gonna chase.
    Last edited by frugalgambler; 05-12-16 at 10:35 PM.

  19. #19
    gaebiskon
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    I like Timea/Begu bets though Begu is a pretty dodgy player.
    Serena didn't look good last night and the russian usually shows up for big matches so it will be an interesting match

  20. #20
    frugalgambler
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    1-1; what I was afraid of, happened: Basz fell apart after losing a set. Anyways, let's keep on going, darts for 0.5u each flying to:

    Begu +5.5; yeah it's Serena, but Begu has been playing tennis of her life last two weeks.
    Keys +4; I do not understand why Muggz is a fav here, let alone giving four games to Keys. This can go either way.

    GL dudes.

  21. #21
    frugalgambler
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    Meh, 1-1 today. Begu produced a pretty decent effort in the 1st set, but kinda gave up in the 2nd set. I dunno if she actually had a knee problem or used it as an excuse to stop trying, but in any case Serena covered. Begu's serve was her ultimate undoing. But I think with Keys it might be a different story. So here come the darts for 0.5u each.

    Keys +5 & 0.20.5.

    Bonus ATP pick: Murray ML @+200 for 0.3u. If Novak somehow wins tomorrow, he really is superhuman. But in any case, he will probably still lose RG this year.

    GL dudes.

  22. #22
    frugalgambler
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    Oh, and I am about -5.6u on the thread. Just in case somebody is crazy enough to tail.

  23. #23
    frugalgambler
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    Way to go Madison. Serena was just a little better on important points, but still a very entertaining match. Finally a winning day for me.

  24. #24
    frugalgambler
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    A pretty nice men's final, the MP was pretty awesome among many other great points.

    3-0 today. Still, -4.0u on the thread. Cannot be happier Rome is finished. Time for a break. I will probably do a thread on RG as well. Not sure how it will go there, though.

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