1. #1
    EaglesPhan36
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    EP36's Tennis Talk

    Well here we go, embarking on a long season of tennis. Don't proclaim to know shit from shit as I make most of my wagers based on form and gut instincts. Some will be good. Some bad and plenty ugly I'm sure. But let's focus on winning.


    1.17.10
    AUSTRALIAN OPEN: Serra +140 (Mayer)
    Melzer has never been great down under with three 3rd round appearances as his best efforts in 7 tries. He had a decent lead-up in form with a couple wins in Auckland, but also lost to a qualifier in Brisbane. Serra is no superstar, but he played Troicki and Monfils tough already this year. Serra also beat Melzer in the only career meeting last year in Brisbane. He's won his Aussie Opener every other year and this is the odd year where if form holds, he would win. Solid odds here as this seems more like a toss-up to me.

  2. #2
    iceminers26
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    Eagles,

    Good luck with your pick bud, I tried PM you as you stated in the first thread of A.O. Point Tourney Thread, but your inbox is full.

  3. #3
    Boner_18
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    Awesome to follow along here.

    One early pick I see is Clement. 1) awesome performance in Auckland. 2) two words - James Blake.

    I would hop on this one now as more and more will likely be fading blake tomorrow.

  4. #4
    EaglesPhan36
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    I wouldn't touch that one. Clement might be a hot upset pick by some because he made the Auckland final, but he's never beaten Blake in 7 tries and is utter shit at most majors in the last few years. Blake is on the downswing in his career perhaps, but he plays well here and looked decent in Brisbane. Clement might take a set or two if Blake is struggling, but end of the day JB wins in my opinion. Wouldn't waste money on either though.

  5. #5
    EaglesPhan36
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    Serra play pending as the match was pushed to today after the rain. Will definitely have at least one play tonight in addition to the pending one after I research today. Hope you guys made some early money.

  6. #6
    RobbReport
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    Blake has been playing good tennis in recent months.

  7. #7
    EaglesPhan36
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    1.18.10
    AUSTRALIAN OPEN: Malisse -110 (Almagro)
    This is one I like a lot tonight. Malisse got the hot hand in qualis in Melbourne, earning his way into the main draw. Conversely, Almagro played once in Auckland last week and got smacked by Marc Giquel 6-0, 6-3. Almagro has always been a better clay court player who some times gets a good draw/hot streak to advance a little farther in majors on hard courts than expected. That's not been the case mostly at the Australian Open where last year was Almagro's first to advance past the first round in 4 tries. Almagro was fortunate to get through the 1st round a year ago against Mahut who pushed him to 5 sets after Almagro coasted to a 2 sets-to-none lead. Malisse is one of those guys who can sneak up on you with a hot streak of his own and this could be an almost identical set-up to last year when he ran through qualis and then squashed a higher ranked player in Michael Llodra in the opening round. He's 5-8 all-time in the main draw here, so he has won in the past and is comfortable here. I think Almagro has superior talent, but he's always been a little lazy in the fitness category and tends to let his opponent stick around when maybe they shouldn't as a result. Malisse is often good for a win in these hard court majors and I like him to score a very mild upset.

    AUSTRALIAN OPEN: Harrison +800 (Tipsarevic)
    Bombs away on the American. Harrison is a 17-year old teen who may have a shot to be that next break-through star from the US that there hasn't been in quite some time. This is his first main draw at a Grand Slam after failing in qualifying at the US Open two years in a row. This is his shot to make a name for himself. The talent is there as he was one of the youngest players ever to win a main draw ATP match in 2008 at the age of 15! He's begun to add more power to his game as his body matures and that could be what he needs to make a splash. Tipsarevic is a streaky vet, but he has a history of struggling in the 1st round at the Australian Open. Four years in a row, his openers have gone to 5 sets. He did play well at Chennai in early January with wins over Moya, Devvarrman & de Bakker. Still, with his history of letting lesser players stick around in his openers here, I've got to take a shot at "the next big thing" in American tennis.

  8. #8
    ji03
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    We really need some good young Americans in tennis,m so I'll be sure to tune it this match in hopes Harrison can pull the upset.

  9. #9
    Boner_18
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    Speaking of lack of good Americans I think you have to take Rochus over Young tonight. Young had trouble in quallies in Channai and hasn't represented that he is ready to take a step forward here in a best of 5 sets match. Not that Rochus is a champion by any means. Just think that getting +130 for what appears to me is a coin flip is a good deal.

  10. #10
    ji03
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    I agree that Young has not progressed at all, but Rochus has a weak serve and it always worries me to back him, but I agree that +130 is a good deal for a 50/50 match.

  11. #11
    EaglesPhan36
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    Updated Record: 1-0 (+1.50)

    Serra wins a 5 setter, 6-3 in the decider to start off 2010 with a win.


  12. #12
    Kav
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    tailed you on the serra pick eagle, thanks for the win bro!

  13. #13
    EaglesPhan36
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    Well my bomb on Harrison is a bomb. He's playing like a teen making his first Australian Open appearance. Double faults. Unforced errors. Thought he might at least make it tough, but he's rolling over pretty easy.

  14. #14
    EaglesPhan36
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    Updated Record: 1-2 (-0.60)

    Figures of all the guys who choked 2 set leads yesterday, I got on the wrong end of one. Malisse loses 8-6 in the 5th to Almagro and Harrison got straighted out.

  15. #15
    SRBI
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    Good luck with your venture EP.

    Something I noticed today: If you had taken every single Serb/Croat ATP player in the previous round (was that the first?) you would have went 6-0. Cilic def. Santoro, Troicki def. Lapentti, Veic def. Koellerer, Tipsarevic def. Harrison, Dodig def. Ferrero, Djokovic def. Gimeno.

    Happens every-time

  16. #16
    MexicanStallion
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    Good luck pal

  17. #17
    hedgejob
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    Harrison +8 paid, thanks EP.

  18. #18
    EaglesPhan36
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    Wish I had that bet! I need to invest in 5 Dimes to get their totals. I've decided to pass today. Nothing really stands out. I like Serra on the men's side, but am a little concerned about him playing the day after a 5 setter. Also like Pennetta over Wickmayer, but again nothing with a real good edge to it. Golubev could be a good dog against Ljubicic at +160. Golubev isn't anything special, but he crushed Fish and Ljubicic is old. Probably this would be the play I would lean to most, but again just gonna sit and watch how things work out today.

  19. #19
    Boner_18
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    I played the over on Gobulev thinking he should be able to take a set from old man Ljubicic.

  20. #20
    EaglesPhan36
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    1.20.10
    AUSTRALIAN OPEN: David Ferrer +130 (Bagdhatis)
    Public is pounding Baghdatis in this one, riding his recent hot streak. Baghdatis has a rich history at the Australian Open, which makes him a big crowd favorite here. The Cypriot has a 19-5 all-time record at the event and has made the 4th round in 3 of his 6 trips here. That includes last year's Australian Open where he bowed out in four tough sets to Novak Djokovic. Ferrer meanwhile has been a steady player at this Grand Slam as well with a 14-7 record. Prior to last year's 3rd round exit to Marin Cilic, Ferrer had made the 4th round or better here in three straight years. Both these guys are looking to rebound in 2010 with Baghdatis coming back from injury and Ferrer from a year in which his form dropped him not just out of the Top 10, but out of the Top 20. It figures to be an entertaining clash with Baghdatis looking to use his big forehand and serve as his main weapons. Ferrer as per his usual form will try to run down every ball, make Baghdatis work for each point and try to force his opponent into making errors. Both guys are very competent in 5 set affairs and should this go the full five sets, it doesn't seem to favor either on paper as both have solid marks in the deciding 5th set with Baghdatis at 9-5 and Ferrer, 12-4. The key for Ferrer will be using his serve effectively. He does not possess the pop that Baghdatis has on his, so he needs to use placement and get in a high percentage on his 1st serve. Two lifetime match-ups between the two have both gone to Ferrer, winner in straights last year in Johannesburg and also in Cincinnati in 2006. The match last year was won by Ferrer based on the 2nd serve statistics where he made the Cypriot pay, winning 57% of the points. Whichever guy gets his second serve in more effectively here and makes less errors is likely to wind up as your winner. In a match where I think it is fairly even, the better odds on the pesky ferret-like defense of Ferrer is where I go in this one. The public has already pounded Baghdatis from -130 or so to -150, offering Ferrer now at +130. If it gets even higher before the match begins (7pm ET), it's definitely worth a shot.

    Full write-up here: http://eaglesphan36.mysbrforum.com/blog/

  21. #21
    EaglesPhan36
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    AUSTRALIAN OPEN: Nicolas Almagro -135 (Becker)
    Almagro had an almost identical first round match-up in 2010 as he did in 2009 in that he blew a 2 sets to none lead and then rallied for a 5th set victory. This time, working even harder to dispatch Xavier Malisse. Benjamin Becker won in straights in his opener facing Greg Zemilja who played all three sets tight, but could not come up with the big points. As evidenced, Becker had only five points more than his opponent for the match, winning 7-6, 7-5, 7-5. Both Almagro and Becker rely a lot on their serve, Becker did well on his first serve, taking 81% of the points, but just 42% on 2nd serve. Almagro meanwhile won 74% on 1st serve and 59% on 2nd. Almagro needs to improve his ability to break his opponent, netting just 3 of 13 opps vs. Malisse. Becker cashed 5 of 11 from Zemlja. The thing that gives Almagro the edge for me is his experience in Grand Slams. He is 23-21 in best of 5 matches, while Becker is just 8-12. Almagro has a streak of five straight Slams where he has made the 3rd round. Becker had his moment in the sun in 2006 with a run to the 4th round at the US Open, but otherwise has never advaced past the 2nd round of a Slam. Given Almagro bounced back from a 5 setter in 2009 to bounce his 2nd round opponent, it shows his mental strength to perservere. Becker has a good hard court game, but hasn't consistently stepped up when facing stiffer competition. Edge Almagro in what should be 4 fairly competitive sets I think.

  22. #22
    beefcake
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    Great write ups EP...

    Personally Im on Ferrer as well..

    GL!

  23. #23
    EaglesPhan36
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    Updated Record: 2-2 (+0.40)

    Almagro does things the hard way, blowing a 2-0 lead and then winning in the 5th again. I would say fade the guy in the 3rd round, but he faces Falla or Granollers. Ferrer pending. Pretty much expecting him to blow his 2-0 lead too.

  24. #24
    EaglesPhan36
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    Updated Record: 2-3 (-0.60)

    Shoulda, woulda, coulda had a 2-0 day if Ferrer didn't screw the pooch. Oh well, broke even. Looking at tomorrow, only a couple matches that will provide opportunities. Cilic-Wawrinka. Price is only about -130 for Cilic from what I see, would likely have been much higher if not for his struggles last round. Karlovic -140ish over Ljubicic looks okay. Research to do.

  25. #25
    Tsonga
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    good try - they both had a chance.

  26. #26
    EaglesPhan36
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    1.21.10
    Play #1: Parlay [Monfils/Jankovic]
    Risking 1 unit to win 1.82

    By themselves, I don't take favorites over -200. Together though, the pair of Gael Monfils & Jelena Jankovic look to be a solid shot to cash tonight. Monfils faces John Isner. The head-2-head is 2-1 in favor of Isner with the last meeting coming at Indian Wells last March. Isner won that won in 3. His serve as always was the big factor, winning 72% of his 2nd serve and 80% of his 1st serve points. Isner did also not offer up a break opportunity. Monfils big problem was his 2nd serve, netting only 47% of the points off of it. The big plus for me on Monfils here is fitness. Isner was gassed by the time he dispatched the Irishman Sorensen last round and that took three very tough sets to win. You could make a case that if Sorensen didn't take an injury timeout late, he might have pushed it to a 4th set and then who knows. Monfils meanwhile has made quick work of his first two opponents winning all six sets by identical scores of 6-4 over two qualifiers. Since his break-throu Grand Slam semifinal performance at the French in 2008, Monfils has made the 4th round of Slams in five straight. Isner's best was his 4th round appearance at the US Open last year. As long as Monfils can make Isner work and has success with his own serve, his fitness should be the deciding factor here. Jankovic is 9-0 vs. Bondarenko. She's beaten her on all surfaces and mostly dominated the matches. Jankovic has quietly been pretty solid thru 2 rounds as has Bondarenko. Jankovic's big match experience in Slams I think is an extra factor here as Bondarenko has never made it past round three here. Jankovic has made the 4th round or better in three straight tries in Melbourne. Her defensive game should be the factor again here to see her through.

    Also on the side, may throw Bartoli & Jankovic into a parlay. Those are the two best bets that I think are available tonight, but I don't like laying high chalk on a single match like -220 for Jankovic.

  27. #27
    EaglesPhan36
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    Updated Record: 2-4 (-1.60)

    Wow did Jankovic suck hardcore. Got one more play for people to fade tonight! Posting soon.


  28. #28
    beefcake
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Updated Record: 2-4 (-1.60)

    Wow did Jankovic suck hardcore. Got one more play for people to fade tonight! Posting soon.
    Hey man the match aint over yet...
    Its still 4-3 in the 2nd..have faith!

  29. #29
    EaglesPhan36
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    It's over. There's no reason to have false hope on a POS performance. She's not going to learn how to serve in one game.

  30. #30
    tltaylor89
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    Roddick looks good tonight

  31. #31
    EaglesPhan36
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    1.21.10
    AUSTRALIAN OPEN: Marin Cilic -130 (Wawrinka)
    It is a battle of the potentially spectacular against the always steady when Croatia's Marin Cilic takes on Switzerland's Stanislas Wawrinka in Round 3 of the Australian Open this evening. The two took very different paths in round two to get here. Cilic outlasted Australian teen Bernard Tomic in five grueling sets. Two two traded sets back and forth as Tomic took the opener in a tie break, then Cilic responded with a strong 6-3 win in the second set. Tomic would not falter though as he bounced back to go up two sets to one by winning the third, 6-4. Cilic then rose to the occassion to close out the Aussie with a 6-2, 6-4 finish in the final two sets. Cilic's serve popped out 25 aces, something that isn't always a steady part of his game. Cilic will need to improve his first serve against Wawrinka after only getting in 48% of his 1st serve. He won 76% of the points when he did and was solid on 2nd serve winning 57% of the points. The Croat was able to save 8 of 13 break opportunities and did a superb job in cashing in half of the 16 break opportunities he got off Tomic. Cilic has been on a roll in best of 5 matches since last year around this time, posting a 14-4 record. The youngster has also proven to be adept at winning crucial 5th sets at Grand Slams with a 5-2 mark in the deciding 5th set at Slams in his young career. Wawrinka comes into this one having not dropped a set in two matches in Melbourne. He easily outclassed Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 6-3,6-3,6-2 in the opener and then followed that with a 6-3,6-2,6-2 whipping of Igor Kunitsyn. Cilic broke through for the first time in five tries against Wawrinka in January at Chennai, beating the Swiss 7-6, 7-6. Wawrinka had previously beaten him at the French Open in 2008 in straight sets and in three smaller tournaments in 2007 and 2006 when Cilic was only 17. Despite being the younger of the two, Cilic has already made the 4th round twice at the Australian Open, while Wawrinka has made the 3rd two of the last three years, but never progressed beyond that round. At all Slams, Wawrinka has made just three 4th round appearances in 23 tries. Cilic already has four 4th round appearances and last year's quarterfinal showing at the US Open in just 13 tries at Slams. The talent gap is there with Cilic being the one who has the weaponry to perhaps take a leap into the Top 10, while Wawrinka is a solid player, but does not wow you with anything he does. The price of this one reflects some of the very small ranking difference between the two, but I think more of a little over-reaction to the 2nd round match between Cilic and Tomic. Tomic was a crowd favorite, a very successful juniors player with several "Slam" titles plus he had the experience of winning a match at the Australian Open in 2009. So it might have been a little shocking to some that he pushed Cilic, but the kid has talent. Tonight, I think this match is on the racket of Cilic to win or lose. Cilic will need to be very solid on his serve and use it as a weapon, which he sometimes fails to do. I think as with the match in Chennai, Cilic's return game may be a deciding point. He won 38% of the points off the Swiss' serve that day compared with just 27% for Wawrinka off the Cilic 1st serve. Wawrinka will get plenty of action for the price due to Cilic's lackluster play at-times against Tomic, but this match should be much more to Cilic's liking. No home court advantage for his opponent and an opponent he is familiar with plus the added confidence of beating him just a few weeks ago. Some big pluses over what he faced in Round 2. Very important for Cilic to get off to a solid start in the 1st set and win it as it would play on his mind to lose early and start thinking about the potential of being on the court for four hours plus again.

  32. #32
    beefcake
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    Go CILIC!!!

  33. #33
    EaglesPhan36
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    Updated Record: 3-4 (-0.60)

    Cilic came through for me. I should continue to make two bets, you boys could make a killing off me as 1-1 is pretty standard now. If I win one, fade the next!

  34. #34
    MexicanStallion
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    Congrats on the nice winner.

  35. #35
    beefcake
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    Nice winner!,now if only cilic can man up and beat a unimpressive del potro..

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