[Semper Fidelis]

Thinking about loading up on Nadal for this one fellas. Not 100% sure if Nadal's impressive win the other day was more the result of great tennis on his part, or more just very bad play from Wawa. Nadal is a very elite returner, but I think it's safe to say we didn't expect him to have as much success as he did against Wawa's serve. (On a side note I definitely think Wawa shows up tomorrow against Ferrer with a much better service game which will secure a win for him)

Of course Murray's serve is no joke either, but I get the feeling that his attention is slowly turning more towards the Davis Cup next weekend. We all know he's already mentioned this himself in pre-interviews, being more focused on representing his country. I took him against Ferrer to win in straights, but the whole match I remember thinking it could've been much closer if Ferrer had only a little more success on his first serve. I really think Nadal will be much harder to crack and will eventually wear Murray down. I also think Murray honestly knows he really has no chance of winning this Tour Finals, which is why he has mentioned the Davis Cup so much.

Not to mention Nadal is certainly playing much better lately than just a few months ago when he was losing to nearly everyone he should typically beat. After a sub-par (dare I say forgetful) season in which the King of Clay gave up even his French title, Nadal is going all out for this tourney and honestly believes he has a shot at winning. I too think he has a fighter's chance, certainly worthy of a small play at current odds of +1400. Don't like his chances near as much as Federer (honestly think this is Fed's tourney to lose), but I just get the feeling after an empty GS season he is out to prove something, and what better way than against the best players in the world?

Anyway all of this to say I really like his chances tomorrow against a Murray with a questionable mindset right now, especially as a dog at +150 and higher across the books. Also considering taking him in straights, or maybe 2-1 sets. Very interested in what everyone's thoughts are on this match. I find this one much more intriguing than Wawa/Ferrer (perhaps because I feel that other match is more decisive in favor of Wawa).

What do you all think? The Over looks decent as well, but afraid if Nadal wins the 1st set easily then Murray will tank and lose the 2nd one as well.

[frugalgambler]

I am cautiously liking Nadal in this spot: doing well in London is the only way he will feel good over Christmas. Murray has bigger fish to fry next week and historically he is not so great against Nadal. But I am not "loading" on this, just a regular play.

[Conqueror]

1) Nadal would be my lean here but not touching this game.
2) You're right in your assertion that this is Federer's tournament to lose.

[frugalgambler]

Federer will not beat Djoker twice. The only way he wins this is if Wawa beats Djoker in the semis.

[Jeff_Black]

Was thinking the same thing after I saw Federer beat djoker today.
And I hope the odds are closer in the final

[Ted Sheckler]

Going with Murray.
I think if Wawrinka could of composed himself just a little bit, he could of gotten past Nadal.

If wawrinka ships it in again, against ferrer, then I like the chances that ferrer beats nadal as well and we see ferrer/murray move on.

[BennyBigNuts]

Going with Murray.
I think if Wawrinka could of composed himself just a little bit, he could of gotten past Nadal.

If wawrinka ships it in again, against ferrer, then I like the chances that ferrer beats nadal as well and we see ferrer/murray move on.

I watch as many Stan matches as anyone and I cap his matches pretty well.
I think Ferrer may get an easy pass here. Stan could concede early, and Ferrer will always try his hardest.
+135 was too good to pass up today. I love Stan, but IMO the worst part of his game is his lack of heart on a weekly basis.
I don't see him motivated or giving a shit in this tournament after losing to someone who wasn't joker or feds.
Out of these 2 matches today, Ferrer is definitely the best play IMO.

As for Murray, anyone who thinks he's thinking about next week Davis cup is a moron.
You get 2.2 million dollars for going undefeated this week (half that if you win it and lose a match during the week). Until he loses a match, you will get his best effort/tennis.
Right now, Nadal would have to play his best tennis and Murray would have to play at his worst for Nadal to win.
And for those mentioning Nadal's ownage over Murray for their careers, they are like 6-6 vs each other on the hard courts I believe.

Murray in straight sets over My boy Nadal (although I will be rooting for Nadal with no action on the match). And I fukkin hate Murray more than anyone on this planet.

[frugalgambler]

Benny you are the moron. Money does not as much to these guys as it does to you. Murray wants the Davis Cup a lot more than this tournament. In the long run, he will also make more money off endorsements if he wins the Davis Cup compared to this paycheck in London.

[frugalgambler]

Looks like Murray is basically hitting the ball out on purpose in the 2nd set. Will be interesting to see how he plays against Wawa, especially if Wawa wins today.

[jjgold]

Murray such a little bitch

He was never the same when Lendl left

A solid top 6 player but zero threat

[Ted Sheckler]

Just like Wawrinka, breaks the first game of match easily, then straight downhill.

[frugalgambler]

Breaks do not mean as much for these guys, these are not great servers. It's almost like a WTA tactic for these guys: serve is a means to put the ball in play.

[frugalgambler]

Good thread. No idiotic statements, like "Nadal is a lock", just a reasonable discussion.

[Ted Sheckler]

Breaks do not mean as much for these guys, these are not great servers. It's almost like a WTA tactic for these guys: serve is a means to put the ball in play.

Thanks, I get it now.

Nice call on Nadal semper.

[MGTennisTipster]

They are good servers however they are even better returners. The courts are also quite slow which makes it easier to return. But don't underrate their ability to hold serve, despite not firing big bombs they can protect very well that serve. But once things are not working (like yesterday with Novak) they don't have that special ability to win easy points with serve like the big servers.

[Semper Fidelis]

Thanks for the props guys, and congrats to any who talked!

Glad it ended up being a straightforward win in straights - though I won a decent amount on this match (not only the huge ML and spread plays, but also used the 2-0 set prop to close a couple high-paying parlays), I realize I may have placed a little too much on one match! Between all the various singles and parlays I had on this match I could've seen a major negative swing in my BR (or at least lost potential profits). Even though it played out how I expected I realize now I was lucky to win so much - next time I'll certainly be more conservative, no matter how strongly I feel about a play! Having been in this sports 'business' for nearly 15 years now I know the single most important factor to a sports investor's success is proper discipline of BR management!

Anyway the thing I love the most about this sub forum is the amazing group of guys we have here. We tennis folk seem to be more refined, like some have mentioned earlier we almost always have sound, reasonable, intellectual discussions about the matches. No 'My Dick is Bigger than Yours' lock threads or any other BS you see in the other forums. Just wanted to mention that real quick and thank everyone for their contributions and analysis with everything! Let's keep this forum going strong, working together to help line each other's pockets with more profits!