1. #1
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    ATP Shanghai Masters 1000 plays

    Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Tommy Robredo
    Handicap: Jo Wilfried Tsonga -3.5 @ 1.83 William Hill
    Stake: 1u play

    Ivo Karlovic vs Jeremy Chardy
    Total Games: Under 26.0 @ 1.75 on William Hill
    Stake: 1u play

    Steve Johnson vs Andreas Seppi
    Money Line: Steve Johnson @ 1.90 on William Hill
    Stake: 1u play

  2. #2
    GoBlue77
    GoBlue77's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-20-11
    Posts: 9,166
    Betpoints: 19052

    no telling where these dudes heads are at. best to wait a round or 2

  3. #3
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Yeah taking it slow today. Wouldn't mind taking the points with the dogs playing at home otherwise.

  4. #4
    Pikachu
    Pikachu's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-23-13
    Posts: 728
    Betpoints: 4851

    What's wrong with Young? He played so well against Cilic. Now all of sudden, he plays this bad? Never seen over -200 favorite play so terrible.

  5. #5
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    His serving was a bit off in that game. Double faulted on Cilics set point and when he was up 5-3, bizarre meltdown

    Seppi blew a match point and Ivo was down a mini break in the tiebreaker, got a bit lucky there heh

  6. #6
    Geoff_Saari
    Geoff_Saari's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-30-14
    Posts: 166
    Betpoints: 1868

    Wasnt Seppi up 5-1 in the 3rd set? LOL

  7. #7
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    One break yeah would have been 5-2 I reckon
    Italian dodgy fixer? Lol

  8. #8
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Great start to the first day, onto the second

    Richard Gasquet vs Gilles Muller
    Handicap: Richard Gasquet -2.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
    1u play

    Pablo Cuevas vs Viktor Troicki
    Moneyline: Viktor Troicki @ 1.726 on Pinnacle
    1u play

    Tommy Haas vs Kevin Anderson
    Total Score: Under 22.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
    1u play

  9. #9
    VtecMouse
    VtecMouse's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-19-15
    Posts: 32
    Betpoints: 966

    Nice plays this morning, you killed it !!

  10. #10
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Thanks! got a bit fortunate that Troicki fought back but think if he was good enough to beat Raoshit then he was good in this spot too. Other two were a bit more straight forward.

    Novak Djokovic vs Martin Klizan
    Handicap: Martin Klizan +7.0 @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
    1u play

    Dominic Thiem vs Feliciano Lopez
    Moneyline: Dominic Thiem @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
    1u play

    Bernard Tomic vs David Ferrer
    Total Score: Under 22.0 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
    1u play

    Viktor Troicki vs Stan Wawrinka
    Total Score: Over 21.5 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
    1u play

  11. #11
    rc86
    rc86's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-21-13
    Posts: 248
    Betpoints: 1524

    nice run man...you thinking ferrer wins?

  12. #12
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Thanks.
    Yeah I would expect Ferrer to win with the way he has been going. Not that Bernie has been awful but Ferrer plays with a lot more margin for error then Verdasco and I expect it to be more difficult with a guy who plays with less UE.

  13. #13
    rc86
    rc86's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-21-13
    Posts: 248
    Betpoints: 1524

    right on...thanks for the tip and BOL on your plays

  14. #14
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Well I certainly didn't expect the likely under to pan out the way it did

  15. #15
    Nysut
    Nysut's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-23-15
    Posts: 35
    Betpoints: 252

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_Black View Post
    Well I certainly didn't expect the likely under to pan out the way it did
    David Ferrer Did not brig it here.

  16. #16
    habitualwinning
    habitualwinning's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-12
    Posts: 1,569
    Betpoints: 6311

    What's your theory on why Klizan will keep it close with Nole? Djoker has been blowing everyone out recently so do you think he's just due for a letdown or is there something in Klizan's game that will giver Nole trouble? You seem like you know your tennis, solid picks so far. In my opinion, tennis is the most unpredictable sport and thus one of the hardest to handicap, so anyone who picks a majority of winners is worth discussing the sport with, that's why I'm asking. Thanks and bol.

  17. #17
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Fair question. Rog last night stated in his press conference how Shanghai was more difficult to adjust to the conditions because it is more windier and more faster surface then the slower hardcourts (and IMO Beijing and Toyko) which is why he was slow against Mayerlast year and Ramos last night even though he hadn't played in a while.
    But then you see guys like Kei, Fed, Ferrer, Berdych atm etc struggling and think 7 is massive considering.
    That said Novaks form at Beijing was ridiculously good and while he didn't allow more then four games per match I'm taking the points with a seasoned player who hasn't been too bad on the second serve recently. And who has taken a set against Novak.
    Novaks early rounds last year weren't exactly a walk in the park and IMO Klizan has been good enough to grab five games.
    Last edited by Jeff_Black; 10-14-15 at 04:37 AM.

  18. #18
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Also cheers for the kind words but I must be picking better games or something? Lol
    I started 0-3 at the U.S. open before picking it up but if you see the thread I took a lot of dogs on the lines which paid off.

  19. #19
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Djoker too good today, Klizan couldn't get it done on the deuce games

  20. #20
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    And Troicki saves five break points to nudge the total on the over

  21. #21
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    John Isner vs Andy Murray
    Total Score: Over 23.5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Gilles Simon vs Tomas Berdych
    Handicap: Gilles Simon +2.0 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Richard Gasquet vs Bernard Tomic
    Handicap: Richard Gasquet -3.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

  22. #22
    Goat Milk
    Goat Milk's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-24-10
    Posts: 25,838
    Betpoints: 10176

    Simon will have trouble with berdych imo. BOL.

  23. #23
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Yup, Simon was pretty pathetic today, ah well

  24. #24
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Kevin Anderson vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
    Moneyline: Jo Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.751 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1.5u play

    Andy Murray vs Tomas Berdych
    Handicap: Andy Murray -3 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

    Rafael Nadal vs Stan Wawrinka
    Moneyline: Rafael Nadal @ 1.787 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 1u play

  25. #25
    Goat Milk
    Goat Milk's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-24-10
    Posts: 25,838
    Betpoints: 10176

    Murray and Rafa plays look good. I have no clue on the Anderson Tsonga match. any reasoning for that?

  26. #26
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Nadal/Stan odds movement is like a pendulum today heh, but I'll take Nadal.

    As for Tsonga normally I like to fade those who have upset one of the top players but with a superior serve to Nishikori I'll take Tsonga at the better odds here. Usually he would should be 1.50s
    Ando is still just really a big serve and today proved that again.

  27. #27
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Rafael Nada vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
    Handicap: Rafael Nadal -3 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 2u play

    Can't make up my mind on the other game. So just gonna leave it

  28. #28
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Epic choke from Nadal there at the end, well done champ

  29. #29
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Novak Djokovic vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
    Handicap: Novak Djokovic -5.5 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
    Stake: 3u play

  30. #30
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    13 - 5, +7.732u

    good week

  31. #31
    au222
    au222's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-05-15
    Posts: 11
    Betpoints: 600

    Thanks Jeff for posting your tennis picks. I just came across this forum and I appreciate getting feedback from others on tennis handicapping. I was just curious, do you only cap the ATP Masters 1000's and the Grand Slams? I haven't come across any posts from the WTA and or the 500 or 250 series's.... Anyways, I hope you keep posting when you get a chance because we do appreciate it. Thanks again and good luck the rest of the year and beyond.

  32. #32
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Thanks champ. I am on and off (as a new poster this year) but I plan to be more hands on for the bigger events.
    Yes I usually do Grand Slams and Masters without question. Then from there I pick and choose which weeks I want to have a go at tennis. Haven't really done it this week, been following things lightly like I do even though Im not betting on it.
    But I don't mind doing 500/250 events for sure. Some weeks are just full of no names and it's better leaving them IMO.
    Moscow is way too unpredictable and there are probably fix jobs going on there with all these Russian underdogs winning.
    The others have been good to follow this week and there are some good insights on other threads if you're looking to follow them.

    As for women, would just rather stay away from it all together personally from a betting perspective myself haha. Just too unpredictable

Top