Hi guys - In this thread I would like you to post your predicted first round winners.
I will give you two picks for the first round.
Sousa [46] - Berankis [78]
Bookmakers has made this match pretty even on the odds but I am sure that this match has a favourite.
I have seen Sousa play a few matches and I can tell you, this guy is shite - pure shite. In addition to this Sousa is much more a clay cout type of player and his record on hard this year (4/8) also shows that he sucks on this surface.
Berankis is a decent hardcourt player and his record on hard this year says 11/8 which is pretty good concidering
the fact that he has beaten Lu, Johnson and Gabashvili on this surface. (the 5 of his losses has been against Isner, Goffin, Dolgopolov and Anderson - all guys you cant expect him to beat). Berankis is a former junior nr 1 and US Open winner which also tells me that he has some talent on this surface.
Berankis will win this match at odds 1.85
Gabashvili [53] - Andujar-Alba [48]
Russian Gabashvili has really played some interesting tennis on hardcourt this season, and even beating Murray on hard court less than 4 weeks ago. This guy really has balls and a good serve, he doesn't make many unforced errors which is good, obviously . This year he is 16/9 on hard and one of these wins were against his opponent from Miami first round 2015 where the russian won 2-1. In total Gabashvili leads 3-0 between the two but the first two meetings were in 2008 so this doesnt really affects my choise..
Andujar-Alba is a good player, but - only on clay. On clay he can pretty much anyone outside top 20 - but on hardcourt he is really bad, this season he is 2/10 on hard. For instance he has lost 2-0 to Klec on hard this year (world nr 184). Andujar-Alba is 4/6 on his last 10 while Gabashvili is 7/3 which shows he is in much better form.
Gabashvili will win this match at odds 1.52
Please post some of your picks for monday to inspire me and other SBR users.
- Good luck to anyone who follows my picks (im 5 won 1 lost on my picks on SBR before these two)
Not much analysis needed for this one. Cecchinato is a clay court specialist and he is really good on clay at challenger level, but at ATP level he sucks and on hardcourt he is not capable of winning at all.
Mardy Fish will win this match no doubt, probably in 3 sets but i am going for the more safe bet simply saying he will win at odds 1.20.
I will parlay this match with Berankis and Gabashvili for a total of odds 3.33 for this triple.
i don't like these selections, especially parlaying them.
Both of these matches underdogs have decent chance of winning. Berankis has to serve really good as he is not so good in rallies as Sousa is. Gabashvili is a favorite I agree, but I see almost no value in these odds, as he's opponent is just about at the same level on hard courts so again - coin toss.
Still BOL.
Yeah, and I wouldn't bet on Fish in these best-of-5 matches. He did look ok in Cincy, but to play him on 1.2 is again - too risky.
Chaz22 talked me away from Mardy Fish and convinced me that there was no value on him at 1.20 so i parlayed Berankis and Gabashvili at odds 2.81 - so far I am happy with that. Berankis leading 2-0 in sets though behind with a break in the third..
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. This year he is 16/9 on hard and one of these wins were against his opponent from Miami first round 2015 where the russian won 2-1. In total Gabashvili leads 3-0 between the two but the first two meetings were in 2008 so this doesnt really affects my choise..
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Originally Posted by BIG
