[beefcake]

Sitting up late drinking my coffee...And i had an idea...

How bout backtesting something...

How bout seeing what the record would have been last year of Home Country Wild Cards and QF that played UNSEEDED players,ether ATS or maybe SU..


In browsing the ATP website I noticed that in alot of these tourneys as long as the WC werent playing the top players,they did pretty well.I would think the juice on them wouldnt be that high SU,and in my backtesting of the qualies sometimes those home guys did pretty well as well as long as they didnt play the big dogs..


Added advantage of having the home crowd cheering for you has to count for something in tennis.

Spread records are available for 2009 at oddsportal.com with SU records available at a certain site going back to 2001..

[Boner_18]

Time to get odds scraping! I doubt there is a significant trend. While I do think home court advantage is a + factor I feel it is adequately represented in the lines. Also, don't you think more local betters would be placing homer bets on the WCs? Maybe that is assuming to much liquidity in tennis betting... Interesting.

[beefcake]

Maybe so boner,youre right in that the home dog is taken into consideration im sure,but local boy comes home angle might have some value,and ive watched enough tennis to know to say that if local Stiff(WC) is playing a top tier player,sometimes the top tier player just wants to get the win and not give the beat down and maybe,just maybe will mentally pull up a bit..

ive actually check through HALLE germany in 2009..and so far here asre the stats...

home qf and wildcards spread record vs seeded players.... 28-26...no advantage there with the juice...

Home and wildcards records vs unseeded players.....47-28...This IS interesting...

[Boner_18]

Yeah that second stat could be profitable. Any idea if WC's are overwhelmingly dogs when playing a lower ranked but unseeded player? Or can they be faves at a decent clip?

[beefcake]

Sorry meant to say that the record's is home QF and WC's.I kinda went through it fast so i might have missed a a small few,when one the match did not have a spread,i counted the the decison straight up.and then 2 home wc's or qf or combo played each other inthe first round,i didnt count it.
To answer your question,some time the wildcards are solid favs,which in case we can still use the spread,and some times they are slight favs or dogs with no spread,hence money line could be used,which I did,in my exp a player has to be around a -150 to -170 fav for there to be a spread.But the majority by far of the wildcards seem to be significant dogs.
Odds portal is a useful site,but for some tourneys they wont list the AH for +/-games,just the sets,which is useless..which I know 5dimes has spreads for every ATP match,but it doest say on odds portal,wish there was a historical record for all speads dating back years,then we could do dome serious backtesting,know of any others that might have historical sprad records?
I should start keeping track from flashscore( an invaluable source) of this years records.

[beefcake]

Ok I finished checking,this is a rough record,couldnt check 2-3 tourneys,but it gives us something to go on.
QF/WC 's Home Country ATS record vs seeded players...49-46..

QF/WC ATS record vs non-seeded players.... 90-58...

I would venture to say the ATS vig for seeded players tend to be heavily juiced.alot of value for the wc/QF..might be able to eke out a profit..
Not as much vig on either favoring the Qf/wc's vs the non seeded either...

[beefcake]

Also,I did not check any of the 4 majors..each major has about 16 QFs and 5-10 wildcards,with the 5 setters I think it would be a losing prop,even with the spread ,but maybe not?