[ManeOnFire]

any winners here? how can one possibly be a winning capper? If you predicted Haase to UPSET Verdasco you earned 1.6 units that's crazy!

[Hardcoar]

There are none. One cannot. You did.

[ManeOnFire]

There are none. One cannot. You did.

No I did not bet Haase. Who bets Haase at 2.6 against verdasco?

[Hardcoar]

... If you predicted Haase to UPSET Verdasco you earned 1.6 units that's crazy!

§§§

[Snowball]

this is becase Verdasco has not been in top form and is not on his surface.
Grass, and in Netherlands = Haase not a serious dog.

in the years now i've been posting tennis plays, only for a matter of single days
you can count on a hand have i been negative from a starting basis.
Even now after going full ape on Federer and Joker and losing both, I will
get back to positive soon.

[matt1216]

I like to make it Rain from time to time.

[Hardcoar]

this is becase Verdasco has not been in top form and is not on his surface.
Grass, and in Netherlands = Haase not a serious dog.

in the years now i've been posting tennis plays, only for a matter of single days
you can count on a hand have i been negative from a starting basis.
Even now after going full ape on Federer and Joker and losing both, I will
get back to positive soon.

Wow, you're amazing and must be rich!

Haase is shit on grass. You also overestimate him "at home".

[JC1186]

Anyone who backed Haase to beat Verdasco, at those odds, isn't a long term winning punter.

[PharaohUB]

I am definitely up on tennis long term. I don't post unless I've been drinking, and if I've been drinking I usually post a really stupid play like somebody 10-1. Basically I avoid posting, because #1) it forces me into making plays I wouldn't otherwise make, and #2) I make a lot of live betting plays which wouldn't do anyone good if I posted.

There definitely are winning cappers here. I've learned a ton from people here, plus watching ALOT of tennis. I pretty much watch tennis all day at work. See every tournament that's televised including some challengers. Over time you eventually get a feel for let down spots for certain guys.

One "tip" I can add to this forum that I think is completely overlooked is where players live. I don't just mean someone who has "home court advantage". For example you've got a guy who lives in Florida but represents Croatia playing a guy from England in France in an 11AM match, nobody thinks anything of it. Well guess what It's like 4AM (start of the match let alone when he gets up to warm up) in the morning for the Florida guy and well after breakfast for the guy from England. Jet lag is a real thing. Using this angle with Challengers can make you some money. It kind of seems over looked when the lines are made especially for Challengers.

[girlscoutcookies]

Anyone who backed Haase to beat Verdasco, at those odds, isn't a long term winning punter.

Retarted statement of the day unless u meant backed verdasco. Hard to tell.

[JC1186]

Retarted statement of the day

Illiterate statement of the day.

[gaebiskon]

I am definitely up on tennis long term. I don't post unless I've been drinking, and if I've been drinking I usually post a really stupid play like somebody 10-1. Basically I avoid posting, because #1) it forces me into making plays I wouldn't otherwise make, and #2) I make a lot of live betting plays which wouldn't do anyone good if I posted.

There definitely are winning cappers here. I've learned a ton from people here, plus watching ALOT of tennis. I pretty much watch tennis all day at work. See every tournament that's televised including some challengers. Over time you eventually get a feel for let down spots for certain guys.

One "tip" I can add to this forum that I think is completely overlooked is where players live. I don't just mean someone who has "home court advantage". For example you've got a guy who lives in Florida but represents Croatia playing a guy from England in France in an 11AM match, nobody thinks anything of it. Well guess what It's like 4AM (start of the match let alone when he gets up to warm up) in the morning for the Florida guy and well after breakfast for the guy from England. Jet lag is a real thing. Using this angle with Challengers can make you some money. It kind of seems over looked when the lines are made especially for Challengers.

How do you not get fired if you pretty much watch tennis all day at your job?
Do you work for a sportsbook?

[girlscoutcookies]

Illiterate statement of the day.

Lol. Be more condesending. Fine folks here at sbr

[felix_felicus7]

Anyone who backed Haase to beat Verdasco, at those odds, isn't a long term winning punter.

Always respect your opinion jc but surely he was better than a 40% (2.50) chance of winning there ie value - previous win on grass (comfortable with tabasco serve), playing at 'home', previous decent results there, no??

[PharaohUB]

How do you not get fired if you pretty much watch tennis all day at your job?
Do you work for a sportsbook?

I am a developer/automator and as long as I build something every week that saves 40 hours of company time of people who make as much or more than me I'm valuable to the company. I think by about mid February this year I had done enough things to pay my salary for the year. Plus everytime people go by my office if I'm watching tennis I look like I'm intently doing something. They don't know if I'm watching tennis or writing code. They have no clue if the thing I built took me 4 days or 20 minutes. I'm also underpaid for my role so I don't give a fck. Otherwise I would feel bad about it.

[ManeOnFire]

Check this quote out.

if any skilled forecasters in the world of sports betting really exist, they probably aren't numbered in one-in-tens or one-in-hundreds but perhaps one-in-thousands or even one-in-ten-thousands. Everybody else is just tossing coins, whether they like it or not.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Read Lao Tzu if you want a quote. Even if accurate, that's just opinion colored with imaginary math.

[ManeOnFire]

Read Lao Tzu if you want a quote. Even if accurate, that's just opinion colored with imaginary math.

No it's not although, yes, I would think that with half a brain some experience betting and knowledge of your sport you could grind out a profit for sure.

[SirtySree]

This is why Bet365 and other bookies turnover $100M+ profits on a yearly basis.

Just create a new sportsbook giving out hundreds in free signup bonuses and take the loss for the 1st year, and then reap the rewards after that. Sounds easier than done though.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

You missed the point entirely, but that's OK. I was just commenting on the casual dispensing of meritless statistics that have no basis in empirical observation that people routinely employ in an effort to get their point across, often because the point itself fails to resonate. In this case, your "quote" (which lacks a source that would make it a quote) is making the point that most sportsbettors are making, at best, educated guesses with little success-- a point which without those purely speculative numbers I think anyone on this forum would respond to with "no shit."

Not trying to pick on you, just pointing out there is no wisdom to be found there, particularly when using such a cheap rhetorical argument. Be wary of anyone casually wielding arithmetic to make a point. My issue is not with the point itself, merely with the manner it is conveyed. That is all.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Seriously though, if you want to learn something, you could do far worse than The Art of War!

[Hardcoar]

Anyone who backed Haase to beat Verdasco, at those odds, isn't a long term winning punter.

I find this likely, although hardly necessary.

[Hardcoar]

Lol. Be more condesending. Fine folks here at sbr

Retarted statement of the day unless u meant backed verdasco. Hard to tell.

Your post was one of aggression and preceded that of JC's you dub "condesending", not to mention the fact that his had at least some amount of merit.

[Hardcoar]

You missed the point entirely, but that's OK. I was just commenting on the casual dispensing of meritless statistics that have no basis in empirical observation that people routinely employ in an effort to get their point across, often because the point itself fails to resonate. In this case, your "quote" (which lacks a source that would make it a quote) is making the point that most sportsbettors are making, at best, educated guesses with little success-- a point which without those purely speculative numbers I think anyone on this forum would respond to with "no shit."

Not trying to pick on you, just pointing out there is no wisdom to be found there, particularly when using such a cheap rhetorical argument. Be wary of anyone casually wielding arithmetic to make a point. My issue is not with the point itself, merely with the manner it is conveyed. That is all.

I like you.

[ManeOnFire]

You missed the point entirely, but that's OK. I was just commenting on the casual dispensing of meritless statistics that have no basis in empirical observation that people routinely employ in an effort to get their point across, often because the point itself fails to resonate. In this case, your "quote" (which lacks a source that would make it a quote) is making the point that most sportsbettors are making, at best, educated guesses with little success-- a point which without those purely speculative numbers I think anyone on this forum would respond to with "no shit."

Not trying to pick on you, just pointing out there is no wisdom to be found there, particularly when using such a cheap rhetorical argument. Be wary of anyone casually wielding arithmetic to make a point. My issue is not with the point itself, merely with the manner it is conveyed. That is all.

oh wow I didn't know people cared about that stuff

[ManeOnFire]

The data this guy used is based on a few thousand betting records.

Time to draw conclusions. If ever there was definitive evidence that almost all sports tipsters do almost nothing more than replicate chance, here it is [first graph]. Of course, to re-iterate, none of this proves beyond doubt that no skill whatsoever is operating. This statistical analysis has nothing to say about skill, merely whether a performance looks something like that which could be predicted by chance. It is conceivable that amongst the 6,000+ tipsters there may be a small few who are genuinely doing what they do with more than just lady luck looking after them. Indeed the analysis of long-term records containing a 1,000 or more tips [second graph] shows that, survivorship bias aside, some of them at least might possibly be doing something better than that predicted by chance alone.

Based on a 2500 records or so. Look at how they line up.

Based on a few hundred records. See the punters outperforming chance in the blue.

[girlscoutcookies]

Your post was one of aggression and preceded that of JC's you dub "condesending", not to mention the fact that his had at least some amount of merit.

I have a history with JC he doesn't even know about. Zero fuks given. Cool analysis tho.

[Vinnie Paz]

Girlscout is the man on here. Whatever it is he does works.

[Hardcoar]

I have a history with JC he doesn't even know about. Zero fuks given. Cool analysis tho.

He doesn't even know about your history with him? That's interesting.

Quite indeed.

[Demonata]

I won a bet today in tennis.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

I like you.

Cheers amigo!

[JohnnyRudeboy]

The data this guy used is based on a few thousand betting records.

Time to draw conclusions. If ever there was definitive evidence that almost all sports tipsters do almost nothing more than replicate chance, here it is [first graph]. Of course, to re-iterate, none of this proves beyond doubt that no skill whatsoever is operating. This statistical analysis has nothing to say about skill, merely whether a performance looks something like that which could be predicted by chance. It is conceivable that amongst the 6,000+ tipsters there may be a small few who are genuinely doing what they do with more than just lady luck looking after them. Indeed the analysis of long-term records containing a 1,000 or more tips [second graph] shows that, survivorship bias aside, some of them at least might possibly be doing something better than that predicted by chance alone.

Based on a 2500 records or so. Look at how they line up.

Based on a few hundred records. See the punters outperforming chance in the blue.

Far more compelling than the previous quote, applause!