[Jeff_Black]

Philipp Kohlscriebber -3.5 @ 1.87 at William Hill
1u play

[fitguy67]

nice way to christen the new thread

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks!

Compared to last week anyway haha. Funny Haider-Maurer and Dodig played each other again with Dodig winning, no way I was going to touch that again haha.

ATP Munich: R16
Roberto Bautista Agut vs Radek Stepanek
Set Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut -1.5 sets @ 1.694 on Pinnacle
1u play

ATP Munich: Props
Outright Winner: Philipp Kohlschreiber
2.5u play to return 20u

Suppose I should explain this one a little bit. Had a look at the draw. Its not really easy but it's not really hard either. The bottom half doesn't have Murray and I don't think Murray will win here on clay which he rarely ever wins titles on or tries to anyway. Not only has Murray never won a title on clay he has never made a final on clay on any sort of ATP tour level. Pretty shocking for a guy of his calibre. Adding to that getting married I think it's more of a tune up for the clay Masters and French in hope that he picks up some match practice.
Kohlschreiber has Fognini and Goffin as seeds on his side of the draw, more then beatable players. Having a qualifier replacing Monfils on his side of the draw helps a lot as if he does get past Fognini or Fognini drops out it gives him a great shot in advancing to the final. I watched his match against Vesely and he showed good signs. Sure Vesely probably didnt try his hardest after making a final but Vesely was serving well in Bucharest so to break him easily is a good effort. I also watched his matches last week too. In particular how he put in a good effort against Ferrer despite being outplayed from the back he was able to land the winners and serve well at times. Nerves probably got the better of him but it's good stepping stones leading into a home tournament where he has won before.

ATP Estoril: R16
Feliciano Lopez vs Robin Haase
Total Game Score: Over 22.5 Games @ 1.90 on Pinnacle
1u play

[lucasdawg]

what you think about J Souza v P Andujar ?

[Jeff_Black]

Don't feel like touching a guy who made a final. Backed Kohlscriebber against Vesely because he was at home, goes well on clay and is in good form.
So I think Andujar could lose but wouldn't touch it myself.

[fitguy67]

3 and oh, way to go!...and kohli one step closer

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah it was pretty easy viewing those wins.
I played it a bit safe with Bautista Agut because I know he can be a slow starter but the scoreline doesn't surprise me one bit. Happy with how that all panned out. Will see what we can all find today!

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Munich R16
Andy Murray vs Mischa Zverev
Game Handicap: Mischa Zverev +6.0 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
1u play

ATP Munich R16
Sergiy Stakhovsky vs Lukas Rosol
Total Game Score: Over 22.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
1u play

ATP Estoril R16
Guillermo Garcia Lopez vs Kevin Anderson
Total Game Score: Over 22.5 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
1u play

[lucasdawg]

any perspective on

T Gabashvili v P Cuevas

T Bellucci v D Istomin

A Montanes v G Muller (dont think muller is that great on clay)

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah I looked at all those games and didn't want to have a bar of them with how crap all those players were lol. Every player has big reasons as to why not to back them without a doubt!
I expect Cuevas to win but expecting and it happening are two things I suppose.

[Semper Fidelis]

Thanks for the perfect day today with those picks my man! Love these as well - I actually put a little on Zverev ML @ over +1000; actually think it's worth a small investment considering the huge return if it hits (and I tbinf there is a better chance of it hitting than these odds suggest). We all know clay is Murray's worst surface by far, and it'll be interesting to see his motivation level as we near RG in a few weeks. Really hoping he doesn't show up or retires after losing the first set or something! BOL on these and whatever other plays you have in other sports!

[JohnnyRudeboy]

I hope you like Busta's chances tomorrow

[Jeff_Black]

I hope you like Busta's chances tomorrow

Hernandez is 15/1 on Pinnacle, HEDGE TIME!!!

Thanks for the perfect day today with those picks my man! Love these as well - I actually put a little on Zverev ML @ over +1000; actually think it's worth a small investment considering the huge return if it hits (and I tbinf there is a better chance of it hitting than these odds suggest). We all know clay is Murray's worst surface by far, and it'll be interesting to see his motivation level as we near RG in a few weeks. Really hoping he doesn't show up or retires after losing the first set or something! BOL on these and whatever other plays you have in other sports!

No worries, I was amazed Bautista wasn't lower in general against old man Stepanek who's rubbish on clay and has had a significantly down year.

I do think there is some significant value in Zverev just with a small stake like you said against a guy who hasn't played on clay with the home crowd likely cheering on the German. +6 is massive with that in account but probably about right on the whole on any other surface. Will be surprised if he wins comfortably IMO. Good luck with it!

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Well, in the event of a voiding, I don't really want to be stuck with a flier on some dude I've never heard of before... Which means with my luck, busta will go bust

[Jeff_Black]

Easy win for Busta in the end.

Losing day, not too great. Stakovsky up 4-1 and then was up before being broken in the second too, ah well.

ATP Estoril QF
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Borna Coric
Game Handicap: Guillermo Garcia-Lopez -3.5 @ 2.009 on Pinnacle
1u play

ATP Munich QF
Philipp Kohlschreiber vs David Goffin
Money Line: Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Got a it fortunate on Garcia Lopez by the looks of it.

ATP Estoril Semi Finals
Richard Gasquet vs Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Money Line: Guillermo
Garcia Lopez @ 2.68 on Pinnacle
1u play
Game Handicap: Guillermo Garcia Lopez +3.0 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
2.5u play

[fitguy67]

kohli's strong vs. Murray on clay...1-1(matches)/4-3 (sets)

if youi fully green out the +700 initial position it yields just +107 whoever wins

to me, the value seems squarely on the side of NOT hedging, in effect treating this as a fresh play on Kohli vs Murray on clay with a special +700 price

the choice comes down to whether you'd prefer your -1u/+7u proposition with a 50 to 57% chance of cashing (based on kohli's share of matches or sets on this surface) OR a +1.07u/+1.07u sure thing...

comes down to your risk-aversion/reward-attraction profile...

if you can't bear to lose one measly unit in exchange for a close to coin flip shot at 7u...you shouldn't be gambling...what's the good of taking a long shot...if you never actually let it run it's course and pay out long (cuz you accept a much smaller consolation prize before the very last hoop for the bet to jump through)

full green-out hedging = shortening the effective payout so greatly at the very cusp of collecting on the jackpot...effectively cutting the long-payout off at its knees...

from now on, i never hedge out on potential big-payout future plays...this will yield greater volatility for sure...but better results over the long haul...if for no other reason, you're eliminating one more source of chalk...you carefully selected your initial tourney-winner play on the basis of the edge the price gave you...to be pressured into accepting whatever ML you're convinced you now "need" does not bode well for finding value and it certainly adds an extra layer of chalk...

i say decide up front to let the future play run it's course...you put it on as -1u/+7u...if you ultimately reduce the payout to substantially less than this everytime you get close to cashing it...you're basically turning the bet into a "makes the final" future but at a substantially lower payout...that's not the ticket your researched and placed...why get pressured into it now cuz money you "almost" won is clouding your thinking...

it's better to keep things crisp and clear...if it seemed like a good play when you took it...then let it play out (= let it PAY out) fully
________

just thinkin' out loud here Jeff...helps me sort out a long-standing conundrum...
thanks for the Kohli play to give me the "good" kind of problem

so in a few hours i'll be either or

but i'm deciding now to keep things simple from now on and let the bets run their course and not give Murphy's Law one more opportunity to screw things up...by deciding to fly without a net forevermore I'll never again get stung by the doing it and then not needing it (or vice versa) frustration...i'll decide up front that i will risk the full unit and let the bet play/pay out fully...nothing to protect and full jackpots to enjoy

[Jeff_Black]

Haha yeah I had made up my mind too to let it ride out. Few nervous games leading up to this final but placed the outright knowing full well he could play at Murray in the final.

But anyway I'll likely hedge if Kohlscriebber is up a set. Hopefully stake enough to make back my original stake and a bit more. But I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. Hopefully get something like 2.50 or more for Murray in that case and do it.

Other then that as you said there's no value hedging.

[fitguy67]

that bastid' murray...nightmarish scoreline/odds-line for anyone holding a pre-tourney ticket on Kohli...

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah not a lot of big opportunities to hedge, few small and quick ones who did. Still nonetheless a good week.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...015-picks.html - Onto the Madrid Masters