1. 04-27-15 06:04 AM #1
    kdawgy
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    Couple plays for this morning

    Couple plays for today with a decent amount of statistical research. All live dogs:

    VICTOR ESTRELLA BURGOS +165
    RICARDAS BERANKIS +165
    FREDERICO FERREIRA SILVA +255
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  2. 04-27-15 05:06 PM #2
    kdawgy
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    Well needed 2 of 3 to be profitable and ended up with 1 W and 2 three set losers. Pretty pissed that Berankis played so poorly today, that match should have been his. So many mental mistakes.
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  3. 04-28-15 03:35 AM #3
    kdawgy
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    Card for today:

    Apr 28 MU [8404] JARKKO NIEMINEN +102 (MARSEL ILHAN vrs JARKKO NIEMINEN)
    Apr 28 MU [8408] MIKHAIL KUKUSHKIN -185 (ALEKSANDR NEDOVYESOV vrs MIKHAIL KUKUSHKIN)
    Apr 28 MU [8411] D DZUMHUR -140 (D DZUMHUR vrs A RUBLEV)
    Apr 28 MU [8413] J MELZER +118 (J MELZER vrs STEVE DARCIS)
    Apr 28 MU [8008] L ROSOL -118 (F MAYER vrs L ROSOL)
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  4. 04-28-15 03:54 AM #4
    BennyBigNuts
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    I'm On Mayer big over Rosol
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  5. 04-28-15 04:01 AM #5
    kdawgy
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    It will be interesting to see how Mayer plays in his third tournament back after almost a year off with the groin injury. But I'm looking for him to still be a little rusty and possibly past his prime. And Rosol is playing on by far his best surface. 12-9 in ATP matches and 7-1 in Challengers last 52 weeks.
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  6. 04-28-15 06:56 AM #6
    kdawgy
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    Added a small play on Lajovic after Darcis retired.
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  7. 04-28-15 09:26 AM #7
    kdawgy
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    Wow, Mayer laid down so fast, broken 5 times by Rosol in a 55 minute match. Glad I stuck to my guns there!
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  8. 04-28-15 09:52 AM #8
    Dmoneytx
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    Good call on Rosol. I was gonna slam him bec who the hell would bet on Mayer after that injury? A groin injury in tennis is horrible. But I went with Kushy as one of my bigger plays today. Glad you hit him too.. Rublev played a good match it looked like. He's tough player man & very young. Best of luck rest of the week..
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  9. 04-28-15 04:06 PM #9
    kdawgy
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    Thanks! I added Kyrgios too, that on was fun to sweat out. But all in all great day, would have been phenomenal if Darcis hadn't retired!
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  10. 04-29-15 01:25 AM #10
    lucasdawg
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    what you think of J Souza v P Andujar ?
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  11. 04-29-15 03:33 AM #11
    kdawgy
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    Quote Originally Posted by lucasdawg View Post
    what you think of J Souza v P Andujar ?
    For me it would be Souza or no play. And honestly, probably no play.

    On paper and based on recent play Andujar is a significantly better player on clay right now.

    Really the only angle you could argue is that Souza is a pretty big dog here; and Andujar could be in for a let down after a great run to the Barcelona finals, logging 543 minutes on the court last week in 6 days.
    Last edited by kdawgy; 04-29-15 at 03:34 AM. Reason: typo
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  12. 04-29-15 03:55 AM #12
    kdawgy
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    If you want to play a favorite this morning I like Gimeno-Traver a lot more.
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  13. 04-29-15 04:07 AM #13
    kdawgy
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    Adding Victor Estrella Burgos @1.72 to my official card for today.

    He's played pretty well on clay lately. And despite Janko's great return this year I can't see him having the endurance to play at a high level again today after a 90+ minute three setter last night. Just don't feel like this is a good spot for him.
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  14. 04-29-15 08:46 AM #14
    kdawgy
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    Gimeno-Traver
    Estrella Burgos
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  15. 04-30-15 01:33 AM #15
    kdawgy
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    Plays for this morning. Don't normally play the GL spreads much unless it's a big dog but I like two today with Murray and Rosol. If they play their games (always a big if with those two) they should cover the spreads.

    Teymuraz Gabashvili VS Pablo Cuevas
    Cuevas -3½ -116
    Ivan Dodig VS Dusan Lajovic
    Dodig -112
    Andy Murray VS Mischa Zverev
    Murray -6 -113
    Sergiy Stakhovsky VS Lukas Rosol
    Rosol -3 -116
    Fabio Fognini VS Dominic Thiem
    Thiem +160
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  16. 04-30-15 08:36 AM #16
    kdawgy
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    Looking good so far today except for Cuevas winning but not covering.

    Adding the over 22.5 games in Garcia-Lopez versus Anderson, pretty big. Think if Anderson wins it will involve only one break of Garcia-Lopez's serve, and if Garcia-Lopez wins there is a good chance it will be in 3 sets.
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  17. 04-30-15 11:13 AM #17
    kdawgy
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    And Garcia-Lopez wins in 3! Close to closing out another great day.
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  18. 04-30-15 01:00 PM #18
    bet-lag
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    Dang nice results. You read the favorite spreads well
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  19. 04-30-15 02:53 PM #19
    kdawgy
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    Thanks bet-lag. Been putting a lot of time in lately, so it feels good to see a week straight of positive results.
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  20. 04-30-15 11:48 PM #20
    bet-lag
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    Any plays today? Looking to tail
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  21. 05-01-15 02:25 AM #21
    kdawgy
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    Been so hot lately that I'm hesitant to keep playing big units, assuming everyone cools off at some point.

    That said, my plays today are:

    Gimeno-Traver +5.5 versus Federer
    Also a tiny, tiny moneyline bet on Gimeno-Traver +1100

    Santiogo Giraldo @ 101 versus Schwartzman

    Cuevas -2.5 games versus Bellucci

    Estrella-Burgus +5 games versus Bautista Agut

    Rosol +5.5 games versus Murray
    Small ML bet on Rosol as well at +650
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  22. 05-01-15 03:20 AM #22
    lucasdawg
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    what you think of the goffin and phillip match
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  23. 05-01-15 03:35 AM #23
    kdawgy
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    Quote Originally Posted by lucasdawg View Post
    what you think of the goffin and phillip match
    I think it will be a good match. Kohlschreiber is a slightly better player, all things being equal.

    But I don't see any value betting him as the favorite. Goffin could surely beat him on any given day. There are other matches where there's more value to bet.
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  24. 05-01-15 03:40 AM #24
    kdawgy
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    * should have said: slightly better player ON CLAY
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  25. 05-01-15 03:59 AM #25
    slayer14
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    you confident on giraldo play
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  26. 05-01-15 04:15 AM #26
    slayer14
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    early break for giraldo
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  27. 05-01-15 04:31 AM #27
    slayer14
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    we better hope giraldo keeps focus here he has a known history of losing focus and he ends up losing matches he should win
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  28. 05-01-15 04:35 AM #28
    kdawgy
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    Quote Originally Posted by slayer14 View Post
    we better hope giraldo keeps focus here he has a known history of losing focus and he ends up losing matches he should win
    He was my second biggest play today, yes. But I learned a long time ago things can turn quickly in this sport.
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  29. 05-01-15 04:40 AM #29
    kdawgy
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    Quote Originally Posted by slayer14 View Post
    we better hope giraldo keeps focus here he has a known history of losing focus and he ends up losing matches he should win
    He was my second biggest play today, yes. But I learned a long time ago things can turn quickly in this sport.

    Plus if things get to ugly a retirement starts to become a potential bullet to dodge.
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  30. 05-01-15 04:59 AM #30
    slayer14
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    giraldo was cruising on his serve at 40-15 then he makes stupid errors to get broken typical
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  31. 05-01-15 05:38 AM #31
    kdawgy
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    When you bet guys outside the top 50 you're going to get a lot of streakiness. Usually the best player still pulls it out in the end...usually...
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  32. 05-01-15 06:24 AM #32
    bet-lag
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    Dang not a good start. He got the first set 6-0 too wtf
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  33. 05-01-15 06:50 PM #33
    kdawgy
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    The Giraldo match was a big disappointment. But we got it all back and then some with the Gimeno-Traver and Cuevas covers.

    Still two pending due to the rain in Munich.
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  34. 05-01-15 09:59 PM #34
    bet-lag
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    Any additional plays?
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  35. 05-01-15 10:34 PM #35
    kdawgy
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    Quote Originally Posted by bet-lag View Post
    Any additional plays?
    Lots of exciting matches tomorrow, not a lot of great betting opportunities.

    If you're looking for some action, I'm leaning towards taking Cuevas @ 2.98 and Garcia-Lopez at 2.84. But I will warn ya that when you play guys at long odds like that, even if they play well they can often lose a close match. And if they're off they may get annihilated. Just feel like over the long term live dogs like that will eventually pay off.

    May look at the game line for them as well, but would probably stick with the ML at + odds unless they are 5 or more game underdogs.

    GL with your plays and I'm still pretty high on Rosol if the weather cooperates in Munich tomorrow.
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