[JC1186]

Talking about Serena.

I haven't opposed her since the WTA Championships back in 2013 against Li Na.

But I'm feeling pretty healthy about finally taking her on again.

Of course she often steps it up at this stage of big tournaments (almost like clockwork - very impressively), but a lot about her has been subpar this week. Sometimes those weapons aren't on display nearly as much, but you can still see that they're in fact right there at her disposal on a good day.

I haven't really seen that this week. I'm use to seeing her "off" but I learnt a long time ago not to fall for it. This time (famous last words) things look a little different. In particular she isn't going in for the kill when she has had her opponent on the ropes.

I like how Halep recently said the thing she's working on more than ever is fighting until the final ball and how she was really disappointed in her match against Makarova at the AO (her only loss for the year) because she "didn't fight".

I think she's ready to win the biggest tournament of her career.

I'm already on her for a healthy sum, so that's done.

You guys?

Anyone here confidently on Serena?

[SCI]

I don't trust Halep in primetime on a big stage against the GOAT in her backyard.

[JC1186]

I don't trust Halep in primetime on a big stage against the GOAT in her backyard.

Easy to say about anyone against Serena at home.

That said, why Halep?

[SCI]

Easy to say about anyone against Serena at home.

That said, why Halep?

She's a beast in most tourneys, yet comes up short on the big stages. She reminds me of former #1's Wozniacki or Jankovic.

[makman]

Halep has some serious chance. She had given good challenge against Serena on even faster courts as i recall.
The only problem, Halep seemed to be a little confused mentally, as i observed in her previous games, that is not a good sign for Halep's chances against Serena.
But tennis is a mind game as well as a physical one. Maybe she was getting ready for this expected semifinal clash, who knows?
Anyways, i see some hope in Halep, and my gut says Halep
My money is on Halep. Both for MoneyLine and SpreadLine
But of course i am not that confident. how can someone be confident while backing a WTA player against Serena. No women of WTA has chance against a good and willing-to-win Serena.

[JC1186]

Anyways, i see some hope in Halep, and my gut says Halep
My money is on Halep. Both for MoneyLine and SpreadLine

But of course i am not that confident. how can someone be confident while backing a WTA player against Serena. No women of WTA has chance against a good and willing-to-win Serena.

Haha very well said.

I feel exactly the same way.

Hopefully this isn't a "why the fudge did I actually believe this time I've been witnessing a 'slightly different' Serena that wouldn't just step it up" wtf moment in 18 hours time.

[Hardcoar]

i am the goatchief!

[Honeybadger44]

I'd say that odds are telling the story here. When Serena is at her best and books trust her to get the job done, they don't have any problems putting her in 1.20 range against pretty much any opponent. And here we are getting almost double. To me, that is a sign that books don't trust her entirely in this match/tournament.

I disagree with @SCI about "her backyard" theory. She didn't play 15 years in IW. So despite this tournament being played in her country, she is not that familiar with it.

But, as JC mentioned, there is always that danger with top players. Looking sloppy in earlier rounds of tournament and then stepping their game up later in the tournament. I got burned so many times by that.

Halep has a nice chance, but she has to keep her 1st serve % high. That's a must.

[ManeOnFire]

I'm amazed that the price is this high for Serena. I was impressed by Halep against Pliskova with how she neutralized her power, but against Serena I think the determining factor will be Halep's serve which isn't strong enough. You've made some nice calls though JC so who knows.

[GoBlue77]

serena has looked awful this tournament. already has gone on record as saying she didn't play at this tournament to win it. i feel like she will lose to halep or in the final.

[JC1186]

serena has looked awful this tournament. already has gone on record as saying she didn't play at this tournament to win it. i feel like she will lose to halep or in the final.

It won't be in the final (not against Lisicki or Jankovic) imo. It'll be against Halep, or otherwise she'll win it.

[Hardcoar]

If both players remotely perform according to their last matches, Halep will win comfortably.

[ManeOnFire]

serena has looked awful this tournament. already has gone on record as saying she didn't play at this tournament to win it. i feel like she will lose to halep or in the final.

Not that your prediction is wrong.

[Snowball]

Serena is going to win the tournament because this is her revenge
for the racial insults she and her sister (who is still boycotting it)
endured. She will clamp down and destroy anyone in her way on
the road to annihilation of all things Indian Wells.
Al Sharpton told me so.

[SCI]

I'd say that odds are telling the story here. When Serena is at her best and books trust her to get the job done, they don't have any problems putting her in 1.20 range against pretty much any opponent. And here we are getting almost double. To me, that is a sign that books don't trust her entirely in this match/tournament.

I disagree with @SCI about "her backyard" theory. She didn't play 15 years in IW. So despite this tournament being played in her country, she is not that familiar with it.

But, as JC mentioned, there is always that danger with top players. Looking sloppy in earlier rounds of tournament and then stepping their game up later in the tournament. I got burned so many times by that.

Halep has a nice chance, but she has to keep her 1st serve % high. That's a must.

The "backyard" wasn't a theory. I just meant she grew up in California. She will have 100% of the crowd on a huge stage.

[SCI]

The line is the way it is because Halep has some serious game and the way Serena looked against Bacs. This isn't a slam dunk by any means for Serena. I just don't trust Halep in this spot either. She has a negative attitude if things aren't going well and she just can't flip a switch against Serena like most others. She will need to get off to a good start to have any chance of not getting blown away IMO.

I think there is a better chance Serena destroys, than Halep winning.

[Hardcoar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMZi25Pq3T8

[JC1186]

Serena Williams has withdrawn.

I was THAT close to backing Halep for the tournament @ 5.75 instead. Knowing she'd be lower than a 1.70 odds favourite (as the outright odds implied) in the final against either Jankovic or Lisicki.

Flap! Had 1.6K on it. Imagine if that was on Halep for the tournament. Would have been a HUGE gift.

Sigh