1. 03-02-15 09:32 AM #71
    Cappinpicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by BennyBigNuts View Post
    The injury came in the last game of the 2nd set when it was over already.
    Nothing lucky about the better player winning the match.
    unreal all favorite except linette, looks like she owned h2h for some reason
    Last edited by Cappinpicks; 03-02-15 at 09:39 AM.
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  2. 03-02-15 09:41 AM #72
    Cappinpicks
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    Anybody have a good pick for 12 monterrey wta??
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  3. 03-02-15 09:55 AM #73
    HatersGonnaHate
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cappinpicks View Post
    Anybody have a good pick for 12 monterrey wta??
    I thought you were the capping master. Let's hear your picks
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  4. 03-02-15 09:59 AM #74
    Vinnie Paz
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    I'm on tsurenko, no idea about the qualifiers though
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  5. 03-02-15 10:15 AM #75
    Cappinpicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by HatersGonnaHate View Post
    I thought you were the capping master. Let's hear your picks
    i knew nara was a sure thing lock but wta is normally a crap shoot might as well collaborate, you have any solid pick for qualifying?
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  6. 03-02-15 10:19 AM #76
    Cappinpicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vinnie Paz View Post
    I'm on tsurenko, no idea about the qualifiers though
    rogers seems like value but take larsson if you want a more sure win, looks very free vs shlt bertens
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  7. 03-02-15 10:20 AM #77
    HatersGonnaHate
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    Only thing that looks remotely worth taking a risk on in that qualifying would be rads/hog over or the over 2.5 sets prop for that match
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  8. 03-02-15 10:25 AM #78
    Cappinpicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by HatersGonnaHate View Post
    Only thing that looks remotely worth taking a risk on in that qualifying would be rads/hog over or the over 2.5 sets prop for that match
    ok will try that, a side seems like torture for the 12's
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  9. 03-02-15 10:27 AM #79
    Cappinpicks
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    rad just went from -105 to -130 not sure it means anything? taking Bondarenko seems worth a shot
    Last edited by Cappinpicks; 03-02-15 at 10:31 AM.
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  10. 03-02-15 11:40 AM #80
    Hardcoar
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    It means more people bet on her than bet on her opponent, you f*cking genius.
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  11. 03-02-15 11:56 AM #81
    Cappinpicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    It means more people bet on her than bet on her opponent, you f*cking genius.
    What is your best bet smart ass?
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  12. 03-02-15 01:16 PM #82
    Hardcoar
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    One I like is Mladenovic over Smitkova. This isn't fast indoors, after all...
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  13. 03-02-15 01:18 PM #83
    Cappinpicks
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    is Babos a sure win?
    Last edited by Cappinpicks; 03-02-15 at 02:02 PM.
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  14. 03-02-15 02:13 PM #84
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardcoar View Post
    It means more people money bet on her than bet on her opponent, you f*cking genius.
    fixed it...as you know: markets are NOT "one person one vote", they're "one dollar/euro/pound/yen one vote"...the big "elephant in the room" that makes publicly-available consensus indicators a steaming pile of dung...books may tell you accurate % based on the "number of bets" on either side of a play...but they will damn-near never tell you anything usable regarding the money-amounts on either side of a bet...WHEN books want to to lock in profit/remove risk on a bet, they try to balance the money (not the number of tickets) on either side of it

    _____________________

    glad to have you back around here, hardcoar...got your bookie situation sorted yet?..would love to see yet another edition of your hi-variance/hi-return plays...
    Last edited by fitguy67; 03-02-15 at 02:26 PM.
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  15. 03-02-15 02:19 PM #85
    Cappinpicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by fitguy67 View Post
    fixed it...as you know: markets are NOT "one person one vote", they're "one dollar/euro/pound/yen one vote"...the big "elephant in the room" that makes publicly-available consensus indicators a steaming pile of dung...books may tell you accurate % based on the "number of bets" on either side of a play...but they will damn-near never tell you anything usable regarding the money-amounts on either side of a bet...(when they want to to lock in profit/remove risk on a bet, they try to balance the money (not the number of tickets) on either side of it

    _____________________

    glad to have you back around here, hardcoar...got your bookie situation sorted yet?..would love to see yet another edition of your hi-variance/hi-return plays...
    whats with this huge delay? must be raining like no tomorrow wow
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  16. 03-02-15 02:52 PM #86
    fitguy67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vinnie Paz View Post
    I'm on tsurenko, no idea about the qualifiers though
    Quote Originally Posted by Cappinpicks View Post
    rogers seems like value but take larsson if you want a more sure win, looks very free vs shlt bertens
    will put a unit onto tsurenko...and if/when it hits...will consider rolling it into larsson...thanks guys...

    let's keep this thread going...fitting if a thread entitled "My LAST gash-rackets play"...ends up giving birth to lots more...

    the trick of betting these lower brands of tennis, where "form" (especially service-holding) is much less reliable...is to consider each match the flip of a weighted coin...which very often (certainly more often than with ATP) has a true weight closer to/further from (even if by "just a bit") an unweighted-50% than the price implies...

    ________________
    for example (showing value on a fave, for a change) say the Tsurenko-ML is booked at 1.5/-200, implying a 66.67% chance of a bet on her cashing...if you deem her true chance of winning is just a tad better than that, say 70% AND you were correct...then you'd have an nice fat 5% "edge" by buying at 1.5 over the true break-even price of 1.4286

    a mismatch between the "booked" and the "perceived as true" probability of a bet's cashing is more likely to occur/easy to "find" with the less well known players (and/or, in the case of the women's game--the players lacking weapons-grade serves and ground-strokes, not to mention being prone to menstrual woes a double-digit % of the time) than with the marquis ATP'ers
    ______________

    bet-sizing is key...can't be too aggressive (let the dog odds do that when the value is on that side, as it usually is when "bigger name" plays "lesser name")...cuz losing streaks can be painful...gotta resist the temptation to get "revenge" for and chase previous losses that "shouldn'ta happened"...

    personally i like to play da-broads and da-scrubs TO WIN a single unit...and just persist thru the bad runs till the good runs come
    Last edited by fitguy67; 03-03-15 at 05:17 AM.
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  17. 03-02-15 04:49 PM #87
    slayer14
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    you guys had a look at the wta mexican open matches tonight any interest you
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  18. 03-02-15 10:38 PM #88
    Cappinpicks
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    anything at 1 am in malaysia Benny? looking at buyukakcay
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  19. 03-02-15 10:45 PM #89
    Olemiss_Rebfan
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    buyukakcay she is definitely playing some decent tennis... Gajdosova is a breakable serve for sure serving 40 double faults to 37 aces saving only 50 percent on break points. If anything i believe buyukakcay can win a set maybe take the plus 1 and half sets
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  20. 03-02-15 10:46 PM #90
    Olemiss_Rebfan
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    but that plus 220 looks nice and juicy
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  21. 03-02-15 10:48 PM #91
    Cappinpicks
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olemiss_Rebfan View Post
    but that plus 220 looks nice and juicy
    yea i also heard Georges -1.5 sets? not sold but kudrat is shlt i think
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  22. 03-02-15 10:50 PM #92
    Cappinpicks
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    buyukak +1.5 set
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  23. 03-03-15 12:43 AM #93
    Olemiss_Rebfan
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    okay, well whats up for the next set of bets, hit on first set of Goerges
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  24. 03-03-15 01:22 AM #94
    Cappinpicks
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    injuried ugly muslim bitch sucks
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  25. 03-03-15 01:29 AM #95
    Cappinpicks
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    fat arm c.unt was simple i guess
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  26. 03-03-15 03:07 AM #96
    BennyBigNuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cappinpicks View Post
    anything at 1 am in malaysia Benny? looking at buyukakcay
    Sorry wasn't around on here.
    Bukkake sucks

    Single #399472858
    Tennis - All tournaments for women (Game) Point Spread
    WTA - Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
    Jarmila Gajdosova -1½ (+110) Mar 02/15@10:00p

    Final Scores
    Cagla Buyukakcay 0
    Jarmila Gajdosova 2


    Outcome: Win
    Date settled: Mar 02, 2015 11:56:58 PM
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  27. 03-03-15 03:09 AM #97
    BennyBigNuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cappinpicks View Post
    anything at 1 am in malaysia Benny? looking at buyukakcay
    Weather is gone to shit right now, but I need Dellaqua to close out a parlay and shes losing so a suspension may not be too bad for me lol.

    I'm on this later:
    Carina Witthoeft -120

    -1.5 sets +175
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  28. 03-03-15 03:14 AM #98
    gaebiskon
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    Benny, you WTA expert?
    You're on a roll
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  29. 03-03-15 04:25 AM #99
    Enjoi
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    Dellacqua really deserves to lose this game. Real shitty game she's playing
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  30. 03-03-15 04:42 AM #100
    Vinnie Paz
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    This is what I get for the one time thinking I can trust dellacqua
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  31. 03-03-15 04:56 AM #101
    BennyBigNuts
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vinnie Paz View Post
    This is what I get for the one time thinking I can trust dellacqua
    Needed that pig to close a parlay out.
    She really is a mediocre player.
    Her rally game is so weak she does nothing with 80% of her swings, just straight to the opponent with no purpose.
    Doesn't hustle, takes half the points off.
    The fact she's a lefty may be her only slight edge.
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  32. 03-03-15 05:02 AM #102
    BennyBigNuts
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    Just live bet Wozniaki to win first set down 2-0. Laid -182 but seemed like stealing.
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  33. 03-03-15 05:33 AM #103
    Vinnie Paz
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    What you got in Monterrey?
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  34. 03-03-15 05:39 AM #104
    slayer14
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    what about Sabine lisickis match guys any thoughts
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  35. 03-03-15 05:44 AM #105
    Vinnie Paz
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    Fade her or pass
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