Nadal has not looked impressive whatsoever this tournament. He was broken multiple times against Bellucci and was VERY shaky against Carreno Busta yesterday. Cuevas is playing the tennis of his life. He won in Sao Paulo last week and has steamrolled through this tournament so far. Yes, the one-handed backhand scares me, but this is a hot player playing a cold Rafa and a five game spread seems like a bit too much. So, I think Cuevas +5 games (at -130) is a very good play.