[beefcake]

I intend to go full speed and play this starting on Saturday through the entire season.

I back tested this 5 years back and only 1 year it did not make any money.I played for real midway through 2009 and did pretty well.

The system works like this..

Bet all QF if they are + money in every tourney(3 setters) EXCEPT majors(record for QF is so beyond shitty last 5 years ).Bet 1 unit on every bet.

Do not bet Qf if they are laying juice,If 2 QF's are playing each other,bet the + money,If both are say for example -110..Pass on that match,or watch lines until enough action goes on one player to lower other one to +100 or better,this might vary on timing or how late you stay up ..LOL

I have the stats,later on I will post the past years results.

This system has long losing steaks obviously due to only having to hit around 30% to make a profit.But you only need to hit a few biggies to make some nice profit.For example after the US Open Del Potro lost to Roger-Vasselin at +1900 and Roddick lost to Kubot at +1500..those 2 winners would by themselves would make you enough $$ to play for a LONG time.Only thing is you have to play em all to cover all the bases.

There are alot of intangible advantages to playing QF's,and all of my bets are at 5Dimes,due to retirement rules of only having to play 1 set for payout,when I back tested the system I used QF's winning by retirement after 1 set as winners.
For us USA players they are the best site to bet tennis.

[Fthenorm]

Why does the system begin in QF and not say SF or round of 16? How much stronger or weaker would the system be if it began in earlier or later rounds? Curious, thanks.

[beefcake]

Why does the system begin in QF and not say SF or round of 16? How much stronger or weaker would the system be if it began in earlier or later rounds? Curious, thanks.

Sorry my bad for not defining QF,which stands for Qualifiers,most tourneys have 4-8 of them each,we play them as long as the keep winning matches.

[mminkovski]

you do not follow this system on the 4 major tourneys, right?

[Fthenorm]

What was the positive or negative unit count each of those 5 years? Thanks.

[beefcake]

you do not follow this system on the 4 major tourneys, right?

Correct,Since majors are 5 setters,the winning % is so low even though you get a big upset now and then,you get KILLED long term.Also there are usually 16 Qf in a 128 player draw for the majors and thats around 16 units of bets I dont want out there.

I came up with this system by just being bored one day and thinking,what could I bet on and NEVER lay any juice to the books and not win the majority of my bets and still win some coin(albeit not break the bank)

Since tennis has IMO the most upsets of any sport,seemed like the way to go!

Qualifiers have some distinct advantages over their seeded or main draw opponents.

1.They are already accustomed to the playing surface having already played 2-3 matches there.
2.Are usually hungrier and looking to knock off a big dog and get some recognition.
3.Are veteran players with alot of savvy.,or younger up and comers with a point to proove.
4.Not any Jet Lag that these far flung tourneys take a toll on players that just played other matches 24-48 hours before.

[beefcake]

heres the stats from the last 5 years..

2005
majors..16-59 21.3 % -12.58 units
all others..104-254 29% -17.25 units

2006..majors 22-54.. 28.9 %+0.34 units
all others 117-259.. 31.1% +39.7 units

2007 majors 12-52..18.75% -36.5 units
all others..86-213.. 28.7% +37.8 units..

2008 majors 14-55 20.2% -19.7 units..
all others..90-203 +2.2 units

2009 majors.. 7-40 14.8% -29 units..
all others..108-213..33.6 % +7.2 units..

5 year totals...majors..71-260 21.4 % -97.44 units
all others..505-1142.. 30.6% +69.65 units..

[beefcake]

Correction,forgot to add the us opne for this year.. 2009 majors are 11-59 -32 units..

[Boner_18]

What is the difference between this and a blind bet on dogs? The size of the dog lines i guess? Wondering how all dogs tracked in past years. Interesting.

[beefcake]

What is the difference between this and a blind bet on dogs? The size of the dog lines i guess? Wondering how all dogs tracked in past years. Interesting.

Not sure on the dogs,but my guess would be not to good.If it was that easy,every one would do it I would think.

On a side note,betting under totals on matches where both players(women and men) are -juice long term, back testing has been mildly profitable..Only thing is you have to be a night owl and wait for those totals cause alot of times they are released just before the match.Most times youre getting alot of value there even with the vig cuase the tendancy with bettors is to think since players are so evenly matched it will be a close game,alot of times its a blowout one way.

[beefcake]

Here we go...all plays from 5 dimes..Why? Beacuse 5dimes has the best retirement rules in the biz...only 1 set needed for action...

Brisbane..
Lindahl +475
Reister +178
Ebden +425..

Dogolpolov is -juice so we pass...Rule #1..never lay any juice..
If for some ungodly reason he goes down to +100 or better we play him,but he wont..

Plays in chennai nad doha later on in the night

[sportscash]

Good luck with the plays it seems very interesting.Nice work and thanks for explaining the system.

[beefcake]

Chennai...

Ward +205
Sorenson +190
Armritaj +158
Yang +250

[beefcake]

doha..

kukushkin +700
darcis +135..

[beefcake]

well chennai couldnt have gone any worse..LOL...at least thats out of the way..

Lets hope davy swilled the vodka too much last night..

[beefcake]

2-7 -1.45 units..

Tonight..all plays always from 5 dimes for 1 unit..
Ebden +360
Dolgopolov JR +475

[beefcake]

Dologopolv blew it...Wont be the first time this season..

On we go..

B. Becker +180..

Darcis is - juice..so PASS..

[beefcake]

Dr Ivo just is a killer..Becker wilts under pressure..

2-10 -4.45 units..

Stevie D is the last man standing....plays Nadal...Anyone want to guess what the price will be....?

[beefcake]

On a wing and a prayer...Stevie D +1750

[sportscash]

On a wing and a prayer...Stevie D +1750

Would be nice

[beefcake]

Retirement goes against us..the price to pay at 5 dimes..

2-11 -5.45 units..

2 tourneys next week..Hope we can do better...

[ClydeFontaine]

There is likely a natural bias against a qualifier but like Beefcake stated in his post they do have some advantages.

Would think a qualifier at minus money would be a decent bet at least in the first round since the line is telling you they are better and public money would be screaming to bet the dog against a supposed "inferior" qualifier.

I'd be curious to see the stats on favored qualifiers.

3 out of 5 tends to favor the better player and less variance is experienced there than in 2 out of 3 setters.

[beefcake]

I have thought about that clyde..tracking this over the last 5 years They have been quite alot of QF that were heavys favs that lost as -200 to -400,but i have not tracked how many of them compared to the winners that win alot as well..
Makes sense to what your saying though,it sure would reduce quite a bit the losses.
Yeah the majors with the 5 sets is just a killer...There have been 2 or 3 majors out of the last 20 in 5 years that have made a profit,but in the long run it a NO WIN situation.

[beefcake]

Gil +105..
Matosevic +258..

[beefcake]

2-13 -7.45 units..

[RobbReport]

maybe you need to refine it a bit more.

[RobbReport]

or bet WTA QFers.

[beefcake]

History says that it always starts out slow..Gotta give it time..But youre right I never included the QFs that win at say -150 juice or less,like L mayer last night at -130..thye have been alot of them and quite a few that have lost over the years..

I checked WTA QFS'they did even worse..

[beefcake]

Lemke +290
evans +135
Lorenzi +115..

Chela is - a little vig...play him if ya want...might be worth it...But for record keeping purposes,he wont be played here..

[EaglesPhan36]

I think tennis more than any sport is immune to any sort of system.

[beefcake]

2-16 -10.45 units...

[beefcake]

lammer +375

[beefcake]

couldnt even get a win from a retirement yesterday..

Lammer +210
L.Mayer..+108

[beefcake]

Here we go again...God Awful start...back to the grind to hopefully make some profit with these 3 tourneys...YTD 2-18 -12.45 units..
lines late coming out..

but heres 2 already out..

Vinciguerra +160
Bemelmans +105


v160

[beefcake]

Balleret +425

Wolmarans +185

prpic +105