[JD AMBER]

Long time lurker and reader here at SBR, not much of a poster but going to give it a shot.

General tennis betting principles I follow are not to get too concerned with recent results, fade the public (shocker), prioritize underdogs, and, perhaps most importantly, trust my gut.

I almost never play totals, prefer MLs, will dabble in SLs and GLs. Parlays are few and far between, usually only at majors.

Historically I have done my best betting on hard court and indoor hard court matches, been mediocre on grass, and have gotten my ass kicked on clay. Been following tennis for three or four years now, seriously betting for the last two.

Most plays will be one unit (my book sucks and I get stuck with -120 juice on GL and SL, so I typically risk 1.2 un. to win 1.0 un. per bet) with the occasional two unit thrown in, at least for the beginning of the season. May bump everything up to two once we get through the Aussie Open.

I do follow a few posters' advice on this forum, so my plays will mimic others on occasion.

I find that I typically have the most success from the second round through the quarters or semis.

I'm all ATP, if I ever post a bet on the joke that is WTA, please alert the authorities for it is a certainty that I have been kidnapped.

I irrationally hate David Ferrer. Take every play I make against him with a grain of salt.

I'm comfortable posting my prior plays this season because I'm hovering around a scratch, so no reason to think I fabricated these. I'm also using this thread as my own personal tracker, so I'm going to include them even if it's a slight forum faux pas to do so:

BRISBANE

- Klizan ML +170 over Dolgopolov, 1.2 un. to win 2.04...WIN +2.04 (1-0, +2.04 total)

- Tomic SL +1.5 -120 over Nishikori, 2.4 to win 2.0...LOSS -2.4 (1-1, -0.36)

- Nishikori ML -190 over Raonic + Goffin SL -150 over Wawrinka (parlay), 1.0 to win 2.19...LOSS -1.0 (1-2, -1.36)

CHENNAI

- Vesely GL -3.5 -120 over Haider-Maurer, 1.2 to win 1.0...LOSS (1-3, -2.56)

- Coric ML +190 over Wawrinka, 1.2 to win 2.28...LOSS (1-4, -3.76)

- Goffin ML +170 over Wawrinka, 1.2 to win 2.04...LOSS (1-5, -4.96)

DOHA

- Struff ML +210 over Kohlschreiber, 1.2 to win 2.52...WIN (2-5, -2.44)

- Bolelli SL +1.5 +100 over Gasquet, 1.2 to win 1.2...LOSS (2-6, -3.64)

- Brown ML +120 over Struff, 1.2 to win 1.44...WIN (3-6, -2.20)

- Brown GL +5 -120 over Ferrer, 1.2 to win 1.0...LOSS (3-7, -3.40)

AUCKLAND

- Lu ML -105 over Monaco, 1.21 to win 1.15...WIN (4-7, -2.25)

- Schwartzman SL -120 over GGL, 1.2 to win 1.0...WIN (5-7, -1.25)

SYDNEY

- Pospisil GL -2 -120 over Seppi, 1.2 to win 1.0...WIN (6-7, -0.25)

- Troicki ML +110 over Klizan, 1.2 to win 1.32...WIN (7-7, +1.07)

- Muller ML +115 over Groth, 1.2 to win 1.38...WIN (8-7, +2.45)

I didn't list them in chronological order, but started out winning three in a row, then dropped seven in a row, and last night won five in a row. Combine the fact that I just won five straight and I'm starting my first tracking thread and it should guarantee a losing streak now. It's been a roller coaster already.

[JD AMBER]

I'll typically try to make an early post where I list my leans and put some plays up for discussion, and as I lock in plays I'll post them.

So far my plays are:

- De Schepper ML -125 over Falla, 1.25 to win 1.0

- Kohlschreiber ML +170 over Tomic, 1.2 to win 2.04

I hate that De Schepper just played Falla in qualifying and won, would like it much more had he just lost, as I tend to bank on the zig zag effect from recent matches and performances whenever I can. Having said that, I'm ignoring that because I want to get a bet in against Falla at reasonable odds whenever I can. Think he's on the decline and the fast courts in Auckland benefit the power of De Schepper; couple that with the fact that even a guy who can't return for shit like Kenny was able to win nearly half of Falla's second serve points and it gives me confidence.

And as I mentioned in EP's excellent thread, Kohli betting is pretty simple for me, I don't overanalyze the matchup but generally back him as a sizeable underdog and fade him as a heavy favorite since I think he is prone to playing to the level of his competition. Plus factor in that his first round exit in Doha likely means he'll be motivated to get a few rounds of matches in here before the Australian, versus some guys who might already be satisfied with their prep and are packing it in. In this case, that's not Tomic, unfortunately, and he is a beast Down Under, but that's why we're getting such a juicy payout.

Leans at the moment, ordered roughly from strongest to weakest:

Mannarino over RBA
Bolelli over Goffin
Muller over Chardy
Troicki over Andujar
Benneteau over Pospisil

Any thoughts are always appreciated.

[JD AMBER]

Adding a play:

Troicki ML -260 over Andujar + Mannarino SL -150 over RBA (parlay)...1.2 to win 1.57

Got shit lines on both of these, had a chance to nab Mannarino near EV, blew it. I should play it smart and just play the -150, as I seemingly almost never hit my parlays, but I have confidence in Troicki's resurgence (read: I'm foolishly being greedy).

I was also tempted to take Mannarino ML +165 (again, shit line), but I missed the boat on +200 and while I think RBA could have some slight motivation or focus issues given he has ranking points to think about defending in Melbourne, he also doesn't strike me as a Robredo type who will totally mail it in (more on this next round if Robredo advances to face Lu). I can see Mannarino stealing a set but couldn't pull the trigger on the ML due to 1) RBA obliterating Mann at the U.S. Open four months ago and 2) the WORST opponent to beat RBA on outdoor hard in 2014 was either Fognini or Simon. The guy simply rarely gets beat on this surface by lesser players. But I still see Mannarino pushing him.

Let's hope my parlay greed doesn't burn me, I don't do this very often for good reason.

I'm dropping Benneteau from my leans. I love Pospisil in this tourney and current form, think he'll be making a deep run. I wanted to back him here but was surprised how high the line is given how feisty Benneteau can be on outdoor hard. I like Pospisil to win but think there is slight value to be had in Benneteau, so no play for me.

Still considering Bolelli but missed the boat on the line once again - hate when that shit happens. Going to keep pondering and see if the line rebounds a bit, as tennis lines seem to do. Rubber-bandy, they are.

Am also considering taking Muller on the SL.

ADDED: Bolelli SL -120 over Goffin, 1.2 to win 1.0

[lucasdawg]

have similiar plays, i went against mannarino, i think RBA will do well. also have troicki and bolelli +1 sets

[JD AMBER]

A few thoughts:

1) Should have trusted myself on the De Schepper - Falla zig zag and not gone against it.

2) Got burned by RBA's retirement, my shit book cancels anything that doesn't go two sets. Brutal. Seemingly never goes in my favor, always against. Cost me a unit.

3) Only two leans I didn't play (Benneteau and Muller) both hit. Don't regret Benny that much as I was never that close to playing it but almost pulled the trigger on Muller. Frustrating.

4) I really need to come to a decision on continuing to play SLs or just always go MLs. Seems like an inordinate amount of my underdog SL plays wind up being outright winners (Bolelli), I should start tracking if it's costing me in the long run.

Yesterday: 2-2, -0.99 un. (parlay reduced to just Troicki ML)

Total: 10-9, +1.46 un.

[lucasdawg]

leaning mannarino and del potro tomorrow, bol

[JD AMBER]

I'm actually leaning Kukushkin ML +160...it's a little lower than I'd expected but weirdly that gives me more confidence. Third day in a row playing for Delpo, if he feels decently fit, you never know if he'll decide to pack it in and conserve energy for the Aussie since he's just getting back in the swing of playing again and those upcoming five setters are no joke. I also like the way Kukushkin has started off this year, as well as ended last year, though that matters less given it was three months ago.

Leans in rough order of confidence (most to least):

Kukushkin over Delpo
Benneteau over Mayer
Vesely over Young
Anderson over Johnson

Already locked in one play:

Bolelli ML -115 over Troicki, 1.21 to win 1.05

[lucasdawg]

nice prespective on del potro, i think if he was gonna do that he wouldnt have had such a fight back with fognini, will see how it goes.

[JD AMBER]

True. It's tough to predict if/when he'll do it. On the one hand, he did win this tournament last year, so he doesn't seem to have a problem going deep before the Aussie starts. On the other hand, he wasn't working himself back in to playing shape last year like he is now, so he might not be as aggressive.

I wouldn't be surprised if his plan was to play a couple matches, play on back to back days, make sure everything feels good, and then mail it in so as not to push it too hard right before a major. Of course, the million dollar question is when he will decide that good enough is good enough.

I feel comfortable taking a risk in this spot because Kukushkin is playing well enough that even if Delpo doesn't mail it in, Kukushkin has a shot.

[Pippen aint easy]

Does anyone feel like Lucas Pouille is a good play against Ramos? He looked great against Michael Venus who was serving lights out, I feel like Pouille is gonna go on a tear this year.

[JD AMBER]

Unfortunately I know very little about Pouille so I can't help you there.

Two additional plays:

- Muller SL -120 over Tomic, 1.2 to win 1.0

- Benneteau ML -125 over Mayer, 1.25 to win 1.0

Will be adding Kukushkin ML, waiting to see if line rebounds a bit. Am considering Anderson ML but likely a no play.

ADDED:

Kukushkin ML +150 over Del Potro, 1.2 to win 1.8 (shit, shit line but it makes me like the play more, suspiciously low...)

[fitguy67]

"It's better to remain silent, and be thought a fool...
than open your mout and remove all doubt"...one of my favorite quotes...and one i violate at every opportunity

what does SL stand for, exactly...

[JD AMBER]

No worries...SL = Set Line, GL = Game Line...SL is assumed to be +1.5 or -1.5 sets, I'll make note during majors if it's +/-2.5 or +/-1.5

[fitguy67]

thanks...what i thought, but because the +/-# wasn't speciified, i thot it just MIGHT be something else...thinkin' you know shit you're not really sure about has a way of being expensive when u find out you misunderstood something in this game...

i guess on the SL plays, `you'll know immediately if the stated player is the dog or fave by the plus or minus sign on the set-handicap...

so, for example, in today's gash-baccarat matchup you could quote either
jovanovsky SL -120
or
riske SL-120
and you'd find out that it's jovo+1.5s/riske-1.5s

if i still don't have it, correct me, please

_____________
welcome aboard...btw, i really like the "thinking out loud" journaling style

always good to have all in one place the answer to that most useful of all questions: WTF was I thinkin'?
...i'm looking forward to eavesdropping as you and the other sharp cats here go back and forth on the best ways to buy the tennis tickets this year...

gl2all

[brodie]

fitguy still on his shit i see lol

[lucasdawg]

why against tomic>

[JD AMBER]

Sorry brotha, didn't see your query until now. Simply went against Tomic with the SL on Muller because I was confident Muller would get at least one tiebreak opportunity, plus I generally think Tomic gets a wee bit overpriced when he plays in Australia; too much emphasis placed on his home court advantage.

Pros from yesterday:

- Went 2-2 +0.34 un. (12-11, +1.80), should have been 3-1 but Bolelli choked serving out the match.

- The two leans I didn't play again both won, so I've got a good feel right now.

Cons:

- Bolelli choked hard.

Early leans are:

Troicki over Muller
Anderson over Vesely (why so low again? Johnson is better than Vesely...)
Mayer over Kukushkin

[lucasdawg]

kukushkin played pretty well but then his strategy was simply to pound del potro left hand, will be keen to see what he comes up with. troicki was lucky to win that match i had alot on bolelli..... i hope his confidence levels stay high. think bookies are just waiting for anderson to screw over.. i wouldnt be confident enough to take anderson.

[JD AMBER]

Troicki probabky deserved to win that match even though Bolelli choked it away. Troicki only faced break points in two of his service games, whereas Bolelli faced them in five. That's a primary statistic that I like to focus in on - not just total number of break points, which can be misleading, but total number of games in which break points were faced.

Muller served like an absolute god against Tomic yesterday - a whopping 80 percent first serve percentage, and he won an even more impressive 86 percent of those. Muller has had the more impressive run thus far, but the later we get in these tournaments, the more I like to side with more well-rounded players than dominant servebots. Troicki will likely be the play for me.

Having said that, I'm going to roll the dice early here on semi-servebot Anderson, despite it being a square play, as I think his line will get bet up as the day goes on. Not concerned about him tanking with the Aussie Open coming up...pretty late in the tourney to pack it in, feel like he would have done it already if he was going to. Plus big KA hasn't won a tournament since 2012, so I can see him eyeing the rest of the field and realizing what a big opportunity this is for him, even if it is only a 250.

Plays:

- Anderson GL -2 -120 over Vesely, 1.2 to win 1.0

Not touching Mannarino - Pouille, still pondering the other two matches.

[fitguy67]

fitguy still on his shit i see lol

yeah, took a long layoff from tenny betting...easily the toughest egg to crack $-wise for me...

hope i'm still welcome

[lucasdawg]

other games to look at is also

kei nishikori v gasquet and dolgopolov v verdasco

i like kei but im not too sure how i feel about him hes been playing a whole lot of tennis just before the slam too.

[JD AMBER]

Tough to bet on the big names this close to a major unless there's some mitigating factor, such as (so I believe) Anderson with a chance at his first title in nearly three years. My book doesn't offer the Kooyong matches so I haven't been following the action there.

[JD AMBER]

Went back and forth on these quite a bit, really should be staying away from both since I can at least see a case for both sides, but it's early in the year and I'm betting small and my leans have been decent lately so I'm going to roll the dice on both.

Troicki ML -115 over Muller, 1.21 to win 1.05

Mayer ML -115 over Kukushkin, 1.21 to win 1.05

Troicki simply based on him outplaying Bolelli more than the scoreline would indicate plus Muller served at a level against Tomic that I don't see how he could sustain...Mayer simply on the fade Kukushkin after one of the higher profile upsets of his career, even if it wasn't that big in the eyes of oddsmakers. Hoping for a bit of a letdown factor.

But who am I kidding...these are two degenerate plays. Would rather lose money betting than stand by and watch my leans that I didn't wind up playing win. Money left on the table hurts far more than money lost.

[lucasdawg]

i like you angles JD AMBER! i do like troicki if he stays mentally focus and doesnt become a headcase.

[JD AMBER]

yesterday: 1-2, -1.36 un. (13-13, +0.44)

Play:

Kukushkin ML +130 over Troicki, 1.2 to win 1.56

Slight lean to Vesely in other final.

[girlscoutcookies]

leaning the same way myself. have to think about it more. may stay away from vesely. it's a final and mannarino, while french and gay , has much more experience. bol

[JD AMBER]

It's concerning how easy it is to just point and say "look at who they beat" and then pile into Vesely while not giving Mannarino any chance.

Though I can't help but lean Vesely, I don't like the feel of it, will likely be staying away.

[JD AMBER]

0-1, -1.2 un. (13-14, -0.76 un)

a bit late posting these from when I played them but vegas weekends will do that to you

Pospisil -130 over Querrey, 1.3 to win 1.0

Gojowczyk -115 over GGL, 1.21 to win 1.05

[JD AMBER]

0-1, -1.2 un. (13-14, -0.76 un)

a bit late posting these from when I played them but vegas weekends will do that to you

Pospisil -130 over Querrey, 1.3 to win 1.0

Gojowczyk -115 over GGL, 1.21 to win 1.05

[JD AMBER]

Adding:

Ward ML +320 over Verdasco, 1.2 to win 3.84
Ward GL +6.5 -130 over Verdasco, 1.3 to win 1.0
Ymer ML -110 over Soeda, 1.21 to win 1.1
Kudla SL +2.5 -200 over Lopez + Karlovic ML -160 over Kyrgios (parlay), 1.2 to win 1.72

[lucasdawg]

bol watched ward play against isner prior matches to the slam he was going good, verdasco was also keeping up to kei, will be interesting.

[JD AMBER]

Pretty standard tough start to a major. As I said in my opening post, I typically make hay in 250s and on a sliding scale do worse up toward majors, so nothing new here. Will be treading lightly.

Yesterday: 2-3, -1.62 un. (15-17, -2.38 un.) with Kudla/Karlovic parlay halfway home

Need to stop the slide here.

[mackanlasse]

to bad

[JD AMBER]

Just a few plays, along with the still pending Kudla SL/Karlovic ML parlay:

- Mayer ML +150 over Troicki, 1.2 to win 1.8

- Goffin ML -240 over Baghdatis + Muller SL +2.5 -270 over RBA (parlay), 1.2 to win 1.13

Initially almost hopped on Troicki at a significantly lower price than he is now, but slowly talked myself into Mayer. No real strong reason for this one, just a gut feel and public fade. Likely will regret.