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I only tend to try that trend with inexperienced players scoring their 1st big wins and more so in Slams, although Masters are big deals too. Not the first for Kyrgios obviously. I don't think there's much edge to the Isner-Kyrgios match, absolute coin flip with tie breaks possibly being the deciders.Originally Posted by Semper Fidelis
ill be fading kyrgios
on groth... hes playing shietballs, bol ep
5.7.15 ATP Madrid
Nadal-Bolelli Over 19 @ +110
Yeah I may just stick to the Over for that one - I'm a huge Isner homer, so that may be playing into my thinking/capping process as well. I just know that he usually does well against other strong servers not named Cilic (Kohly also seems to have his number for whatever reason), and I'd argue there is no better server in the sport, at least those infrequent times he's on point with accuracy and velocity, blasting aces left and right, an unstoppable wrecking ball.
Note: for adhd-/ocd-riddled degens...these two selections can be "dutched" (aka. smooshed together) into one effective play with the identical payout whoever wins...in this case
(Nishi OR Berdy) +234.18
by putting 69.62% of your stake on Nishi, and the remaining 30.38% on Berdy...
see http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-t...ing-calculator
1. enter "4.8" and "11" into the "decimal price" fields...if you don't understand what that means...stop reading right now...and praise the lord that you have a chance to be spared...back away from this site now and never return...go to facebook instead and maybe even go outside from time to time
otherwise, shed a tear for what will pass for the rest of your life, and move on, anxiously to item 2.
2. always put $100 into the "total staked" field...and the effective american-format price shows up as "profit"...here "234.18"
Last edited by fitguy67; 05-07-15 at 12:54 AM.
yeah, good ole' primary-school algebra burned into a calculator for us
when a slate of futures candidates are considered like this, as a single play with odds (that automatically take into account that, at best, only one can win)...the effective price on that single "any one of the slate wins" proposition...here just +234 (not near as impressive, or as important to "protect" as the individual prices it's based on...because, best case, one of the stakes must go into the shitter)
anyhow, dutching makes it easy to decide up front to not even bother to burn any brain-cells thinking about a hedge if either one or both of the bastids makes it into the finals...it's just another bet with a smallish stake and hedging against it will just reduce your variance (good) and your payout (not good) on the set of all such plays one makes over the long haul...on balance, better to live with the extra variance and pocket the extra cash as times and tournaments pile up
it IS more fun to try to micro-manage the proceedings in the later stages of a tourney, but long term, there's no way to "fool mother nature" aka. do better by hedging (which involves paying for "insurance") than to just let the selections play (and pay) out fully...including the very frustrating ZERO payout=you lose your whole stake result...but the "laissez faire" policy also allows your to enjoy the full jackpot when it hits...two sides of the same coin...the money you steal by hedging when your original bet actually loses you will MORE than pay back when it wins...in the form of a smaller jackpot caused by paying for a hedge-bet you ultimately didn't need...hedging buys a less bumpy ride along the path paved by the actual success of the picks...at the cost of a lower-performance ride due to the hedging process: a hedging habit SOMETIME subsidizes your loss, but it ALWAYS taxes you in the form of both the stake and the chalk of the additional offsetting plays...whether they appear to "save your ass" or "make you feel stupid for being a pussy" )
________
anyhow, good luck to Nishi and/or Berdy (which one i don't give a shit cuzza the dutched play sizes...)...i've decided, after repeatedly fukking up the "exit strategy" (the "do i hedge and if so how much" stuff)...to just follow what the math tells me and adopt the straightforward "no safety nets, ever" policy...
____________
apologies for "thinking out loud" cluttering your thread...I'm trying to convince myself as much as anyone else...but thought the resulting word blizzard might help someone dealing with the same conundrum...
lemme know if you want me to edit the whole damn thing to "nvm"
Last edited by fitguy67; 05-07-15 at 02:13 AM.
Add...
Ferrer-Verdasco Under 21 @ +100
Granollers @ +483
L.Mayer +3 @ +115
💪
Didn't expect the 3rd set crush job, but will take it.
with the amount of time you put into your math and posts, you better be rich off of bettingyeah, good ole' primary-school algebra burned into a calculator for us
when a slate of futures candidates are considered like this, as a single play with odds (that automatically take into account that, at best, only one can win)...the effective price on that single "any one of the slate wins" proposition...here just +234 (not near as impressive, or as important to "protect" as the individual prices it's based on...because, best case, one of the stakes must go into the shitter)
anyhow, dutching makes it easy to decide up front to not even bother to burn any brain-cells thinking about a hedge if either one or both of the bastids makes it into the finals...it's just another bet with a smallish stake and hedging against it will just reduce your variance (good) and your payout (not good) on the set of all such plays one makes over the long haul...on balance, better to live with the extra variance and pocket the extra cash as times and tournaments pile up
it IS more fun to try to micro-manage the proceedings in the later stages of a tourney, but long term, there's no way to "fool mother nature" aka. do better by hedging (which involves paying for "insurance") than to just let the selections play (and pay) out fully...including the very frustrating ZERO payout=you lose your whole stake result...but the "laissez faire" policy also allows your to enjoy the full jackpot when it hits...two sides of the same coin...the money you steal by hedging when your original bet actually loses you will MORE than pay back when it wins...in the form of a smaller jackpot caused by paying for a hedge-bet you ultimately didn't need...hedging buys a less bumpy ride along the path paved by the actual success of the picks...at the cost of a lower-performance ride due to the hedging process: a hedging habit SOMETIME subsidizes your loss, but it ALWAYS taxes you in the form of both the stake and the chalk of the additional offsetting plays...whether they appear to "save your ass" or "make you feel stupid for being a pussy" )
________
anyhow, good luck to Nishi and/or Berdy (which one i don't give a shit cuzza the dutched play sizes...)...i've decided, after repeatedly fukking up the "exit strategy" (the "do i hedge and if so how much" stuff)...to just follow what the math tells me and adopt the straightforward "no safety nets, ever" policy...
____________
apologies for "thinking out loud" cluttering your thread...I'm trying to convince myself as much as anyone else...but thought the resulting word blizzard might help someone dealing with the same conundrum...
lemme know if you want me to edit the whole damn thing to "nvm"
Ferrer-Verdasco serve fest. Wow. No under there.
brodie lol. Some people like writing. And he's pretty good at it
wasn't trying to insult him. i've just never seen somebody put so much thought into what he plays and how much he plays them for. would just seem like a waste of time if this wasn't, at the very least, a decent secondary income.
Nice one. Franco is on fire!!
econ prof who's taught lots of elementary stats courses for years...
betting on events for me is far more an exercise in applied probability and time-series analysis of the bankroll...than an exercise in sports knowledge...trying to "predict" what will happen is fruitless, but trying to best "position" yourself with payouts that more than compensate for their unlikelihood of cashing is not
this is a guilty pleasure i keep from my colleagues and family...it is a maddeningly intellectually-addictive one tho...and it is my nature to "figure things out by writing it out"...
as time goes on, i gradually lock in more good "rules of thumb" and eliminate the dumb ones that preceded it...this last mini-upgrade of my game dealt with how to handle futures positions (an area where Murphy's Law has always got the better of me)...as a result of a few "thinking=typing it through" word-blizzards i've now happily locked in a new ROT..."dutch all the candidates into a 1 unit flier and forget it" policy...
as to the outcome of all my effort: first of all, i pursue this as a fascinating intellectual past-time that conveniently measures its own success in objective $-terms...the first two years of this, Murphy's Law kicked my ass in that department...the last two years i've recovered most of those tuition fees...big difference is now i play mostly plus-money...and bet to WIN (not risk) set amounts, so the amount i risk naturally adjusts to the prices (big dog=less likely to cash="worth" a cheaper ticket to win my unit)...so my game is now trying to sneak units into my roll faster than they erode by fractions of units...if the play selection "value" thing is there all that's needed is patience...intellectual curiosity of how the whole process works underpins the whole "operation"...the success of which is indeed measured in money, but the overall benefit to me is how it serves as a metaphor for everything as an exercise in navigating through probability distributions...in a word, getting better at $-creation through betting is as intellectually-fascinating a hobby as they come
i don't do facebook shit or blogging, this forum is my outlet for trying to figure out how this shit works...and to clarify the benefits and costs of adopting different policies as a result of that knowledge (hmmm, economics in a nutshell)...
i think & write for a living, so these freestyle "writing it out as i'm figuring it out" blizzards are surprisingly effortless...so worry not about me being adequately compensated...it's fun and money is flowing in the right direction along a naturally-bumpy path...but certainly not enough to quit the day job...
Last edited by fitguy67; 05-08-15 at 03:21 AM.
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Back to being raped today in Madrid. Eesh.
Hey EP here's a few solid plays I feel should at least win 1 but aiming for both ��
Nish/Ferrer o22 -106
Raonic/Murray o23 -128
GL and hope u bounce back from this tourney!
5.8.15
ATP Madrid Dubs: Cabal-Mannarino @ +130
on it with you, EP...
only way i'll ever consider following anyone's (no matter how sharp a cat...er pig, such as you) dubs play is if it's plus-money like this...cuz so damn many of these dub matches end up going the STB-coinflip route...something i'll gladly welcome if i'm on the bonus-payout side of that flip...but hate with a passion if i laid chalk on a side with the expectation that there'd be some decisive superiority exhibited (and i end up instead with a shit-payout on what turns into a goddam coin-flip)
Last edited by fitguy67; 05-08-15 at 05:04 AM.
Yeah unfortunately this won't be a stb - they can't get any points off the opponents serve and pretty much blow Ho hum.
Balls out.
Add...
ATP Madrid Dubs: Pospisil-Sock @ -140
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 05-08-15 at 09:45 AM.
My luck in a nutshell. PopSock dominant& Pospisil rolls his ankle to force a retirement after they broke to open the 2nd.
😔
sonny and cher: "the beats go on"...
EP: "glad i decided to not really bet on single matches and just see how my leans go...er, wait...d'oh"
the biggest obstacle to wealth and happiness in this world is Murphy's Law, lol
Last edited by fitguy67; 05-08-15 at 04:26 PM.
Well got the two futures into the semis. Pretty confident one of them gets to the Final, obviously Nishikori being the better shot of the two. Be very interesting to see if Berdych goes back to being Rafa's bitch after his surprise Aussie win or if that gives him some confidence. Still don't think Rafa is playing top notch, so Berdych could have a shot if he doesn't over think it. Would not expect him to win though, but going to let both ride.
Life is no fun without challenges Professor Fit. Honestly if I wind up breaking even most years in tennis between daily plays and futures, I'm content with that. I just enjoy the game. Winning would be great obviously, but it's not a game where you're going to find guys consistently winning big money unless they lie about their profits. This is one sport where hitting anything above 50% really is pretty solid IMO.sonny and cher: "the beats go on"...
EP: "glad i decided to not really bet on single matches and just see how my leans go...er, wait...d'oh"
the biggest obstacle to wealth and happiness in this world is Murphy's Law, lol
It's probably the most addictive sport when you start betting it too because it is there almost every day of the year to wager on. As I've said many times, most of my fun comes from looking over draws pre-tournament and seeing if I can map out some of what may happen. Some times, it works well. Some times as with everything, you suck majorly.
you got 2 of the remaining 4 horses in a 128-horse race...solid!
wasn't rubbing anything in, E...just lamenting how the expression "man plans: god laughs" (aka. Murphy's Law) seems to rule the cosmos...if you had continued to just post up leans, they'd be sweeping the board...play'em and the usual improbable shit effs up the tickets
and u'r right about sports-betting being an intellectually-addictive form of masochism...and tennis its most wicked version
Last edited by fitguy67; 05-08-15 at 07:00 PM.
5.9.15
ATP Madrid Dubs: Bopanna-Mergea @ +115
u got any leans in the challenger play thats about to start
You got a link for this match?
And dead on futures. Fugg
2015 Profit Margin: -4.81
2015 Futures: +3.20
Hey EP,
Any thoughts on sock-puppet vs simon?
Simon a slight fav. I know sock puppet won a 250 last week, but given italian clay and simons experience plus 2 really good clay matches in his last 2 losses, I think he is a decent fav.
What do you think? Your my early round specialist
I wrote a little bit on that one today. I think Simon unless Sock is able to have one of those other wordly serving days. Once they get into rallies, I think Simon has the big edge because Sock still is mostly a forehand player. If Simon crafts points correctly and forces Sock to play his backhand enough, I think Simon will get the errors he needs to win. Pretty sure Rome won't give Sock a ton of extra pop on-serve to my knowledge.
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